glenn walker
Elite Member
- Joined
- Oct 11, 2006
- Professional Status
- Certified Residential Appraiser
- State
- California
I will play devils advocate let's get away from the $100,000 appraisal and say it sold in a high cost area like where I live and work in. My Subject sold for $620,000 and I had not one single closed sales comparable at over $610,000 but I had two pending sales one at $620,000 and the other at $630,000. Now I appraise it for the $620,000. Three weeks later I get a letter that a GSE or HUD Post Closing Review that had revealed that Pending #1 had fallen out of escrow a week after my effective date. Now to add insult to injury Pending #2 closed at $30,000 less than what its MLS reported price showed. Suddenly I have a valuation problem on my hands. In my area we are already starting to see similar events happening. ** Another problem is Realtors when desperate have been known to start playing games and reporting bogus pending prices because they had a real sale just around the corner they need to come in at Sales price and they hope appraiser will see and use th ehigher pening..Well his price range was so low 90-100k so we were stuck with it, but at a SC of 30k would be pretty unusual , to come in at 299k or 298k
That said, I dont' think 96k is any more or less precise than 95k. They each are a finite numerical amount.
Though we round off for adjustments, and might round off in large value increments, in lower price ranges, each $1000 counts - and in any event, the highest sold price in his example was 96k, not 95, so the appraiser is supposed to be "that good " because 96k was the highest sold comp, so it makes more sense o reconcile at 96k than 95k since we are considering the pendings at 100k -
Another Example: At some point-like what happened in 2007 in my area late in the cycle at or near a market top we may start to see appraisals coming in below both sales and Pending prices-- but we wont know it until month to three months down the road.. Suddenly the Pending Sales were no longer reliable. We tend to get used to a market only going one way if its been a trend for over a year but when it slows down or stops we rarely know it for 3 to 6 months . In 2007 out here we assumed it was seasonable and the spring pop would revive us but when spring came we didn't get the pop as game was over but we just didn't know it.
In Summary : Thread carefully and cover all your bases .
