So I asked ChatGPT a question about our profession...

[J Grant]

It seems to me that to say the user necessarily dictates the scope and expectations of the report has a flaw. Especially when FIRREA dictated to the states to regulate appraisers and to the banks to use those regulated appraisers to value anything supporting origination. From that point on it seems the "users" have fought hard to simply eliminate the appraiser as unnecessary so that we can go back to the S & L days and have a huge fall out like the Great Recession and everyone claim innocence.

So, eliminate the appraiser but require that any bank that fails that all the board of directors and involved salaried employees go to jail for a minimum of 10 years and be banned from finance forever. As for F/F let the top management likewise go to jail. No fines. No slap on wrist. Jail time. Put a little skin in the game and these players might be more cautious.

That will never happen.
The opposite happened with WAIVERS - they eliminated the appasial and appraiser and now the lender has NO responsibility for the collateral vallation, they are relieved of buy back obligation ( they call it relief of reps and warranties.) 100% shifted to on the taxpayer with a Waiver/value acceptance.

 

[bluechip]

I appreciate the responses but some of you are normalizing abuse like it’s just the way it is. Saying they never cared about us so why should they start now doesn’t make the erosion of our role acceptable. It just makes it predictable and predictability is exactly what AI feeds on.

Let’s stop acting like this is about easier forms or some noble push for risk management. It’s about removing friction and we are the friction. Every checkbox we check, every standardized blurb we’re forced to use, every photo we label with machine-readable data is one more step toward making us irrelevant. This isn’t a wave that crashes down. It’s erosion by design.

And for those still clinging to the idea that this is about improving risk mitigation, explain why risk magically disappears when an AVM spits out a number but suddenly spikes when a human applies actual judgment. Weird how that works.

This isn’t fear mongering. It’s survival instinct. And if we don’t start pushing back as a group, not with whining but with real resistance, we’re going to be replaced by a checkbox with a license number glued to it.

 

[Non Sequitur]

This is a textbook example of a danger in using ChatGPT. All it does is compile and regurgitate things that have been posted on the Internet, without regard to veracity.

I strongly disagree. I went to the AMC Expo last year and plan on attending again this year. EVERY software provider is baking in A.I., and many AMCs are already using it to review reports. Heck, one of the companies developing an A.I. solution for UAD 3.6 just had a webinar with some muckety-mucks you rub elbows with. And let's be honest, with the rediculous amounts of data the new UAD requires, if you aren't using some form of A.I. to help, you are all but done as an independent boots on the ground appraiser.

You can dismiss ChatGPT and other LLMs, but the world isn't.

 

[DWiley]

..., explain why risk magically disappears when an AVM spits out a number but suddenly spikes when a human applies actual judgment.

Who has said that? No one that I know of. Looking at the last few years, the vast majority of loans purchased by the GSEs were supported by appraisals (most of which were traditional appraisals). Actions speak louder than words. Of course, neither appraisal or AVM is perfect.

The absolute best way appraisers, as a group, can "push back" on the move to other types of collateral analysis is to produce appraisals and appraisal reports that are clearly superior to those alternatives.

 

[NC Appraising]

I asked grok if appraisers will be replaced in 10 years....

Fannie mae will appraisers be replaced in 10 yrears


I think grok nailed it....appraisers.ConclusionIn the next 10 years, Fannie Mae is unlikely to fully replace appraisers due to their critical role in ensuring accurate, reliable valuations, especially for complex properties.


Predicting whether Fannie Mae will replace appraisers entirely in 10 years (by 2035) is speculative, but based on current trends and available information, it’s unlikely that appraisers will be fully replaced, though their roles may evolve significantly due to technological advancements and valuation modernization efforts. Here’s a breakdown of the key factors:


Current Role of AppraisersFannie Mae relies heavily on appraisers to provide thorough, accurate, and objective appraisal reports to ensure reliable opinions of market value for mortgage lending. These reports are critical for assessing property acceptability, marketability, and value to support prudent underwriting decisions.


Fannie Mae’s Valuation ModernizationFannie Mae is actively modernizing the appraisal process to improve efficiency, reduce costs, and enhance data quality. Key initiatives include:


Uniform Appraisal Dataset (UAD) 3.6 and Forms Redesign: Starting September 2025, Fannie Mae will transition to a dynamic appraisal report format (UAD 3.6) for 1- to 4-unit residential properties, emphasizing standardized data and updated policies. This suggests a continued reliance on appraisers, as the new format requires detailed analysis and compliance with standards like ANSI for property measurements.Value Acceptance and Value Acceptance + Property Data: These appraisal alternatives (formerly appraisal waivers) use data-driven models and third-party property data collectors (e.g., appraisers, real estate agents, or inspectors) to confirm property values without traditional appraisals in some cases. Since 2020, these methods have saved borrowers over $2.5 billion by reducing appraisal needs for certain low-risk loans (e.g., purchase loans up to 90% loan-to-value ratio starting Q1 2025). However, these alternatives are not universal and apply only to eligible transactions.Technology and Analytics: Fannie Mae is leveraging technology, data, and analytics to streamline valuation processes. Desktop appraisals and hybrid models (combining appraiser expertise with third-party data) are becoming more common, but these still involve appraisers in some capacity.Trends Suggesting Evolution, Not ReplacementContinued Need for Human Expertise: While technology like automated valuation models (AVMs) and data analytics can handle straightforward valuations, complex properties (e.g., unique homes, high-value properties, or those in atypical markets) often require human judgment for accurate assessments. Appraisers are still needed to analyze market trends, make adjustments to comparable sales, and provide narrative commentary, as emphasized in Fannie Mae’s updated Selling Guide and UAD 3.6 requirements.Appraiser Development Initiatives: Fannie Mae’s Appraiser Development Initiative (ADI), launched in 2018, supports appraiser training, scholarships, and diversity, indicating a commitment to maintaining a skilled appraiser workforce.Regulatory and Policy Constraints: Fannie Mae’s policies, such as prohibiting exterior-only appraisals and requiring compliance with standardized guidelines, suggest that appraisers remain integral to ensuring safety, soundness, and compliance with lending standards.Potential for Role TransformationWhile full replacement is unlikely, appraisers’ roles may shift over the next decade:


Increased Use of Technology: Appraisers may rely more on tools like AI, machine learning, and big data for market analysis, with their role focusing on interpreting results and handling complex cases.Hybrid Valuation Models: Appraisers may work alongside property data collectors or automated systems, focusing on quality control and nuanced analysis rather than routine measurements.Reduced Demand for Traditional Appraisals: As Value Acceptance and similar programs expand, the volume of traditional appraisals may decrease, potentially reducing the number of appraisers needed for certain loan types.Challenges and UncertaintiesTechnological Advancements: If AI and AVMs become significantly more sophisticated by 2035, they could handle a larger share of valuations, potentially reducing the need for appraisers in simpler cases. However, human oversight will likely remain critical to validate these models and address bias or errors.Market and Regulatory Changes: Shifts in housing markets, regulatory requirements, or Fannie Mae’s risk tolerance could influence the balance between traditional appraisals and alternatives.Appraiser Shortages: Aging appraiser demographics and barriers to entry (e.g., training requirements) could exacerbate shortages, pushing reliance on technology but also highlighting the value of experienced appraisers.ConclusionIn the next 10 years, Fannie Mae is unlikely to fully replace appraisers due to their critical role in ensuring accurate, reliable valuations, especially for complex properties. However, the appraisal process will likely become more technology-driven, with appraisers adapting to hybrid models, standardized data requirements, and a reduced need for traditional appraisals in low-risk scenarios. Appraisers who embrace tools like UAD 3.6, excel in market analysis, and focus on complex valuations will remain essential. For the latest on Fannie Mae’s valuation policies, check their Appraiser Updates or Valuation Modernization hub

 

[DWiley]

You can dismiss ChatGPT and other LLMs, but the world isn't.

I did not dismiss it. I use it quite a bit. I just pointed out that sometimes it spits out stuff that is not correct. As the modelers are fond of saying, all models are wrong, but some are useful.

 

[George Hatch]

I appreciate the responses but some of you are normalizing abuse like it’s just the way it is. Saying they never cared about us so why should they start now doesn’t make the erosion of our role acceptable. It just makes it predictable and predictability is exactly what AI feeds on.

Let’s stop acting like this is about easier forms or some noble push for risk management. It’s about removing friction and we are the friction. Every checkbox we check, every standardized blurb we’re forced to use, every photo we label with machine-readable data is one more step toward making us irrelevant. This isn’t a wave that crashes down. It’s erosion by design.

And for those still clinging to the idea that this is about improving risk mitigation, explain why risk magically disappears when an AVM spits out a number but suddenly spikes when a human applies actual judgment. Weird how that works.

This isn’t fear mongering. It’s survival instinct. And if we don’t start pushing back as a group, not with whining but with real resistance, we’re going to be replaced by a checkbox with a license number glued to it.

The normalization to which you refer has never actually existed as such. IRL "they never cared about your income" IS what has always been normal. Any expectation that they are somehow obliged to reorient their priority stack to favor the economic interests of appraisers is what would be abnormal. And unrealistic, given their role as not-an-appraiser.

The GSEs might actually believe its primarily about risk mitigation but nobody else here does so I don't know who you think you're even arguing that point with. You're rebutting an argument that basically nobody has been making.

And sure, appraisers are fretting their economic survival. I daresay with good cause to fret because by the time the machine gets done with us there may not be enough 1004 work remaining to keep even 15% of us fully engaged. That may not happen for 10 or 15 more years but it's eventually going to happen. IMO

As for "pushing back as a group", that's a pleasant thought. I just don't think the hypothetically unified group of 100% of appraisers would have any leverage when it comes to altering the underwriting programs at the lenders and GSEs. The main thing appraisers DO control is how they perform their own assignments.

 

[CGinMN]

The new UAD will hasten the elimination of the mortgage appraiser. The stated intent to develop something like this will always be “risk management.” However, the additional data that’s collected to improve risk management will undoubtedly be used to automate more valuations and reviews. Automation is part of risk management, they’re inseparable. UAD 3.6 benefits appraisers only if you ignore the jobs lost, fee deflation, and productivity gains that come out of it. So you’re one of the fraction of remaining appraisers a decade from now but you have fewer revision requests. I don’t even know if that’s a natural outcome. It seems the UAD and digital technology created more demands of appraisers, not fewer.

 

[George Hatch]

The use of appraisals has always been about improving risk management. There's nothing inconsistent with throwing more technology at that function.

 

[bluechip]

Some of you are finally starting to see it, but others are still acting like we’re debating theory instead of watching the machine warm up in real time. This isn’t about whether appraisers will be replaced. It’s about how much of our work gets stripped, automated, or offloaded until we’re just a rubber stamp for decisions already made upstream by algorithms. The erosion isn’t coming in 2035. It started the moment “Value Acceptance” entered the playbook and nobody blinked.

To those saying we should “just produce better reports” to push back—wake up. That’s not leverage. That’s wishful thinking. You can write the most airtight, USPAP-perfect, textbook narrative on Earth and it still gets kicked by an AVM that didn’t like your GLA math or disagreed with your bracket. Superior work doesn’t matter when the model is the gatekeeper.

Now let’s talk about that Grok comment. The AI literally gave a corporate-safe, boilerplate PR summary of Fannie’s future—same nonsense you’d get from a Selling Guide. It says appraisers won’t be replaced yet, but our roles will evolve. Evolve into what? A glorified data verifier making $100 a pop while the valuation is already pre-filled and pre-decided? That’s not a future. That’s extinction in slow motion.

The second our data became standardized, it became harvestable. And once it became harvestable, it became trainable. Now we’re feeding the very engine being built to replace us.
So yeah, maybe Grok says we’ll still be here in 10 years. Great. What it didn’t say is how many of us, how often we’ll get called, or how far our fees will be gutted because “the model had high confidence.” That’s the part they leave out.
The ones clapping for UAD 3.6 because it “streamlines” the process are the same ones who’ll act shocked when streamlining becomes elimination. At least call it what it is.