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A 10-Basis Point Day is never good

Elliott

Elite Member
Gold Supporting Member
Joined
Apr 23, 2002
Professional Status
Certified General Appraiser
State
Oregon
The bond vigilantes aren't letting 'rates' go lower despite what the Fed wants. With a positive employment number and lower unemployment rate, the bond market moved 10 basis points this morning. The 10-year is 4.76% and the 30-year is up to 5%. So mortgage rates are headed up.

(1/9/25) "Bank of America Braces for Massive Bond Losses as Yields Soar

Barron’s estimates that Bank of America’s paper losses on a portfolio of $568 billion of bonds, mostly U.S. agency mortgage securities, could widen to $111 billion or more, compared with $86 billion at the end of September.

Industrywide, total unrealized losses could top $500 billion, up from $364 billion at the end of the third quarter. These losses involve all banks insured by the FDIC. The total potential losses would still be narrower than the nearly $700 billion at banks at the end of the third quarter of 2022."
 
I don't think it will get over the 2023 high. I still think the 10 year yield stays between around 3.25% and 5% for a few more years.
 
MBS prices are weaker today as well. Not good for rates.
 
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