moh malekpour
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IMF Sees US Falling Into Recession
- Thread starter moh malekpour
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Greg Bell
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Here's whats happening on wall street..Wake up it's 1933 all over again...
Borrowed from Housing Bubble........
As we look back upon the events of that spring of 1933, it is clear that to a considerable extent the improvement was due to the expectation of inflation. It did not really begin until after the Administration formally forsook the gold standard in April. It was given a distinct fillip by the action of Congress, in May, in giving the President permission to bring about inflation in any one of four ways. The fall of the dollar in foreign exchange was providing a temporary stimulus to exports; the prospect of higher prices (coupled with the prospect of governmental regulation through the N.R.A) was causing business men all over the country to stock up with goods.”
This time is different however. First, according to government data inflation is largely controlled. The Fed would love nothing more to inflate away our debt, allow the dollar to tank to increase exports, and let everyone “feel” wealthier. Too bad they are running out of ammunition and since Ben Bernanke is a master student of the Great Depression, he’s probably trying to go down this road. Of course, more evidence is looking like we are going to have our own lost decade like Japan’s with a zero interest policy and propping up zombified banks longer than we should. This will annihilate productivity and will allocate Federal resources from more prudent usage such as fixing infrastructure and recapturing new industry to our country. This at least has a long-term benefit. Playing hide the credit default swaps from the public does nothing except keeps us from facing the truth.
“Nevertheless there was a new feeling in the air. Investors who in 1932 had rushed to sell because they thought there might be inflation now rushed to buy for the same reason. The rise in the price of wheat and other crops was restoring a measure of hope to the men and women of the farm belt. The wheels of industry were actually beginning to turn faster, the unemployed were actually beginning to be put back to work.
The rally had its disquieting features, and perhaps the most disquieting was the terrific outburst of speculation which accompanied it. Despite the public distrust of Wall Street, despite the widespread belief that prosperity on the 1929 pattern was false and dangerous, despite the grim experiences of 1930 and 1931 and 1932, the shorn lambs swarmed into the brokerage houses once more in incredible numbers. Where some of them got the money to speculate with was a mystery. More than a few of them, indeed, were shabbily clad; one had the feeling, as one watched the customers in a broker’s office, hanging over the chattering ticker or following with eager eyes the moving figures on the trans-lux screen, that perhaps some among them were desperately staking their last savings on the turn of the Wall Street wheel. The behavior of the market as it skyrocketed upward gave plenty of indication that even if the bankers were somewhat humbled by recent events, the pool managers on the Exchange were not. Some of the manipulative operations in which the alcohol stocks (which were supposed to be about to profit by the coming repeal of the Eighteenth Amendment) were pushed up to extravagant prices - and into the hands of the suckers - were as outrageous as the worst pool exploits of 1929.
As for volume of trading on the Stock Exchange, the amazing fact was that during the two successive months of June and July 1933, this was greater than it had been in any month of 1929 except the panic month of October. On no less than nineteen days during 1933 the daily volume of trading was more than six million shares - a strange phenomenon when one considers that there never had been even a single four-million share day until the bull-market frenzy of 1928. Speculation in the commodity markets was similarly feverish and unashamed.
Borrowed from Housing Bubble........
As we look back upon the events of that spring of 1933, it is clear that to a considerable extent the improvement was due to the expectation of inflation. It did not really begin until after the Administration formally forsook the gold standard in April. It was given a distinct fillip by the action of Congress, in May, in giving the President permission to bring about inflation in any one of four ways. The fall of the dollar in foreign exchange was providing a temporary stimulus to exports; the prospect of higher prices (coupled with the prospect of governmental regulation through the N.R.A) was causing business men all over the country to stock up with goods.”
This time is different however. First, according to government data inflation is largely controlled. The Fed would love nothing more to inflate away our debt, allow the dollar to tank to increase exports, and let everyone “feel” wealthier. Too bad they are running out of ammunition and since Ben Bernanke is a master student of the Great Depression, he’s probably trying to go down this road. Of course, more evidence is looking like we are going to have our own lost decade like Japan’s with a zero interest policy and propping up zombified banks longer than we should. This will annihilate productivity and will allocate Federal resources from more prudent usage such as fixing infrastructure and recapturing new industry to our country. This at least has a long-term benefit. Playing hide the credit default swaps from the public does nothing except keeps us from facing the truth.
“Nevertheless there was a new feeling in the air. Investors who in 1932 had rushed to sell because they thought there might be inflation now rushed to buy for the same reason. The rise in the price of wheat and other crops was restoring a measure of hope to the men and women of the farm belt. The wheels of industry were actually beginning to turn faster, the unemployed were actually beginning to be put back to work.
The rally had its disquieting features, and perhaps the most disquieting was the terrific outburst of speculation which accompanied it. Despite the public distrust of Wall Street, despite the widespread belief that prosperity on the 1929 pattern was false and dangerous, despite the grim experiences of 1930 and 1931 and 1932, the shorn lambs swarmed into the brokerage houses once more in incredible numbers. Where some of them got the money to speculate with was a mystery. More than a few of them, indeed, were shabbily clad; one had the feeling, as one watched the customers in a broker’s office, hanging over the chattering ticker or following with eager eyes the moving figures on the trans-lux screen, that perhaps some among them were desperately staking their last savings on the turn of the Wall Street wheel. The behavior of the market as it skyrocketed upward gave plenty of indication that even if the bankers were somewhat humbled by recent events, the pool managers on the Exchange were not. Some of the manipulative operations in which the alcohol stocks (which were supposed to be about to profit by the coming repeal of the Eighteenth Amendment) were pushed up to extravagant prices - and into the hands of the suckers - were as outrageous as the worst pool exploits of 1929.
As for volume of trading on the Stock Exchange, the amazing fact was that during the two successive months of June and July 1933, this was greater than it had been in any month of 1929 except the panic month of October. On no less than nineteen days during 1933 the daily volume of trading was more than six million shares - a strange phenomenon when one considers that there never had been even a single four-million share day until the bull-market frenzy of 1928. Speculation in the commodity markets was similarly feverish and unashamed.
Lloyd Bonafide
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So you're saying that any economic problems we may be facing aren't going to be contained in the sub-prime loan area? 
Lloyd Bonafide
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S&P sees oil at $91 at year-end, U.S. in a recession
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/sto...x?guid={BA5DA189-56FA-47D0-A468-71F9E9E5806E}
Oil at $41 per barrel by Christmas would be fairly decent! :new_xmas:
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/sto...x?guid={BA5DA189-56FA-47D0-A468-71F9E9E5806E}
Oil at $41 per barrel by Christmas would be fairly decent! :new_xmas:
Scott Kibler
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I don't know about 1933 but the 1970's seem to be coming into vogue.
Does Barack know anything about peanuts?
Does Barack know anything about peanuts?
Lloyd Bonafide
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http://www.bea.gov/newsreleases/national/gdp/gdpnewsrelease.htm
The Government says "No Recession Yet".
Of course, these figures may be revised at a later date, and your mileage may vary.
:new_microwave:
The Government says "No Recession Yet".
Of course, these figures may be revised at a later date, and your mileage may vary.
:new_microwave:
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