Stable

[Joe Flacco]

What is a stable price trend? What is the criteria for it and how is it identified?

 

[Terrel L. Shields]

Deviation from the norm should define increasing or decreasing. In NW Arkansas, growth has been relatively steady with a small glitch in the Great Recession and a big one in Covid. So, I would define increasing as being 4% annual or above with 3-4% being pretty much a normal trend which varies in the short haul. So, other than seasonal variation, is that important? Seasonality seems less important than other factors, but we've been over the trend line since Covid. But the trend line has resumed at roughly the same rate as during pre-covid . Covid was a deeply inflationary trend and $130/SF to $200/SF in 5 years

 

[Joe Flacco]

Deviation from the norm should define increasing or decreasing. In NW Arkansas, growth has been relatively steady with a small glitch in the Great Recession and a big one in Covid. So, I would define increasing as being 4% annual or above with 3-4% being pretty much a normal trend which varies in the short haul. So, other than seasonal variation, is that important? Seasonality seems less important than other factors, but we've been over the trend line since Covid. But the trend line has resumed at roughly the same rate as during pre-covid . Covid was a deeply inflationary trend and $130/SF to $200/SF in 5 years

View attachment 96370

So if 4% annual increase = stable and 8% annual increase = increasing, then 0% annual change = declining?

 

[shrubberyvaluation]

What is a stable price trend? What is the criteria for it and how is it identified?

Should be something over inflation IMO. Probably will keep it unidentified so you can be attacked when people disagree with your criteria.

 

[shrubberyvaluation]

So if 4% annual increase = stable and 8% annual increase = increasing, then 0% annual change = declining?

In real terms it would be. Hyothetically if inflation rose 100% total over 10 years and property prices stayed the same, would you think your property value went down?

 

[Joe Flacco]

I know one of the things I look for in a stable market is the same house selling for relatively the same as a year or two ago. Some houses will sell for a little more and some houses will sell for a little less than a year or two ago.

 

[shrubberyvaluation]

I know one of the things I look for in a stable market is the same house selling for relatively the same as a year or two ago. Some houses will sell for a little more and some houses will sell for a little less than a year or two ago.

Its a difference between price and value in my opinion. Prices rising just means in terms of USD regardless of how the USD is valued. If values are rising it should be offset by the increase or decrease of the USD value. if 4% increase in property prices, and 4% inflation, then property values are stable and prices are increasing.

Prices can be increasing with a stable market.

 

[Joe Flacco]

Personally, I disagree that whether or not values are increasing, declining, or stable as anything to do with inflation or the dollar.

 

[TerryRohrer]

Should be something over inflation IMO. Probably will keep it unidentified so you can be attacked when people disagree with your criteria.

Comparison to arbitrary, bureaucratic/political benchmark can not be part of the solution. Our task is to describe changes in the price of one asset type.

 

[TerryRohrer]

Its a difference between price and value in my opinion. Prices rising just means in terms of USD regardless of how the USD is valued. If values are rising it should be offset by the increase or decrease of the USD value. if 4% increase in property prices, and 4% inflation, then property values are stable and prices are increasing.

Prices can be increasing with a stable market.

This line of thought just ensures no gains in insight into the question at hand. It is only slightly more germaine than pondering how the exchange rate between dollars and rubles affect rents in China and how that might change home prices in Wyoming.