What will 2025 bring to the stock market?

[Fernando]

Again, let's see how Trump either ruin or promote growth with his set policies once he gets power.
Then we have better idea of how our economy will do.

 

[Airstream]

My son is a Financial Advisor for major Bank (I would say but I will keep that secret). Their analysts believe equities will do well this year. And I heard some chatter on the business channels today the same sentiment. It won’t be a 20% gain, but it will be average to just above average 8 to 10%. The fact Trudeau just resigned tells me Canada is going to be cooperative with trade and illegal immigration. I have relatives that live in Alberta and homelessness there has doubled under this communist. Canadians have lost 40% of their purchasing power under Trudeau. Inflation and housing cost are out of control. They will bend on trade issues or go into economic depression. I even heard from a Canadian there is a movement among some conservatives in Canada to do a kind of EU thing with the U.S. That would be good for all of us.

 

[Airstream]

S&P went over 20% each year in 2023 & 2024 thus beating inflation. Thanks FED and Biden.
Hope 2025 be over 20% again then I will Thank FED and Trump.

Geez Fernando. You need to get a calculator and look at the history. The market was DOWN 20% before it was up 20%. Therefore in the past 2 years it is only up an average of 10%. My portfolio which has followed the market is only up about 10% to 15% from what it was before Biden took over. He was horrible for the market. My son, a Financial Advisor, hated Biden. Biden was an idiot. Also what saved the market was productivity has gone up due to AI. Biden’s a** got saved again by capitalism. Something he knows little about.

 

[Airstream]

The 3 month and 10 year uninverted. I sticking to we have 12 months to either a recession or stock market correction of 30-40%

Not a chance. The 3 month treasury is at around 4.3%. The 10 year is at about 4.6% The fact they un-inverted says just the opposite. It’s when the invert that you have problem.

An inverted yield curve is generally considered a strong signal that a recession is likely to occur in the near future, as it indicates that investors expect economic growth to slow down and interest rates to fall in the future;historically, an inverted yield curve has preceded most recessions, although it's not a perfect predictor and does not guarantee a recession will happen immediately.

10 Themes - #2: Inverted yield curves finally end. What now?

Who stands to benefit from the yield-curve steepening in Treasuries and Bunds?

www.dws.com

 

[Joe Flacco]

If looking at the yield curve as a recession indicator, the recessions occured during a steepening positive yield curve after inversion. The inversion came before recessions but the recession occurs when the yield curve is no longer inverted and steepening.

I haven't really looked into it but I think one thing different about the recent inversion is that the inversion was caused by the fed moving the fed funds rate above the long end of the curve. In the past, I am pretty sure the market dropped the long end of the curve below the fed funds rate to cause the inversion.

So this recent inversion was created by the fed in order to slow the economy while past inversions were caused by the market anticipating a recession.

 

[Terrel L. Shields]

Thanks FED and Biden.

That is perfectly meaningless to 90% of Americans who can barely rub two nickels together. A correction would be possible. But a meltdown in the housing market isn't likely. Too little activity in housing, Too high prices. Deflation would hurt but housing prices are way too high. Same with pickups as dealers are complaining the factories are saddling them with debt by sending hopelessly overpriced pickups to sell. I never thought I would see the day when a pickup would be priced at $140,000...but they are out there.