Bye-bye Skippy. Let gas prices continue to rise!

[Farm Gal]

Uh, folks this is edging over into politics instead of discussion on appraisal and how it is affected by external events...

I think the challenge in years to come will be figuring out how economic changes effect values in swinging availability situations (food shelter and funds to get em are key here)

That said, the reason no refineries are being constructed in the US is in large part due to the cost of doing biz here in the states... and the biggest costs are NOT the infrastructure installation or the environmental caveats, it is the fact that you can pay a very grateful individual in some third world country 3 bucks a DAY to learn how to operate the refinery. and they won't grouse about exposure to toxins when they pick up their check... Labor costs area a BIG part of why our refineries left the building...

Most refineries don't make money - costs the same to ship crude or refined product over the deep blue... He who has the crude has the ducats.

The issue behind refinery infrastructure is more ongoing costs than original install and operating it RIGHT.

either way I predicted and a lot of folks called me pure nuts - the free ride on fuel in this country was gonna come to an end sooon.. its HEEERE.

Now why don't we instead talk about the idiocy of having folks work so many miles from where they live and how we could and should recreate a village infrastructure for living? Before the big cities implode? and the countryside is overrun by starving howling mobs screaming for gas??

 

[PropertyEconomics]

Uh, folks this is edging over into politics instead of discussion on appraisal and how it is affected by external events...

I think the challenge in years to come will be figuring out how economic changes effect values in swinging availability situations (food shelter and funds to get em are key here)

That said, the reason no refineries are being constructed in the US is in large part due to the cost of doing biz here in the states... and the biggest costs are NOT the infrastructure installation or the environmental caveats, it is the fact that you can pay a very grateful individual in some third world country 3 bucks a DAY to learn how to operate the refinery. and they won't grouse about exposure to toxins when they pick up their check... Labor costs area a BIG part of why our refineries left the building...

Most refineries don't make money - costs the same to ship crude or refined product over the deep blue... He who has the crude has the ducats.

The issue behind refinery infrastructure is more ongoing costs than original install and operating it RIGHT.

either way I predicted and a lot of folks called me pure nuts - the free ride on fuel in this country was gonna come to an end sooon.. its HEEERE.

Now why don't we instead talk about the idiocy of having folks work so many miles from where they live and how we could and should recreate a village infrastructure for living? Before the big cities implode? and the countryside is overrun by starving howling mobs screaming for gas??

I thought you were steering the conversation away from politics?
Sorry Lee Ann . I simply think your analysis couldnt be more wrong. Refineries have not been constructed for primarily political reasons not those that you describe. We export nearly ALL of our oil which results in us IMPORTING all of our oil. Now if that makes sense to you well perhaps you can explain it to me.
The simple fact of the matter is that our leaders have not wanted to make us independent with regard to energy. Why? I dont know. But its not for the costs of labor and the excuse that has been used is the environment which frankly shouldnt hold water with us either.

Cities will continue to grow because that is where the jobs are and that is where its least expensive to get to work. Want change, lobby for drilling now in the US.

 

[Mztk1]

that's like saying you never turn the engine off your car even when you have to refuel or change oil...refineries that run 85% of the time are nearer normal. Failure to maintain equipment was the problem at BPs refinery in Texas City that blew up. The largest refiner is Valero which is not a integrated multinational company. It refines. It has gas stations. It does not explore.

Courts have also shut them down. Either in bankruptcy or for pollution. The Coffeyville refinery shut down due to a flood. Cushing, Ok, many other locations had old small refiners who could not compete against the larger refiners. They simply were not making money. The idea that oil companies shut down refineries to create shortage is preposterous. If there was money to be made, someone would build it.

The Saudis, thru their Basic Industries ministry is gearing to sell 'value added' oil to the world market and a lot of refined product is brought into this country.

To my understanding 100% capacity still allows time for maintenance, etc.

The idea that they would not pump out enough for the sake of profits is not preposterous at all, it is how business is done and is generally known as "The Law of Diminishing Return". There is a point where when you pump out more you don't make more, or even start making less. It is bad business in a for profit based entity to produce more just because it can help the society it is in. If it is in their economic interest to produce less and raise price to gain more wealth, then that is what they are going to do. And obviously this business model is working quite well for the oil companies with their record profits. Read up on Enron and the CA electricity crisis. Similar situation, cutting back on output to create an artificial shortage and increase pricing.

Once upon a time every corporation was restricted in America, mostly due to our experience with English corporations over the colonies (remember the Boston Tea Party - it was an attack really against the East India Tea Company). Once corporations were designated as persons and protected by the 14th amendment in the late 1800s, things began gradually to change. This artical has a list of the things when our nation was first founded that were in place against corporate power that has since been lifted.

Money is king in the corporate world. You are fooling yourself if you believe an oil company will sacrafice profit to help your wallet. They will only give an air of altruistic behavior when it is projected that profit can be gained by doing so or when they are trying to prevent profit from being lost.

http://www.reclaimdemocracy.org/corporate_accountability/history_corporations_us.html

 

[Mztk1]

Want change, lobby for drilling now in the US.

Why? You said yourself most of the oil pumped in the US is exported anyway.

 

[Terrel L. Shields]

We export nearly ALL of our oil which results in us IMPORTING all of our oil.

say what???? Outside Alaskan oil which goes to Japan in exchange for oil from Mexico (to save oodles on transporting Alaska crude to US refiners and Mexican crude to Japan to save oodles) the oil in the U. S. is refined here. Lots gets refined in the Virgin Islands, and we buy lots of refined product.

To my understanding 100% capacity still allows time for maintenance

no, its based upon capacity.
the key question then is if the all powerful Oil Companies can dictate prices by yo-yoing supply, then what happened during the 1990's when oil dropped to $16/bbl or so? Why wait 10-15 years to manipulate the market? Oil production in the US peaked in 1973. They lose their magic wand? not. The oil companies lost control of oil pricing decades ago. When OPEC thought they had it - circa 1973 - 1986, they found out that they couldn't control it either.

As for the impact upon Skippy, I don't think gas prices will help nor hurt them any more than us. Overall, it is not good news for the economy and that translates into less business, more pressure to do the job cheaper even in the face of rising costs. We all hurt by this.

 

[toddmallard]

It's only a matter of time before we creep above $5 a gallon... and if the economist are correct, $7 might be possible by the end of summer. Although it hurts all of us, the AMC's are going to have bend. The skippy's can't afford to do the work for their current fees when the gas prices don't cover the bottom dollar when an appraisal is completed. Come on oil prices... keep rising!

Excuse all of you, Here is the original thread. Nothing to do with politics, refineries or any other crap. Its about the SKIPPIES.

I'll say it again, They can afford the gas, Their working...............

 

[Terrel L. Shields]

I don't think we can predict price but we can predict that the ones who undercut will get the work and no matter how crappy that work is, when the stuffn' hits the fan, they will be long gone or standing in front of a judge with deer-in-headlights look wondering what happened. I seriously doubt many of those folks believe they are doing anything "really" wrong. The customer is always right attitude.

But that doesn't help the honest survive. That work is long gone never to return.

 

[Deuce of Spades]

But that doesn't help the honest survive. That work is long gone never to return.

I'm not so sure about that. I have been getting more and more random calls from the AMCs looking to place an order. Fiserv called on Friday wanting a 2055int for $175.....I have not had a call from them in well over a year for a basic request, most calls I get are for high-end or complex fee quotes - I did not take the fee but it makes me think that if they are calling me, then they can't place it randomly with a Skippy to do it for $175. I am sure someone else picked it up for that fee but the calls do indicate something is changing.

 

[Josh Shapiro]

It's only a matter of time before we creep above $5 a gallon... and if the economist are correct, $7 might be possible by the end of summer. Although it hurts all of us, the AMC's are going to have bend. The skippy's can't afford to do the work for their current fees when the gas prices don't cover the bottom dollar when an appraisal is completed. Come on oil prices... keep rising!

If you think that it is only going to put the skippys out of business you have another thing coming.....what an ***!

 

[Mztk1]

the key question then is if the all powerful Oil Companies can dictate prices by yo-yoing supply, then what happened during the 1990's when oil dropped to $16/bbl or so? Why wait 10-15 years to manipulate the market? Oil production in the US peaked in 1973. They lose their magic wand? not. The oil companies lost control of oil pricing decades ago. When OPEC thought they had it - circa 1973 - 1986, they found out that they couldn't control it either.

A couple of things took place. Bill Clinton signed a republican bill that allowed for oil commodities to be traded in 2000, which made the market more responsive to speculation. Also, our country got an oil profits driven administration over the past 8 years. Corporations are powerful. They write their own regulations (we are seeing this now in our business) to favor them, they have powerful lobbiest groups influencing Washington, they own their own media outlets, etc.

One of the main factors in oil prices dropping through the 90s, beieve it or not, was the combination of Saddam Hussein and Hugo Chavez. The first was disgruntled with OPEC on a regular basis because despite sitting on some of the largest oil reserves he was grossly restricted in how much he could produce, the latter considers himself a humanitarian of the working class and was always willing to pump more oil when he felt it was necessary for the population. Whenever there would be a shortage and prices started to increase both of these men threatened to pump more oil onto the market. They also threatened to switch from the dollar to the euro in later years. Their threats were typically enough to cause the Saudis to pump more oil out and increase supply, thereby keeping prices low.

With Iraq out of control and no threats coming from that quarter to increase supply, the Saudis see no reason to increase supply. Chavez simply is not a large enough threat and is not longer much of a player.

There is a great book on the subject. It is as dense as can be, and it is apolitical. The guy who wrote it is a top dog in goverment trading of oil and knows the ins and outs. If I ever find the book in my mess of a house I'll let you know the author's name and the title. I am very bad with names and titles unfortunately.

The idea of Skippy going out of business over gas prices is silly. If AMC apprairers stopped working en masse because $175 wasn't enough to cover their expenses, the AMC would look to raise the fee per appraisal to $180 or $185. Still too low for the bulk of us, but if you are doing 10 reports a week for the company, a $5 fee increase per report will cover the extra cost of gas in most locations.