First time homebuyers are lowest in history.

[Zoe]

First-Time Homebuyers Drop to Lowest on Record

First-time buyers shrank to a new low in 2025. New NAR data shows younger millennials have lost the most ground, and the squeeze won't get fixed by just lowering mortgage rates.

finance.yahoo.com

 

[Essexfenwick]

They aren't getting married or having children, prefer their devices, expensive vacations, eating out, Starbucks etc. Don't really need to own a home especially not a stinky old cramped starter home in a sketchy neighborhood. Unwilling to team up with a spouse to double income, skimp and save dollars then fix up a starter home.

 

[Zoe]

I think much of it is affordability. People refinanced at like 3% and don't want to sell. People text me and email me all the time wanting to buy my house or want to know if I know any house they can buy. They are either looking to flip or rent.

If you have a mortgage at 3%, where are you going to get similar or better for same money? Inflation is working everywhere.

The interest rate slows (shrinks) the money supply and curbs inflation. Interest rate is most direct way the Fed Reserve Bank can hit inflation. The Fed Funds rate is what the Fed Reserve Bank charges federally insured institutions on a daily basis. The Fed Reserve Bank borrows money from lenders some days and lends to lenders some days. The Fed Funds rate shrinks the money supply with higher inflation which lowers inflation.

 

[Zoe]

Homeowners vs Renters Statistics

National statistics on homeownership & rental properties, including current & historical homeownership rates and rental market trends.

ipropertymanagement.com

Highlights. After a decade of decline, homeownership is up to 65.7% as of the end of 2024, up 4.45% from its lowest point in recent years (62.9% in 2016).

• The nationwide homeownership rate in the fourth fiscal quarter (Q4) of 2024 rate was down 5.06% compared to 2004 Q4.
• 86.285 million out of a total 131.33 million households own their homes.
• 45.047 million households (34.3%) rent their homes.
• Second homes represent 1.25% of owner-occupied housing units; 10.2% of all housing units are vacant.
• After adjusting for inflation, home sales prices increased 102.8% faster than rent prices over a 54-year period.

This is good site:

Housing Vacancies and Homeownership - Homeownership Rates

www.census.gov

 

[Zoe]

This site is interesting:

Renters vs Homeowners by State 2026

Discover population, economy, health, and more with the most comprehensive global statistics at your fingertips.

worldpopulationreview.com

This is copilot:

1. U.S. Owner Occupancy Rate for Single-Family Homes (2026)​

   The national homeownership rate — the share of households that own their homes rather than rent — is estimated at about 65.0% for 2025, with similar levels expected into 2026 DoorLoop. This means roughly 65% of U.S. households are owner-occupied, while about 35% rent.
   
   For single-family homes specifically, the Census Bureau’s Housing Vacancies and Homeownership (HVS) data tracks the homeowner vacancy rate (HVR), which is the proportion of single-family homes for sale that are vacant. As of the latest available data (Q4 2025), the U.S. homeowner vacancy rate is about 1.1% DoorLoop+1. This extremely low rate indicates a tight for-sale market, with limited inventory and strong seller demand.
   
   

   Key 2025–2026 context​

   • Homeownership rate: ~65.0% of all households own their homes DoorLoop.
2. Homeowner vacancy rate: ~1.1% for single-family homes DoorLoop+1.

 

[Zoe]

When you get into first time homebuyers, it complicates things of why first time homebuyers are lowest in history (21%).

That indicates to me approx 80% of homebuyers are NOT first time homebuyers.

I would assume a first time home buyer would have to be owner occupant.

 

[Lil Rhody]

I think much of it is affordability. People refinanced at like 3% and don't want to sell. People text me and email me all the time wanting to buy my house or want to know if I know any house they can buy. They are either looking to flip or rent.

If you have a mortgage at 3%, where are you going to get similar or better for same money? Inflation is working everywhere.

The interest rate slows (shrinks) the money supply and curbs inflation. Interest rate is most direct way the Fed Reserve Bank can hit inflation. The Fed Funds rate is what the Fed Reserve Bank charges federally insured institutions on a daily basis. The Fed Reserve Bank borrows money from lenders some days and lends to lenders some days. The Fed Funds rate shrinks the money supply with higher inflation which lowers inflation.

Affordability and institutional ownership are the biggest factors in the northeast corridor. I see younger borrowers with 65% of their gross income going to housing costs. Its not sustainable. At the same time, cash flush out of state investors are scooping all of the available inventory. Single family and multifamily.

 

[Zoe]

According to a National Association of Realtors (NAR) report out Wednesday, first-time homebuyers made up just 21% of the U.S. market in 2025.

"The housing market remains sharply divided between homeowners with equity and first-time buyers trying to break in—many of whom are younger millennials," NAR Deputy Chief Economist Jessica Lautz said in a release.

Mortgage rates aren't the problem. When NAR began tracking in 1981, mortgage rates hit a record 18.63%. First-timers still made up 44% of the market, more than double today's share, with 30-year rates at 6.38%.

The portion of buyers who are doing so for the first time is down from 32% just two years ago. Throughout the 1990s and up to the Great Recession, it was common for 40% or more of buyers to be first-timers, according to data from the NAR and the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development.

NAR points to a chain reaction: tight inventory has driven up prices, making saving for a down payment harder. The median price for an existing home reached $408,800 in March, the 33rd straight month of year-over-year price gains.

First-Time Homebuyers Drop to Lowest on Record

First-time buyers shrank to a new low in 2025. New NAR data shows younger millennials have lost the most ground, and the squeeze won't get fixed by just lowering mortgage rates.

finance.yahoo.com

 

[KHS445]

Affordability and institutional ownership are the biggest factors in the northeast corridor. I see younger borrowers with 65% of their gross income going to housing costs. Its not sustainable. At the same time, cash flush out of state investors are scooping all of the available inventory. Single family and multifamily.

And who are the sellers of these properties? The parents and grandparents of the kids who are complaining about affordability.

 

[alebrewer]

They aren't getting married or having children, prefer their devices, expensive vacations, eating out, Starbucks etc. Don't really need to own a home especially not a stinky old cramped starter home in a sketchy neighborhood. Unwilling to team up with a spouse to double income, skimp and save dollars then fix up a starter home.