Market Stagnating

[jay trotta]

For the first time in a few years there are now more houses on the market For Sale and lots of Realtors complainin.

Does anybody feel, Greenspan & flim flam go together :question:

We gots Dubya tellin everybody the economy is rollin along, yet more & more are being laid off; the two Politicians are talkin bout 30 year old stuff - I could care less about and the housing market & stock market are at a Hold - now.

Interest rates are and have bean on the rise; auto loans are now bein misused and the take backs on those will happen within the next year; used car guys are shufflin the low interest hoopla onto the public, with "buydowns" (I believe it's the old "Bait & Switch") added right into the price; a typical buyer won't catch on till it's too late.

Ifn anybody gits busy, put yer money away, next year is gonna be prime time to buy those Forclosure/ PreFoclosure & Banckruptcy deals - oh yea, there's gonna be a wide selection.


h34r:

 

[Steve Wyrick]

Jay it all depends on what part of the country you are in.

 

[Ray Miller]

I am seeing more REO every week.

I am getting more faxes from wholesalers offering trailer loads of product to sell at auction; Hardgoods wholesale price $28,496.49 780 pieces my cost for the simi trailer $3135.00; 50 pallets of Home Decor goods trailer load $5500: Trailer load of Sproting goods Name brands New 1200 pieces $4200.00

I am seeing more and more people out of work, more and more cars and trucks in peoples yards for sale.

Seeing more and more signs in yards price reduced.

My banker tells me savings accounts are at an all time low at his bank that has been in business for over a 100 years. Took a little ride with him through the country the other day. I was talking about all the new houses going up on such and such farms. His response was; yep we loan the kids the money to build that nice big over size new house, but if they should stub their toe, not only will we own the new house but mom and dads house and the 160 acres. Because mom and dad back son and daughter in law or daughter and son in law for the new house on their farm stead. That was the only way we would loan the money.

It may look rosey to some, but I have a fear that the good times are about to end. If you don't have a bit of jingle in your pocket, an old can or two or fruit jar out in the back yard with some folding greenbacks or a bit of gold or silver. Those gold cards don't count. You may be in for a bit of a problem. Any one remember the 70's. Jobs were hard to find, Interest was double didgit. The homeless were out and about.

I read almost every day in the paper that some food pantry has run out of food. I think it is going to be or may well be a very long cold and dark winter for many. Hope I am wrong.

A couple other thing, talk to a guy today who is going out of business after 31 years. Retail. Everything in the store is market down 50% to 75% and it not moving. He is going to book an auction with us. Another thing we are seeing is the horse market is as bad as it has been in 44 years. I head tell the boat business is seeing the same thing. Got some boat dealers that want to give us there trade ins, just to get them off the lot. There not selling. Get what ever you can for them and give us 20% of the take.

 

[Richard Carlsen]

Ray posted:

I am seeing more REO every week.

Current repossessions are not the result of the current economic climate. They are the result of the slowdown in the economy during the past 18 to 36 months. Folks can hang on for a while and banks will ride with them if there is a attempt. What we are seeing now is due to the economic slowdown that began in the last 6 months of the Clinton Administration and was exacerbated by the events of 9/11.

It has been my experience over the past 30 years in the business that this will take 18 months or so to clear up. It will take at least 12 to 18 months to get the inventories of homes on the market down to where the market is in balance.

 

[Karl]

How soon we forget Anyone still got any of thier data from the 80's & not the 1880's, ONLY difference is the Intrest Rate. However Regardless of the rate although because of the LOW RATE many purchased more home therefore creating more overall cost Higher property tax, larger home higher heat & cooling bill, ETC ETC
We have a guy that was a SENATOR for 20 years that did NOTHING to fix problems during that time now he is going to CURE all in first 180 days.

Anyone believing that should buy some of this prime Ocean Front property I got here in Arizona. (hey my water view, some call it a pool with a fountain but there isn't as much value in a pool) has salt water & waves, Salt & waves are found in the ocean, so properly written in the MLS could work.

 

[liznindy]

The economy is not all gloom and doom (in my opinon). Jobless rate is relatively low....The reason for foreclosures is not due only to the economy.

People have overextended themselves with the continued availability of low interest rates and the onslaught of credit card offerings....they have taken out the equity in their homes and spent that as well.

Folks are living above their means and it doesn't matter what the economy is doing....You can't do that forever. Sooner or later it will catch up to you.

Just as it will to our country. Why is the country (and our state) out of money? I'm sure they are collecting more and more taxes each year but are spending more and more as well. It's not rocket science, just simple math. Anyone who can balance a checkbook could see where the problem lies.

I understand the need to spend in war time, but I'm positive there is waste in other areas.


What really makes me sick is the when the politicians say the tax breaks that Bush gave benefit the rich. Heck, most of those who received the child credits probably don't even pay taxes but get a Earned Income Credit as well! (Can you tell I just paid my quarterly taxes?

Don't have a problem with paying my fair share...just wish those in power (especially in my state) would realize that someone had to work for that money and spend it wisely!!

 

[Karl]

TOTALLY agree it is more the I WANT, I NEED, I'M GOING TO HAVE mentality of todays buyers. Simplicity of financing EVERYTHING from the home down to the water sprinkler for the lawn. Home Depot 12 months no payment on ANYTHING as long as total purchase exceeds 299.00 You can do this as many times as U want until the offer expires.

However the word GREED is also added to the formula

I quote a RE Agent "What do U care if there paying to much? These people are from CT. they THINK they are getting a GREAT deal. You of all people know how much those IDIOTS pay back there for a home."

 

[Terrel L. Shields]

As long as banks are eagar to loan money and have money to loan, borrowers are not scarce. And it is liquidity that will crash a market. When the lenders get too scared to lend, Katy bar the door. Seen some scary things recently. Couple with very high income getting divorce...in all, they are about $400,000 more in debt than assets...and were planning to buy another piece of land!! They did not even realize they were in such a pickle...and neither did their bank apparently. And I smell bankruptcy combined with divorce court.

Another one was large land tract I was asked to appraise. Seems the owners were partners and one borrowed against the tract and forged the names of the other partners. Now they are threatening to sue if he does not buy them out at big price....far more than it is worth. They both are going to get screwed if they dilly dally around much longer.

We are blessed with builders and developers not bright enough to be builders, like one I know who built near an airport and now cannot find any secondary market lenders who will loan on new houses there, and carpenters who cannot use a square, or built a square house as a result. Even found one with a slab that was long by 2 inches on one side, so they left a gap and tried to cover it with wood shims.