Selling Guide Announcement (SEL-2024-07)

[Joe Flacco]

June 2024 - $875,000
July 2024 - $845,164
August 2024 - $800,000
September 2024 - $815,000
October 2024 - $800,000
November 2024 - $800,000
December 2024 - $805,000
January 2025 - $800,000
February 2025 - 835,000
March 2025 - $830,000
April 2025 - $900,000
May 2025 - $855,000


What is the trend guys?

 

[Joe Flacco]

That is a whole ****ing county with 200-600 sales per month.

 

[Joe Flacco]

This is what you get if you go into a relatively large neighborhood. 15-50 sales per month.

June 2024 - $1,362,500
July 2024 - $1,512,500
August 2024 - $1,300,000
September 2024 - $1,395,000
October 2024 - $1,612,500
November 2024 - $1,246,000
December 2024 - $1,303,000
January 2025 - $1,307,500
February 2025 - $1,650,000
March 2025 - $1,250,000
April 2025 - $1,360,000
May 2025 - $1,539,800

What is the trend on this one guys?

 

[Joe Flacco]

This is the same neighborhood quarterly. By presenting it quarterly, it smooths it out and the trend is more defined.

It shows that Q1-2025 is flat for the first time in 8 quarters. It is the first indication that prices may be stabilizing. But then we saw the same in Q1-2023 and then it jumped higher again in Q2.

 

[Joe Flacco]

Q2 hasn't closed yet but as of right now it is at $1,387,000. So after this quarter closed in five days it will look like this. Most likely we will have two consecutive quarters flat on an year over year basis.

This is the first time this neighborhood is going to have two consecutive quarters flat YOY since Q1 and Q2 2019. It is further evidence of stabilizing.

 

[Joe Flacco]

It's ****ing complicated.

 

[chad hampton]

Depends on the definition of stable.

No one changes MC for each individual report, you? 1 day stable, next day increasing, maybe throw in a decreasing every so often? I hope not.

 

[Joe Flacco]

The YOY data for Q2 and Q3 is most reliable due to it having larger number of transactions. Q1 and Q4 can skew due to smaller number of transactions and throw you off.

If you are looking at it monthly like a fool, then whatever you see in November, December, January, February, and March is going to be less reliable than what you see in April through August for the same reason.

 

[djd09]

Inventory of New Single-Family Homes for Sale Highest since 2007, amid Record Pile-up in the South, as Sales Drop: Homebuilders Face a Tough Market​

Inventory of New Single-Family Homes for Sale Highest since 2007, amid Record Pile-up in the South, as Sales Drop: Homebuilders Face a Tough Market | Wolf Street

its a manipulated market...from the greedy realtors, to the incompetent AMC staff appraisers, to the corrupt fed, and the woke gse waivers...you cannot analyze fraud it will never make sense

 

[Surf Cat]

What is the trend on this one guys?

This is the same neighborhood quarterly. By presenting it quarterly, it smooths it out and the trend is more defined.

Those graphs appear to be the "overall trend" of "all" the properties in your chosen market area. This is the delemma the OP is having....based on their uploaded MC, it appears they grabbed "everything" in the market area. We don't know if the subject is a 2 bedroom "starter" home or a 5 bedroom custom home. Each would most likely provide a different trend indicator. The starter homes could possibley indicate an increasing market while the custom homes sit with extended DOM and have price reductions thus, decline.

My post (#56) is their discription of what they want now.....a different % indicator monthly or quarterly (whatever the statistical data shows), for the comparables depending on what the data purports. You should have no problem as you're very proficient with Redfin Data.....Those low fee, AMC, change the client name no problem types.....are going to have an awakening...