Zaio: Everybody buckle your seat belts

[Ken Verrett]

12 posts later...

From "newbie" to "aspiring forumite" in one thread.

Guess that "seen and not heard" thingy's not working out so well.

No, it's not is it Scott? But you did read my original post and remembered what I said. I'm pleased and impressed.

In my defense I hope you see that I'm only responding to questions or 'challenges' directed to me...I'm not trying to do anything else, nor will I.

Once this dies down, and I'm quite sure it will soon, I'll recede into the woodwork....

 

[Mike Kennedy]

I guess their "Intended Use" would be "Speculation of future marketability of the appraisal product" Barry Dayton

Mr. Dayton, may i suggest a minor revision ?? well, if you insist,

"speculation of future marketability of a non-USPAP compliant, multiple "walk-by, bike-by, drive-by" report on a dwelling which has a wonderful Exterior, is assumed to be completed and habitable in the interior, is assumed to have a DRY basement (if applicable), is assumed NOT to have any interior roof leaks or fire damage, that is supported by photos (we think ) of the exterior (IF the trainee photographer/non-appraiser trainee actually took a shot of the correct dwelling ), with a specific intended use to compile a data base of possibly reliable photos, incomplete and/or erroneous property data for a non-specific Intended User at some time this century".

Thanks.

 

[Mike Kennedy]

Aha Mr. Kennedy! I now see where you are coming from. The word 'is'. I think that is a good point. If I were writing that sentence for my interpretation, I certainly would have used the word 'are', just as you infer. I'll do my homework on the basis of that point.

I'm not sure I'd agree with the Certification 25 violation, but heck, let's leave that open for now.

I'll be back when I have facts to support either your position or mine.

Mr. Verrett, consultation with Bill & Hilary Clinton to ascertain a reliable definition of "IS" .......STILL doesn't count.

 

[Taylor Driscoll]

Ken,

Are you having fun yet? Do you remember the ad ZAIO did to trainees (they were marketing appraiser trainees) to take photographs and complete for a job with a ZONE Appraiser. Is this part of your contract? Will there be such positions? Since there is a great influx of students, in my city, there were close to 100 trainees. Most still looking for a supervisor. So I was wondering how all this panes out for trainees looking for a supervisor.

Ken I notice you are a Certified General Appraiser. Where do you see ZAIO going in the commercial realm. Will they want to photo business districts also?

OK Ken, I am a conspiracy theorist, so please do not take this personally!!!

And.... since you have been the only one in months to stand up and say "I am a zone owner" and the 1000s (Zaio claims are owners)... are you sent here from Tom to get a reaction? or are you really a zone owner.. Seems you would have a lot more detailed detailed detailed answers (Not trying to question your intelligence) PLEASE do not take it that way, to these questions, as I am sure ZAIO has spent 1000s in researching (or have they?) and ensuring you know the A to Z of their process and setups. Or you basically cannot share it (that answer is too easy a way out).

I have posted many times asking where are the other ZONE APPRAISERS. I have written to other forums asking where are they and WHY are they NOT PROMOTING THIS $10,000 (yes I rounded - I like lots of 0s) investment. Telling everyone how great this is and how rich they will be as they change the dynamics of appraising.

So as I asked several pages back.... WHAT REALLY GOT YOU HOOKED ON ZAIO (sounds like a drug prevention question!) I read your story on Appraisal Scoop. I specifically remember this quote!

Furthermore, the numbers at the zone level don't appear to be a very attractive investment from my view. Investment of $9,000 (rounded) for the purchase of a zone. They estimate 240 appraisals from that zone a year. Fees for the product somewhere between $100 and $200 each. Zaio takes a haircut of 56 percent, appraiser gets 44 percent. That's an annual gross between $10,560 and $21,120. Even at the higher number, that's not particularly appealing to me.

Would you say you can beat these numbers?

While I don't think Zaio is a threat to me, I do think they have developed a very impressive business model from their perspective. If they pull it off, that data base they will have is currently unique, and would be a terrific base to spin off products of many types that would be in demand in the market.

A visit to their web sites suggests that it exactly what they plan to do. But I'm afraid all of that upside is retained by Zaio, not the worker bees who will build the data base for them......

Tom's response

Your article failed to mention 4 key items:

The amount paid for the software is a one-time purchase while the revenue benefits to the appraiser are perpetual benefits that would likely increase each year and extend over a lengthy hold period that could in theory be forever, and would likely exceed 10 years to the typical purchaser;
Your article failed to mention or take into account the time value of money;
The article failed to mention the reversionary value of the license (which goes up over time) can be quite high
Your article stated it was a bad investment, yet no rate of return was calculated. Using any hypothetical holding period from as low as 3 years to a high of 15 years, and given the constantly increasing price of a zone (due to supply & demand, the base price of a zone has been increasing quite rapidly), using any hypothetical reversionary value of $10,000 to $100,000, the “Math” which was not calculated in your article would result in a very attractive rate of return for any appraiser.

So I assume you attended his seminar and he pulled you into the dark room! I do give you credit, you mentioned in might be a viable addition for smaller work.. potential in your article.

But over the month of January, you jumped in quickly over your very real article that I felt REALLY hit the nail. NEEDED A LOT MORE PROOF. I guess that is why all these real estate seminars make millions over people coming to seminars. How many timeshares have you purchased? (just kidding).

So hopefully you can see why I keep asking WHAT MADE YOU DO IT!

 

[Rudy Canoza]

Here's the death-knell to Zaio...

Frantic loan-jockey dialing phone:

LO: Hello! Zaio?!? Hey buddy, this is Dewey Screwem over here at And How Loans. That appraisal at 123 Elm Street came in a little short. I need about a 5K bump to make it a sweet deal...Hello? Hello? Zaio? Anybody?

/In 1989 I was told that I would be automated out of this job in 5 years...

 

[JSmith43]

In 1989 I was told that I would be automated out of this job in 5 years...

Greenspan's "irrational exuberance" comment was a bit early as well.

The velocity of change in the economy is effecting the perception of people within so many industries. There is lots of wailing and it takes many forms. Experiments, trial and error. By and large, that which proves to be efficient and useful survives.

For people that have positioned themselves for more flexibility, it means more opportunity. For the economy, it means more productivity.

Ah, the good old days, where the chosen ones could enjoy a cushy union job and do the same thing, using the same tools, at the same pace for 30 years. Flashy upstarts working too hard or too smart were rate busters and would get thumped or bumped.

 

[Rudy Canoza]

Ah, the good old days, where the chosen ones could enjoy a cushy union job and do the same thing, using the same tools, at the same pace for 30 years. Flashy upstarts working too hard or too smart were rate busters and would get thumped or bumped.

Ahhhhh...the unions.

Socialism at its finest. Organizations that cater to the lowest common denominator and punish over-achievers.

/No thank you...

 

[Workbox]

Nice research Taylor, It is becoming very evident about these "business models" and what they are really about. They can spin it all they want and justify it, but we see them for what they are and have done to the industry and are wanting to do. they can have their AAVM low fees. I think Hatch said it best, "if Zaio can sell those products, so can anyone else". I can see where I can take pictures of every house and just keep it in a data base and when I need them, WALA! There they are. That's what it really is, an AAVM with an added picture to it. But they see this industry as a commodity, not a profession. That is not what we want and expect for those that are relatively new and getting into the profession, that old school mindset is out.

But man that is a daunting task to do all those 1000's of homes, come on, lets be real, there is a high chance that these zone appraiser will limit going out to double check the comps and subject, chances are they will be doing or somebody else doing desktops and signing off with out leaving the office, and that is why they are having Photographer/Trainees do all the initial leg work with a carrot of a potential trainee job. (I can see all the summer ADs rolling out). Either they will have to hire additional help to keep up with constant double checking of comps and have them out in the field, the overhead would be something to question for the fees that Z promotes. I will stick with my handful of clients that keep me quite busy with full fees.

 

[Taylor Driscoll]

Al

Thanks.. It is so true.

Of course, our County GIS system has a photo of every house from the street as does the MLS. So I too could compete with a very similar model and not pay $ to anyone.... So I just made $9000 that I can invest into something long term and my maintenance costs are ???? Heck, I can send out my nephew to take photos...

OK!! I have a new plan!

 

[Mr Rex]

Don't worry Al, If ZAIO ever gets a ZAIO type form approved that meets USPAP and lender requirements, you can believe your old buddies at Wintotal, the folks at ACI, Day One, WCA, etc etc will have the form available in a jiffy and I am sure a semi software geek can produce a ZAIO knock off that will be available for $149 for the deluxe package. How you handle taking all those pics will be up to you, but since the "appraiser" visits all the houses and views, updates 24/7 etc (or so the claim goes), what do you need a pseudo trainee photo taker for?