Declining values? Branson?

[ccooper]

In the past two weeks I have had two different bankers stop by or call my office telling me that we are the only appraisers checking "declining" for the Branson area. We are not seeing values stable in Stone/Taney counties yet. Our area has always had a two year lag behind other larger MSAs.

We did not really see significant price declines in 2008-2009 when California, Arizona and Florida were in their worst slides. It was not until 2010 that we really saw major price drops. It seems to me that our worst slides were in 2011 and 2012 when other areas across the nation were reporting "stable". We did an in depth study...

http://cooperappraisal.net/pdf/homesalesanalysis.pdf

We have not appraised then reappraised a home yet where the values went up in the past year or two. We have seen a couple of REO flips where people have profitted but our matched pairded analysis study still shows people selling for less in a vast majority of cases (in the short term).

I am always wanting to look at more information so if you are checking "stable" please let me know why...

 

[nachocheesefries]

They are liars.....we research it on each appraisal we do...some area's in certain price range's are declining and others are stable....

I will say when compiling data on MLS is both Springfield and Branson...things started making a lot more sense when I figured out that I needed to be comparing equal time periods because this area does have significant seasonal trends.

Obvious to some...but if you are just staring at that stupid 1004MC form...you'll be scratching your head a lot in this neck of the woods.

 

[Riick]

I've been comparing the (moving) most recent 6 month period
Right now 2/1/12 --7/31/12 while in Sept it will be 3/1/12 -- 8/31/12
to same period in prior year. Seems to work pretty well.