Housing is Unaffordable for Young People

[timd354]

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I'm limited Redfin data but inventory is still going up. It spiked in 2022, flattened out in 2023, and started continuing higher in 2024. 2025 is starting 7% higher than last year. There is no evidence of demand meeting supply right now.

We look at Redfin data plus a lot of other data and the data that we see definitely show some conflicting trends. However, 6-12 months ago, the data trends we observed in Austin were consistently negative and now that we are seeing some positive trends in the Austin data (in more than one source), it leads me to believe that Austin is likely near the bottom of the current correction (assuming that there is not a recession or an unexpected bump in mortgage interest rates).

 

[Joe Flacco]

We look at Redfin data plus a lot of other data and the data that we see definitely show some conflicting trends. However, 6-12 months ago, the data trends we observed in Austin were consistently negative and now that we are seeing some positive trends in the Austin data (in more than one source), it leads me to believe that Austin is likely near the bottom of the current correction (assuming that there is not a recession or an unexpected bump in mortgage interest rates).

Are you looking at it like this? Because if you are, that is just the normal seasonal pattern.

How you should be interpreting that is that inventory is higher on an year-over-year basis for the last 13 months in a row after being flat to slightly lower in 2023 compared to 2022. There is a good chance that Austin is going to be over 14k homes for sale this summer. There is nothing to suggest that it won't be over 14k homes for sale.

 

[timd354]

I heard some neighborhoods in Virginia are expensive due to DC employment. Must be high paying government jobs.
Reminds me of my daughter telling me of someone she knew there. He said when his father retired, he finally admitted to the family that he worked for the CIA.

That story is not typical. I am from the DC area and my wife is from very close to Langley and numerous members of her family worked for the CIA and everyone in her family knew. Before I knew my wife, I also dated another woman who worked for the CIA and it was no secret. While there are a small number of CIA undercover operatives, there are not all that many compared to the rest of the workforce.

 

[Joe Flacco]

CIA is not exactly high paying. It's the same GS pay scale as all the other agenies.

 

[Fernando]

That story is not typical. I am from the DC area and my wife is from very close to Langley and numerous members of her family worked for the CIA and everyone in her family knew. Before I knew my wife, I also dated another woman who worked for the CIA and it was no secret. While there are a small number of CIA undercover operatives, there are not all that many compared to the rest of the workforce.

Yes that's the place, Langley. Is it a very nice place with big homes. His son is smart, went to private college, and works in Wall Street. HIs family so surprised he worked for CIA.

 

[Mejappz]

Laughable that you being up Switzerland when you have been arguing about the conduct of greedy bankers. It is pretty easy to keep unemployment low and incomes high when your country allowed its banks to keep the treausre that the Nazi looted from Jews all over Europe and whose bank secrecy laws allowed it to attracted huge amounts of capital from illicit soruces that could be laundered through Swiss banks with inpunity and which Swiss bankers were happy to lend back out to the rest of the world to collect more banking fee and interest income and to fund numerous insurers and reinsurers to extract more fees from the rest of the world.

Oh, brother. The Nazis?? You know you’re losing an argument when you bring up the Nazis. Let me guess next you're going to bring out the anti-Semitic card when I make the connection between the Jews and usury.

You still have not answered my question. Do you believe an economy based on usury is sustainable and worth defending yes or no?

 

[timd354]

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Are you looking at it like this? Because if you are, that is just the normal seasonal pattern.

How you should be interpreting that is that inventory is higher on an year-over-year basis for the last 13 months in a row after being flat to slightly lower in 2023 compared to 2022. There is a good chance that Austin is going to be over 14k homes for sale this summer. There is nothing to suggest that it won't be over 14k homes for sale.

Only a clown would ask somebody at a mortgage insurer whether he considered seasonality, like an insurer would not have a bunch of quants and actuaries slicing and dicing the data they look at in all kinds of different ways in order to ascertain what is happening in the market so we can accurately forecast our likely future losses and appropriately price the premiums we charge.

But hey, you looked at a little slice of the free data that your found on Redfin's website and think you might know something that we don't. Good for you, maybe you can post your indepth analysis of the 400+ largest MSA's and the 50 states + DC that we monitor on a monthly basis do we can lay off some of our quants and actuaries.

 

[timd354]

Oh, brother. The Nazis?? You know you’re losing an argument when you bring up the Nazis. Let me guess next you're going to bring out the anti-Semitic card when I make the connection between the Jews and usury.

You still have not answered my question. Do you believe an economy based on usury is sustainable and worth defending yes or no?

I reject your premise that our economy is based on usury. I also reject your apparent thinking that it is possible to even have modenr economy with banking and credit is funded by capital that requires a return (but admittedly the bankers need to be regulated in an intelligent manner). Anyhow, you are gonna think what you are gonna think....good luck to you!

 

[Joe Flacco]

Only a clown would ask somebody at a mortgage insurer whether he considered seasonality, like an insurer would not have a bunch of quants and actuaries slicing and dicing the data they look at in all kinds of different ways in order to ascertain what is happening in the market so we can accurately forecast our likely future losses and appropriately price the premiums we charge.

But hey, you looked at a little slice of the free data that your found on Redfin's website and think you might know something that we don't. Good for you, maybe you can post your indepth analysis of the 400+ largest MSA's and the 50 states + DC that we monitor on a monthly basis do we can lay off some of our quants and actuaries.

LOL You are the one that said 6-12 months ago the data you were seeing was negative but the data you have been seeing in the last six months were positive. When in fact the data in the past 6 months is just as negative.

There is nothing positive about declining number of sales and increasing number of homes for sale.

Or does this also look remarkably consistent to you? LOL

 

[timd354]

CIA is not exactly high paying. It's the same GS pay scale as all the other agenies.

Many CIA agents worked there for 10 or 20 years and then become very wealthy by using their security clearances and gov't experience to obtain extremely high paying jobs with government contractors working on behalf of the CIA and other government inteliigence agencies or by getting directly hired back as a "consultant" by the CIA and other intelligence agencies to do pretty much what they were doing as government employee but at 3x the salary they were previiously being paid. The same thing for people who work over at the NSA.