J Grant
Elite Member
- Joined
- Dec 9, 2003
- Professional Status
- Certified Residential Appraiser
- State
- Florida
it seems slightly declining, but imo, to get a true picture the appraiser has to go beyond last years statistics (esp if statistics are not dramatic enough to clearly point to the direction.) although in this case, a number of things within the statistics support the decline..48 previous years sales, vs 29 most recent year, median sales price went down around 10 percent...the deal breaker for me many times is to look at the current lisitngs, partic of homes very similat to the subject. how many listings are there, in rough proportion to the subdivision? how many days on the market? how many price reductions? are any in contract, and if so, which ones? only the cheap ones? the very nice ones? are there starting to be short sales and bank foreclosures among the listings? if the most recent sale, for example, of a home like the subject was for 150 k two months ago, and now, there are 3 listed very similar to subject, two have reduced prices below 150 k, and the third listing with a high price has been on the market 250 days so it doesn't count...that would tell me the market is still declining. there is a point where that is the appraisers's judgement, based on current demand and very recent activity in the listings. if you are in a subdivision with aprox 600 homes and 20 are listed and 4 are in contract, and two out of the four are decent price listings, that market may have declined, but may now be stabilizing., But if you are in the subdivsision with 600 homes and 89 are listed and 2 are in contract, and one of the two is a bottom price short sale, that is a low demand, over supply area heading in declining direction still.