Appraisers Leaving en Mass ?

[valuequestor]

I'm looking for input on the number of appraisers leaving the profession across the country. Several of us were messing with these figure on another thread last week and it looked like a 1.37% overall decline per month and accelerating by a few tenths every couple months in California. Cali does not appear to have a huge block of appraisers that expire within a small space of time.
I'm curious if attrition is going to pick up speed dramatically over the next few months all over the country in states where all appraisers had to become licensed at the end of 1993 in order to do do the bulk of the mortgage work. The initial class of licensee's. That's a big block of appraisers whose licenses expire over the next few months. I know that ALL of my contemporary appraiser friends and colleagues (in VA&MD) are up for renewal in Jan-March/2010. I'm assuming that the same holds true in many other states.

I saw a report for Illinois today as follows: As reported by ICAP, effective 10/01/2009, 31% of certified general and certified residential appraisers in Illinois had not renewed their licenses (due 09/30/09) and about 75% of licensed appraisers (newbies) did not renew. These are scary figures. What other numbers are out there ?

 

[Head Surfer]

I predict there will be a shortage of appraisers in the next few years. Not next year, maybe not the year after, but it will happen.

At that point the appraisers can command higher fees, and decide which assignments they will accept and which ones they will decline.

Meanwhile, diversify your client base, expand the types of services you offer, and upgrade your skills and license levels!

 

[The Warrior Monk]

I think the shortage in the Certified General category may become severe. I see many CGs appraisers in their late 50s through 70s, and few coming up to replace them. I would estimate we're turning down 50% of our commercial requests already.

 

[Meandering]

Heck, there's going to be a shortage of canidates for designations also.

 

[Randolph Kinney]

Renewals are one thing, not actively appraising is another.

Appraisers are dropping like flies.

 

[Steve Metz]

I think a lot are leaving. I have left but will keep my license active.

Looking for E&O insurance as I do one or two every now and then it is double what I used to pay. May be leaving all together for a while.

 

[ewwalter]

Florida's appraisal license expiration date for everyone is 10/2009 so it's a bit hard to tell but I don't really see too many dropping out yet around the Tampa Bay area. Also the number of appraisers in the licensed catagory is minimal compared to certified.

 

[Metamorphic]

Add to this the fact that the expense, educational requirements, and (most importantly) the TIME it takes to get a marketable license have all increased dramatically in the last 5 years. There is easily a 2-3 year lag between recognition of a shortage of appraisal capacity and the production of an new appraiser to meet that demand.

Also, also, I don't know about where you are, but California has changed the rules so that only Certifieds can train (no more licensed trainers), and each Cert can only have 3 trainees (rather than infinity).

Net effect = Substantially more narrow pipeline.

 

[Tom Woolford]

Florida's appraisal license expiration date for everyone is 10/2009 so it's a bit hard to tell but I don't really see too many dropping out yet around the Tampa Bay area. Also the number of appraisers in the licensed catagory is minimal compared to certified.

You've got that a little wrong there fella. All renewals come due in Florida on 11/30/2010

 

[The Warrior Monk]

There is definitely going to be a lag time, but we're well into that. Appraiser's business started to take a major hit two years ago. I would expect appraisers to renew their business at least one cycle to see how everything pans out. However, with each subsequent cycle, former appraisers are less and less likely to renew, i.e., take CE and fork out a few hundred dollars for a license they don't need or intend on ever using again.