• Welcome to AppraisersForum.com, the premier online  community for the discussion of real estate appraisal. Register a free account to be able to post and unlock additional forums and features.

Shopping In Ghost Town

Status
Not open for further replies.

The same crisis blights the rest of Manhattan. The people invested in storefront retailing — real-estate developers, landlords and retail companies themselves — tell us not to worry. It’s a “transitional” situation that will right itself over time. Authoritative-sounding surveys by real-estate and retail companies claim that Manhattan’s overall vacancy is only just 10 percent.

But they are all wrong. Bricks-and-mortar retail is shrinking so swiftly and on such a wide scale, it’s going to require big changes in how we plan our new buildings and our cities — although nobody wants to admit it.

Retail storefronts, especially stripmalls, have many vacancies all over.
 
I'm seeing a lot of redevelopment occurring on commercially zoned sites in jurisdictions that allow multi-family development in the commercial zoning criteria. Just yesterday I saw a 1989yb retail center in typical condition that was sold for land value, to be redeveloped as multi-family. Along with other retail use properties that would have previously been left in their existing use.

If you had a suburban downtown business district that had a lot of retail vacancy the fastest way to redevelop would be to amend the commercial zoning categories to include varying multi-family densities and then change the general plan to allow that kind of redevelopment at the outskirts of that commercial corridor and work your way in as the development trends occurred that way. You'll get townhome and apartment projects popping up right on the main drag where all the existing public transit services, and within walk/bike distance to services in the business district core. The viable businesses at the outskirts will get moved in closer to the center and you'll end up with a more compact and efficient downtown retail district without having to engage in a lot of condemnation and redevelopment district machinations.

BTW, these types of examples demonstrate how remaining economic life is an economic reference more than a purely physical reference. If the REL is zero then the contribution of the improvements to the whole is zero regardless of the physical condition.
 
Funny you post this Greg
My brother just called me (lives in suburban Cincy, OH) walking through a smaller mall (his words, not mine) going to meet his wife and one of their kids. He said a bunch of stores in the mall were closed. I said "well I hear a lot of brick and mortar have closed because of online shopping"
He said "Of Course! Who wants to walk through all this if you can just click on it and have it sent to your house"
(he's not an appraiser FWIW)
 
I'm curious-for those of you who are commercial appraisers in larger metro areas (or perhaps even smaller), are you seeing any increase in warehouse activity/occupancy rates? I would think as retail continues to shrink at the cost of online shopping, that more localized warehousing would be growing, especially with amazon, drone shipments, same/next delivery promises, etc.

Anyone have any insight?
 
People drove to malls and brick/mortar stores because they had to, not because they necessarily wanted to; there was virtually no option.

Today you can see exactly how much the average person WANTED to go to the mall.

Maybe they should start using eminent domain to help the blight.:)
 
Applying retail trends from Manhattan to the rest of the country is sketchy. I drove through a SW suburb of Portland two weeks ago and notice a closed K-mart and a coffee stand going up where there had been a gas station, a 100% location. The only businesses that seem to be surviving are car dealerships and restaurants. I was talking to a car salesmen this weekend and he said that Buffett bought a large midwest dearlship and is planning to 'revolutionize' the car buying experience. We'll see. When the internet finds a way to send hot coffee, watch out.

[Edit: Speak of the devil. WSJ 4/8/18:
"These developments have helped fuel consolidation of the 16,800 U.S. dealerships into the hands of fewer owners. The top 50 dealer groups are poised to book more than $175 billion in revenue this year, compared to $144 billion when Mr. Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway Inc. entered the sector four years ago, according to industry publication Automotive News.

Erin Kerrigan, founder of the Kerrigan advisory, said about 200 dealerships changed hands in 2017, near an all-time high with a similar level of transactions to take place this year. Sellers are scrambling to cash in while commercial real estate prices are high, or partner with a deep-pocketed investor, she said."

Land that dealers sit on is rising in value, electric cars need less maintenance.
 
Last edited:
Guess I should drive over to Woodland Hills and see if the new malls they built recently are belly up yet. :leeann:
Last I saw they were still clearing the land from the old Rocketdyne site in Canoga Park.
We ain't gonna make rockets no more! We be building high zoot condos and commercial stuff. :D

All Real Estate is local. Your market may differ (suck). :whistle:
 
Today you can see exactly how much the average person WANTED to go to the mall.
Well that at least applies to guys...one of my ex's, shopping was an adventure and an expensive adventure at that.
 
Status
Not open for further replies.
Find a Real Estate Appraiser - Enter Zip Code

Copyright © 2000-, AppraisersForum.com, All Rights Reserved
AppraisersForum.com is proudly hosted by the folks at
AppraiserSites.com
Back
Top