Volumes - What do you think it means?

[George Hatch]

AEI summary

Prevalence of GSE Appraisal Waivers

The use of appraisal waivers at the GSEs has exploded in recent months and now accounts for over 40% of all valuations.

www.aei.org

 

[TC]

I'm not smart enough to figure it out; better call RCA.

 

[George Hatch]

According to the Appraisal Subcommittee:

 

[George Hatch]

Putting them together

In Pre-Covid 10/2020 the total number of appraisals going to the GSEs amounted to about 480,000 out of about 875,000 deals in total
In 03/2026 the total number of appraisals amount to about 125,000 out of about 182,000 deals in total

Total number of all individual appraisers (excluding trainees) in the ASC registry is less than 66,000, with maybe 45,000 of them being CR/SLs + however many CGs also perform SFR appraisals.

125,000 appraisals at the GSEs/45,000 individuals * = an avg of 2.8 assignments per month. Not all of which will be conventional 1004s. And also excluding all appraisals going through other than the GSE pipelines

* feel free to swap out any estimate of appraisers you want for the 45,000; it won't change the math by much.

 

[gregb]

According to the Appraisal Subcommittee (ASC) Annual Report, as of December 31, 2020, the National Registry contained:

• 93,204 total appraiser credentials

The ASC also noted:

• This represented a 1.7% decline from 94,703 credentials at the end of 2019.
• It was approximately 23% below the peak of more than 121,000 credentials reached in 2007.

One important distinction—which I know you'll appreciate as an appraiser—is that the ASC reports credentials, not individual appraisers. A single appraiser may hold credentials in multiple states, so the number of distinct individuals is lower than the credential count. The ASC specifically points this out in its FAQ.
Given your long involvement with the profession, you might find the trend even more interesting:

Year-end	Total ASC credentials
2007 (peak)	>121,000
2019	94,703
2020	93,204
2025	89,618

That's a decline of roughly 27% from the 2007 peak to the end of 2025. The continuing contraction helps explain why experienced Certified General appraisers—particularly those with specialized expertise like VA and complex income-property work—remain in relatively short supply in many markets.

 

[Joe Flacco]

Looking at total originations and comparing it to Georges data, the GSE's had 61% share of originations in 2020, and as of 2025, it is down to 43% of total originations.

 

[Joe Flacco]

They need to halt their loan limit increases for a while and shrink down their footprint some more.

 

[Joe Flacco]

Push them down to like 25% of originations.

 

[CGinMN]

During Covid-Era shortages, we saw 40,000 licensees doing 800,000 appraisal per month, or 20 per appraiser. Currently there are only 30,000 appraisers submitting GSE work. After UAD 3.6 adoption, we could see that dip by another 10% down to say 27,000 appraisers. We could also see time per report increase by 20%, meaning each appraiser's effective ceiling falls from the proven 20 reports per month down to roughly 16.7, putting maximum industry capacity at about 450,000 appraisals per month instead of 800,000. As it stands right now we are not too far off from that.

 

[Joe Flacco]

I think the waiver usage rate is probably going to new highs after the November 3.6 deadline.

If not new highs then at least back to 2020 highs in spring 2027.