Appraisal Statistics: Regression - Do Your Really Know How Much Work It Is?

[Retired-70]

And the asking was probably a good idea for those who would be interested in long term discussions. Otherwise, The reality is that like all other threads it will recede into the archives.

And btw I would venture to say those reading this thread are not walking around in prehistoric loin cloths. These “ideas” are not new to any of us.

Well, then, I guess being on a thread like this, gives you at least an opportunity to vet your thoughts. And I take it as realistic feedback - and like someone else has already stated, the attitude is fuel to companies like House Canary who find it easy to convince the lenders that they are the way forward. Others have already predicted the fallout. But your last statement there contradicts what some others have told me. Again, yes, it is really only about 15% who would be interested in pursuing something like MARS. But, that is maybe 10,000 or so appraisers. - Or maybe only 5K. What do you think?

 

[residentialguy]

What does MARS have to do with Joan?

I didn't quote anything about MARS, I quoted the peeing line, LOL. Haven't you seen all of her posts about peeing? Quite the fetish.

I am not challenging you that there aren't state laws that state that but those would make no sense. An appraiser can be removed from a panel for other non USPAP issues. What if an appraiser has the worst turn time in the world? What if they failed to abide by client instructions? What if they were rude to the borrower? What if they had a parrot on their shoulder during the inspection? What if they peed in the bushes?

If the consumer fills out a survey at time of inspection and before you complete the report it is for your protection( assuming of course you behave professionally and don't pee in the bushes.)

I have seen it argued here ad nauseum... you can't tell me what to wear! I can pee in the bushes and let my dog poop in your yard.

If an appraiser selects that it is okay to pee in the bushes then we will offer a Ms Manners course I suppose.

But I know of complaints filed against appraisers for : wearing a parrot on their shoulder throughout the inspection, allowing their dog to run the few acres while doing the inspection, peeing in the bushes.

Being late, no shows, rudeness , uncleanliness, brininging dogs to run the property, peeing in the bushes, the list goes on.

To be considered a profession those that pee in the bushes..

 

[jay trotta]

Half of US Housing Markets are 'Overvalued,' CoreLogic Reports
More than half the nation's largest housing markets were overvalued in April, meaning home prices have topped long-term, sustainable levels, according to analytics firm CoreLogic

I am not familiar with Berts program or the science behind it, but also wonder about statements like the above.

 

[Evincere]

Half of US Housing Markets are 'Overvalued,' CoreLogic Reports
More than half the nation's largest housing markets were overvalued in April, meaning home prices have topped long-term, sustainable levels, according to analytics firm CoreLogic

I am not familiar with Berts program or the science behind it, but also wonder about statements like the above.

Corelogic analytics Per that article repeatedly implies that (list) PRICE = VALUE

 

[Evincere]

I didn't quote anything about MARS, I quoted the peeing line, LOL. Haven't you seen all of her posts about peeing? Quite the fetish.

No doubt you did not get them ALL but you did find enough to prove your point. To fully appreciate the extent of your pee fetish research re the quotes one should be aware that they span several years and are interjected into a variety of different threads.

 

[Joe Flacco]

I didn't quote anything about MARS, I quoted the peeing line, LOL. Haven't you seen all of her posts about peeing? Quite the fetish.

 

[Carnivore]

Half of US Housing Markets are 'Overvalued,' CoreLogic Reports
More than half the nation's largest housing markets were overvalued in April, meaning home prices have topped long-term, sustainable levels, according to analytics firm CoreLogic

I am not familiar with Berts program or the science behind it, but also wonder about statements like the above.

First let me say I appreciate Bert's thread Topic. Its very good and needed in our community. I am learning a lot about what I don't know.

Well I don't find Corelogic Report of any use at our level. Actually if you think about it , they are not saying anything that isn't already known or maybe better said already predictable. Why? History repeats itself. If the analytics were so correct than who would lose any money in the Stock or Housing Market. There conclusion is at one point in time and its based on historical data. There going out on a limb by saying a decline is in the future in certain markets. That's under the extraordinary assumption that a trend in an area remains the same in spite of other factors that are unknown or at best possibly predictable. How is that valuable to me? Well I suppose it means i should adopt or lean towards a MV less than the highest , maybe mid range or the lowest indicator on a particular assignment using corelogic prediction? That is not the answer. I think the answer is the Lender should use this in the lending decisions/policy ...Not ME. Having said that maybe lenders should steer away from alternative valuation products that are not as comprehensive in those areas.

 

[Artemis Fowl]

A similar series of threads years ago sparked my interest in stats. Self-educating, I embarked on a doomed quest to create an auto-appraise button using excel...laugh...cause it IS funny. The knowledge I gained in the attempt was worth every failed minute. The concepts learned are significant to typical tasks appraisers perform on most every assignment. My understanding is very much layman-level...but at least it's no longer level-0. MARS appears to be the solution to many of the issues I was able to identify.

Keep at it Bert. People are learning.

 

[Michael P Jacobs MAI]

Bert, just to get some context how many of these are you doing and how many traditional assignments do you do in a month?

 

[Terrel L. Shields]

it is really only about 15% who would be interested in pursuing something like MARS.

MARS is unnecessarily expensive. Many regression programs can be better adapted to typical appraiser work.
http://www.realstat.com/

https://download.cnet.com/windows/business-spreadsheets/3260-20_4-101662-1.html