Federal Reserve Bank in a pickle

[Zoe]

User

September Jobs Report Ignites Fiery Fed Debate Over December Rate Cut

business.kanerepublican.com

A Mixed Signal: Unpacking the September Jobs Report and the Fed's Dilemma​

The September 2025 Jobs Report delivered a complex narrative for the U.S. economy. The headline figure revealed the addition of 119,000 nonfarm payrolls, a notable acceleration that surpassed economists' consensus forecasts and marked the strongest job gain in five months. However, this seemingly robust job growth was overshadowed by a concerning increase in the unemployment rate, which climbed to 4.4% from 4.3% in August, reaching a four-year high. Further complicating the picture, average hourly earnings grew by a modest 0.2% month-on-month, slowing from August's 0.4% rise and suggesting a deceleration in wage pressures. The labor force participation rate, however, offered a glimmer of positivity, inching up to 62.4%. Revisions to prior months' data also painted a less rosy picture, with July and August's combined employment figures revised down by 33,000. Sectorally, healthcare, food services, and social assistance saw significant gains, while transportation, manufacturing, and federal government employment experienced declines.

This is a good article I posted. Take a look.

 

[Zoe]

Inflation is high, unemployment numbers don't look good. I am sure the Federal reserve Bank looks at many more numbers but it is food for thought.

Inflation says don't change fed funds borrowing rate. Unemployment numbers say cut fed funds borrowing rate. What would you do?

The Fed funds borrowing rate is directly tied to money supply. Money supply and fed funds borrowing rate are closer than white on rice on a daily basis.

The fed funds borrowing rate is directly tied to the real property market and appraisal business.

If Federal Reserve Bank is open, their borrowing rate is on a daily basis to banks. Banks lend or borrow from Federal Reserve Bank on a daily basis.

Banks may borrow today and lend tomorrow to Federal Reserve Bank. Sometimes banks neither lend nor borrow to Federal Reserve Bank. The bank account for a bank is held to Fed Funds borrowing/lending rate on a daily basis. It impacts money supply and real estate market.

Unemployment rate suggests Fed needs to cut rate so more people can be employed. Inflation rate suggests fed funds borrowing rate should stay stable or increase to slow money supply.

See?

 

[Fernando]

The lack of accurate data gives the FED excuse to lower rate next month. Their decision (cutting interest rate) and its repercussions (continue high inflation) will give what Trump wants.

 

[Zoe]

The lack of accurate data gives the FED excuse to lower rate next month. Their decision (cutting interest rate) and its repercussions (continue high inflation) will give what Trump wants.

Trump has no direct control over Federal Reserve Bank as a President. You should thank Jesus for that or whatever you worship.

The man has taken bankruptcy how many times?

 

[Fernando]

Trump has no direct control over Federal Reserve Bank as a President. You should thank Jesus for that or whatever you worship.

Every one knows Trump wants the FED to cut interest rates.
Powell will be out this May. Trump will announce new FED chief before end of year.

 

[Zoe]

Maybe. Idk.

Fed is in a pickle.

 

[Zoe]

 

[Fernando]

If FED decision is wrong, just blame on Trump for the mess in delaying crucial economic government data.

 

[Zoe]

If FED decision is wrong, just blame on Trump for the mess in delaying crucial economic government data.

Idk. I don't know what I would do. Unemployment up and inflation up? Fed's most direct hit on inflation is slow money supply by fed funds borrowing rate to banks. I don't know how they weigh unemployment against inflation.

They probably look at many other factors I have not mentioned. Your talking Doctors of Economics.

 

[Zoe]

I do know money supply has impact on real property values. I am not a smart man by any means but I know love Jenny.