What will 2025 bring to the stock market?

[Joe Flacco]

The public participation phase starts once it is back near all time highs. That is when the media narrative changes and sentiment shifts positive.

If anything you probably want to make decisions opposite of public sentiment. Accumulate when sentiment is negative and distribute when sentiment is positive.

 

[Gobears81]

Sentiment can be positive or negative but someone is buying when others are selling and someone is selling when others are buying.

I remember last August making 5% on a day when the VIX spiked over 60 because Warren Buffet sold part of his Apple position. When I see bears get chastised or everyone climbing into sure things like Mag 7 stocks, time to trim. Different systems work well for different people.

I did have a prediction that a piece of bad news would coincidentally come out right when the S & P hit its 200 EMA, and so far, that hasn't happened. Maybe Trump was trying to push prices back above that level by telling people to buy stocks again, but between that and a US/UK deal not really boosting much, it feels like the up move is getting a bit tired.

I agree that 4800 will be tested again, but there is some good breadth underlying, and that is why I say that in this case, the government holds the reins on what happens after the market recharges a bit.

 

[Joe Flacco]

I remember last August making 5% on a day when the VIX spiked over 60 because Warren Buffet sold part of his Apple position. When I see bears get chastised or everyone climbing into sure things like Mag 7 stocks, time to trim. Different systems work well for different people.

I did have a prediction that a piece of bad news would coincidentally come out right when the S & P hit its 200 EMA, and so far, that hasn't happened. Maybe Trump was trying to push prices back above that level by telling people to buy stocks again, but between that and a US/UK deal not really boosting much, it feels like the up move is getting a bit tired.

I agree that 4800 will be tested again, but there is some good breadth underlying, and that is why I say that in this case, the government holds the reins on what happens after the market recharges a bit.

The timing of news and media narrative coinciding with technicals is very puzzling to me. I am convinced that the media is a big machine designed to make people make bad decisions and transfer their wealth.

 

[Gobears81]

The timing of news and media narrative coinciding with technicals is very puzzling to me. I am convinced that the media is a big machine designed to make people make bad decisions and transfer their wealth.

There does seem to be a relationship between watching CNBC and doing poorly in the market

You are on to something about price action usually trumping the news cycle. There was some bad news about China/ US a week or so ago, but the market was still wanting to move up, so it was swept under the rug.

 

[DTB]

SPX close > 5835 and I'm getting long TQQQ

 

[Fernando]

MSN

Trump shrugs at falling dollar​

Trump has traditionally favored a weakened dollar based on comments made during his first administration and on the campaign trail. He reemphasized the policy position in early April.
“This is a GREAT time to move your COMPANY into the United States of America, like Apple, and so many others, in record numbers, are doing,” Trump said on Truth Social days after his “Liberation Day” of increased tariffs on dozens of countries.

Yet Trump’s shrug at the falling dollar brings little comfort to Americans staring at the downward spiral of their 401(k) retirement plans. Still, Trump appears dead set on the plan, come hell or high water.

In Trump’s view, a weaker dollar makes American exports more competitive. It increases foreign investment and potentially domestic manufacturing, a main goal of Trump’s tariff agenda in his second term.

That approach defies the thinking of most mainstream economists. In this almost universal view, a strong dollar means cheaper import costs, lower prices for Americans abroad, and increased demand for the U.S. dollar as the world’s reserve currency.

Multiple economists have suggested that Trump’s thinking is flawed and will hurt the American economy.

“His trade policies are making the U.S. a less attractive place to invest,” said Dr. Donald Boudreaux, an economics professor at George Mason University.

Markets seem to agree.