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Monumental Step Forward?

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Non Sequitur

Elite Member
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Joined
Feb 14, 2002
Professional Status
Certified Residential Appraiser
State
Louisiana
Hyperbole or reality for AMCs?

Whether you want to complete desktops or not, AMCs have the big stick. They have captured the market, control the workflow, and will send these to willing staff and trickle overflow to indie "partners". The only chance we have to level the playing field is if the GSEs adopt the VA appraisal system.

 
Might be time to read "The Big Short" again - or at least watch the movie.
Multiple adjustable rate mortgages to strippers aren’t a thing this time around. If the real estate market pops again, I don’t think it will revolve around collateral.
 
I don't understand why we're so up in arms over this. I don't need to inspect a home that's listed on the MLS with good photos and a floorplan sketch. It's a waste of time. Appraisal waivers are where we should focus our energy.
 
What makes no sense to me is that they have already determined the LTV to be below 90% before they order the appraisal. So I don't understand what the purpose of the appraisal is. Their whole collateral risk management process revolves around the assumption that their AVM is correct. Kind of stupid imo.
 
The only chance we have to level the playing field is if the GSEs adopt the VA appraisal system.
I would not create a business plan based on this idea. The momentum is heading the other direction and its unlikely to change.


I don't need to inspect a home that's listed on the MLS with good photos and a floorplan sketch. It's a waste of time.
'Back when' I was doing mortgage appraising, after getting the order and looking up the MLS and/or Assessor info, it was a rare occasion that I didn't have a very good idea what the property was worth before I inspected it. But that might have been because I had appraised several thousand homes in the general market.

I'm sure some appraisers can provide a reasonable desktop valuation but what about the guys that haven't inspected many properties? That's where it will get interesting.

Multiple adjustable rate mortgages to strippers aren’t a thing this time around. If the real estate market pops again, I don’t think it will revolve around collateral.

Last time it was the real estate market crash that brought down the entire economy. Next time it will be the other way around, especially if inflation continues and interest rates keep going up. I can see real estate values dropping 20-30% in some of the high price areas. It's happened before, more than once, it will happen again.

So I don't understand what the purpose of the appraisal is. Their whole collateral risk management process revolves around the assumption that their AVM is correct. Kind of stupid imo.
Because they have a box to check. Someday they'll remove the box and the residential appraisal industry will vanish like a faart in a windstorm.
 
.....double post...
 
Multiple adjustable rate mortgages to strippers aren’t a thing this time around. If the real estate market pops again, I don’t think it will revolve around collateral.
Stripipers aren't, but should a run up in rates result in a decline in house prices and high ratio loans start going south again, the securities secured by them - with fixed rates - will suffer significant declines in value and will sent the fault-finding securities forensic analysts hunting for a scape goat.
 
It is not if interest rates will rise, but yes, FEDs will go after GSE's , AMC's and lenders and appraisers on the next drop. The FED has no choice but to raise interest rates. They are reportedly stopping buying $120 billion bonds a month. That will have huge impact on long term mortgage rates.
 
The short term interest rate increases will have a huge impact on flippers and short term borrowers. Home equity lines of credit, car loans, credit card rates.

Depositors in banks will welcome higher interest rates.
 
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