Appraisal Waivers Saved over $2B since 2017 - Per Freddie

[Non Sequitur]

How many times have we been told waivers are a blip and appraisers have nothing to worry about?

 

[djd09]

CU is just a risk assessment tool...every word from their mouths is a lie

 

[alebrewer]

Lest someone think appraisers are the only folks facing extinction due to automation....

 

[J Grant]

Let's ask AI what happens when due to massive job loss across professions, almost nobody can afford to buy houses or condos?
Gee, all that efficiency in RE and hardly any consumers to service. Who woulda figured-

 

[alebrewer]

There has already been a pretty solid shift toward 'trades'.

https://www.npr.org/2024/04/22/1245858737/gen-z-trade-vocational-schools-jobs-college

My nephew just graduated high school, but garnered a few welding certificates while in welding class in HS, and is pulling down ~ $75k with zero college - and doesn't plan to go.

 

[George Hatch]

The trades will likely become oversupplied at some point, possibly within the next 10 years. They probably won't get wiped out altogether, though. Not like the lower and middle tranches of the white collar occupations. AI is going to first devalue those occupations and then replace them altogether.

Imagine being some insurance industry worker filling an administrative or supervisory function, and getting squeezed by your outstanding student loan debt on the one end and a dead-end career track on the other. Your pay won't get reduced outright, it will just stagnate while CPI inflation eats you alive. You survived the layoffs but you + your AI assistant are now handling the volumes the other 7 employees were previously doing before they got laid off.

You were the winner in that crab bucket survival contest. The other workers lost. It will be the most marginal employees who end up taking the hit first. "marginal" consisting of more that just the productivity numbers. If you want to be one of the survivors that will start by being more compliant, more congenial, more prompt in your attendance, taking fewer days off, etc.

I think the corporate leverage of AI could potentially result in even less parity in the employer/employee relationship where only the corporate drone types will prevail.

 

[alebrewer]

Haha. Who knows if we'll even have a United States in 10 years...

 

[J Grant]

The trades will likely become oversupplied at some point, possibly within the next 10 years. They probably won't get wiped out altogether, though. Not like the lower and middle tranches of the white collar occupations. AI is going to first devalue those occupations and then replace them altogether.

Imagine being some insurance industry worker filling an administrative or supervisory function, and getting squeezed by your outstanding student loan debt on the one end and a dead-end career track on the other. Your pay won't get reduced outright, it will just stagnate while CPI inflation eats you alive. You survived the layoffs but you + your AI assistant are now handling the volumes the other 7 employees were previously doing before they got laid off.

You were the winner in that crab bucket survival contest. The other workers lost. It will be the most marginal employees who end up taking the hit first. "marginal" consisting of more that just the productivity numbers. If you want to be one of the survivors that will start by being more compliant, more congenial, more prompt in your attendance, taking fewer days off, etc.

I think the corporate leverage of AI could potentially result in even less parity in the employer/employee relationship where only the corporate drone types will prevail.

When all the former white collar workers get downsized from AI, it will affect the trades because those folks were the customers for the trades .

I don;t believe though that AI will fully replace humans at jobs. More like a few less humans will be needed in some jobs as they use AI to leverage results.
IF AI wipes out white collar occupations, it can also come for blue-collar occupations, such as truck drivers or gig jobs such as Uber driver, when AI is launched for self-driving vehicles ( 5-10 years away but still)

Unless UI becomes a thing the world can not have a 90% unemployment rate, unless we revert to living on homesteads and a barter economy (which sounds pretty nice, or it will be a nightmare of large swathes of homelessness)

 

[glenn walker]

There has already been a pretty solid shift toward 'trades'.

https://www.npr.org/2024/04/22/1245858737/gen-z-trade-vocational-schools-jobs-college

My nephew just graduated high school, but garnered a few welding certificates while in welding class in HS, and is pulling down ~ $75k with zero college - and doesn't plan to go.

Yeah my time in college was a waste but cheap back then paid cash no loans. My degree wouldn't buy me a cup of coffee at Starbucks. The college scam F over so many young people who are indebted with loans.

 

[glenn walker]

Haha. Who knows if we'll even have a United States in 10 years...

A New America but not the United States as we are divided as much as in 1860 and this time it won't be a civil war but the elimination of the two party system.

The entire systems being dismantled
right now it's just very few realize it.
I'm guessing we have about 7 years but what's left of the old Democrats will be confused because they mistakenly think Trumps their problem. In reality Trump is way to Liberal and to much to the left.

Trumps just a vessel being used until the Real Leader arrives and takes control. It's going to be fantastic as by then most of the riff-raff will have died of old age or be removed from the community's they ruined.