Falling Out - More Appraisers Quit

[J Grant]

3 comps on a grid and matched pairs was kind of dumb when i started appraising in 1981. We live in a data rich world.

Lenders are asking you to manually type a bunch of comps on a grid.

We don't "manually type in a bunch of comps on a grid. " That is far from the analysis needed to find those comps...hours of work if done right. If done like the Mcdonalds assembly line appraisers for your AMC mill clients, yes..they are typing in quickly grabbed comps. (perhaps you typed in a bunch of random comps , aka your personal recollection of appraising)

What if you could in an automated way have 300 sales to analyze. You need to look back at least 24 months to be able to trend sales.

What is the point of 300 sales to "analyze" that have nothing to do with the subject? No point to it except...Eureka! Your company will compile the database of 300 sales, and charge per sale download. Of course.

Note to JT, market conditions change radically in 2 years. Sales trends are dependent on listing activity and forecasting. Of what use is a 2 year old sales trend that is already over? Eureka! Your company will be compiling 2 year old sales trends data and charging per download. Yes, a great idea.

No Fannie Mae guidelines needed. It would all be completely transparent.

Your favorite word is tranparent. That isn't even an appraisal guideline, last I recall. And who is the guadian of transparent...your "transparent " website Clearbox is mis represented on the internet as being comprised of ALL the licensed and certified appraisers in the USA. This statement is misleading, but to get around it being an outright lie, you did pinge the ASC database and stuck all our NAMES in there, which is different than our bing WILLING MEMBERS of your site, but hey, it's a data rich world and our names are just pieces of data plugged in.

"We live in a data rich world. " That is one of those sound bytes you are so good at. You should be writing speeches for politicians, your natural flair for spin would shine there.

We have always lived in a data rich world, it's just that more of it is easily available now on the internet. So what. Data is meaningless (or misleading) without expert knowledge applied to anaylize it , (just do a few Zillow searches and see). And an appraisal report is not just comprised of gathering data, it is comprised in large part of the judgement of the appraiser applied to that data, as well as other factors.

 

[J Grant]

November 7, 2011 - The nation's home appraisal process is behind the times and needs a major, long-term overhaul, according to a white paper prepared by appraiser Joan Trice and members of the Collateral Risk Network

Joan, in the above article, you represent yourself as an appraiser, when you no longer are licensed and have not been for years. Is that your idea of transparent?

 

[Meandering]

Does that mean that Joan's background check would show she is a liar?

Frankly I am tired of reading multiple places that assume Joan is an appraiser and that she claims its OUR industry.

I used to be a solider, but it would be wrong for me to try and buddy up with the young people who are now fighting wars, and claim that we are the same and I am one of them and I can tell them how to do it better because I've been there done that and have studied what they are doing and how they can do it better, all for the low cost of $X and a couple of signatures.

But it's okay for Joan to sell this BS to give herself credibility, just not for the rest of the world.

The insider buddy system may be rearranged at the next election. Hopefully it will curtail some of this garbage.

 

[J Grant]

I used to be a solider, but it would be wrong for me to try and buddy up with the young people who are now fighting wars, and claim that we are the same and I am one of them and I can tell them how to do it better because I've been there done that and have studied what they are doing and how they can do it better, all for the low cost of $X and a couple of signatures

It would be even more ironic, is if you were writing papers and meeting with legislators, representing that you are still an active member of the armed forces, using that good will to procure business of running military background checks in the interest of "transparency".

 

[The Warrior Monk]

That's like saying 50 goal scorers in the NHL are making big money (shocking) and at the same time the pay for the majority of players has gone down.

I'd compare it to having 50 teams when the market will only support 25.

Unsustainable to have an industry in that condition. The condition of the greatest number in the industry must be improving or the industry is not well.

What's happened since 1997 or so is not the norm. That market is now settling back to its historical norm. It will likely overshoot it, then come back up to a steady state.

In addition, when resi supply was down what happened? Fees didn't increase, supply was just flooded.

I was in the business in the early 1990s when there was a shortage of appraisers. What happened? Lenders were begging us to get reports turned around in a reasonable time (10 days or so), and paying us more to do so. I'm not talking about some small local banks either; I'm talking about the big boys.

 

[Mr Rex]

I used to be a solider, but it would be wrong for me to try and buddy up with the young people who are now fighting wars, and claim that we are the same and I am one of them and I can tell them how to do it better because I've been there done that and have studied what they are doing and how they can do it better, all for the low cost of $X and a couple of signatures

It would be even more ironic, is if you were writing papers and meeting with legislators, representing that you are still an active member of the armed forces, using that good will to procure business of running military background checks in the interest of "transparency".

Mr Sandusky and Michael Jackson were kids once too.

 

[JSmith43]

I repeat - you should sit down and do the better job. You just want to hope that nobody like you gets ahold of it after you're done. 'Cause at that point I can guarantee you that no matter how you handled something someone just like you is going to find fault with it and say you should have handled it the other way.

If a bureaucrat gets a hold of something, might as well roll over and expose your neck. The appraiser may receive fair treatment, but not because there is a significant consequence to a bureaucrat or group of bureaucrats rendering unfair treatment. C & R ring a bell? I'm surprised that didn't prompt appraisers that were, until then, "true believers" to go camp in a park & relieve themselves on the steps of The Fed.

Even if treated fairly 100% of the time, there is essentially no cost for competitors or disgruntled clients (Chase?) with a scorched earth turn 'em all in policy (now embedded in Dodd-Frank & GSE guidelines). Their victims get due processed out of business, right or wrong.

Don't be passing this set up off as heaven on Earth. Why do you think Ron Paul pulls support from D's & R's in spite of an establishment/media boycott?

It may not be a metaphorical march into the oven, but it is something kinder and gentler, with image management in mind.

All many of us are calling for is a thoughtful analysis of where we are now, where we have been going & a thoughtful course correction, incrementally marching in the other direction.

 

[Adios]

Your favorite word is tranparent. That isn't even an appraisal guideline, last I recall. And who is the guadian of transparent...your "transparent " website Clearbox is mis represented on the internet as being comprised of ALL the licensed and certified appraisers in the USA. This statement is misleading, but to get around it being an outright lie, you did pinge the ASC database and stuck all our NAMES in there, which is different than our bing WILLING MEMBERS of your site, but hey, it's a data rich world and our names are just pieces of data plugged in.

"We live in a data rich world. " That is one of those sound bytes you are so good at. You should be writing speeches for politicians, your natural flair for spin would shine there.

We have always lived in a data rich world, it's just that more of it is easily available now on the internet. So what. Data is meaningless (or misleading) without expert knowledge applied to anaylize it , (just do a few Zillow searches and see). And an appraisal report is not just comprised of gathering data, it is comprised in large part of the judgement of the appraiser applied to that data, as well as other factors.

Clearbox does have every appraiser in the US in the database. We ping the ASC database on a daily basis. We then reach out to each State and collect disciplinary actions. Then appraisers are able to enter their credentialing layer. Background checks may be ordered by the appraiser.They can view them and then decide to post them. Which party is confusing?

 

[Terrel L. Shields]

We live in a data rich world

the issue is that 75% of that data is BS. The remaining 25% is concentrated in urban areas. Those of us who live "out there" are dealing with very little data, a huge area to cover in search of it, and few resources to access it. AMCs assume every home in America is in a subdivision that was developed in one year consisting of 300 carbon copy homes and so our job is easy. And every AVM assumes the same so it simply forces the valuation to conform to its internal bias.

If a bureaucrat gets a hold of something, might as well roll over and expose your neck. The appraiser may receive fair treatment, but not because there is a significant consequence to a bureaucrat...Even if treated fairly 100% of the time, there is essentially no cost for ...disgruntled clients (Chase?) ... turn 'em all in policy (now embedded in Dodd-Frank & GSE guidelines). Their victims get due processed out of business, right or wrong.

Amen Brother Rog

Process does not promise fairness. In fact, process, regardless outcome, is often its own punishment...and the banks/AMCs [our handlers, if you will] know that. And that wet behind the ears lawyer that is getting his experience in the Attorney General's office by being the state board's "legal council" quickly figures out that with the resources of the state he can "win" by attrition regardless of his lack of real skill.

 

[George Hatch]

Since the thread has veered back to the valuation problem I'll comment on that.


Don't shoot and burn the message just because you don't like the messenger.


The first thing I'd like to point out is that the 3-record comparison grid is an appraisal valuation model. It works to the extent that the appraiser qualifies the data used in the grid so as to ensure overall comparability as well as to develop the adjustment factors for the respective differences.

You could say that this valuation model is long on quality (qualification) and short on quantity (quantification). The entirety of the data that powers the analyses is not contained within the confines of the report itself. That dataset extends back to include all the other less directly comparable data the appraiser considered, however briefly, back when they were qualifying their data and before they refined it down to the 3 or 5 or 8 they used in the report.

Beyond that assignment-related data there is also the appraiser's objective and subjective judgment, which serves as the engine of this particular valuation model. That judgment is based in large part of the appraiser's own qualifications which is not limited to the training (theory) but also their experience (application). Over time those applications get repeated hundreds and thousands of times over; the data the appraiser has previously seen and the comparisons they've previously made accumulate. The appraiser becomes a walking talking valuation machine. Our judgment is the product of the sum total of our exposure to all the data and analyses that preceded it, and applied through the data that is directly at hand in this assignment.

The thing people need to remember is that although most of us develop our opinions while we write our reports the two processes are not mutually inclusive. We could develop our opinions before we write the report if we chose to do so. In fact, back in the day that's how most everyone worked. You figured out what you were going to do and did all the math part separate, and then you wrote the report. That's why they call it a report - it's the communication part of the process that preceded.

The only reason Fannie says stupid stuff like the form drives the process is because somebody forgot that. With the incorporation of the PC into the appraisal business we've become so accustomed to multi-tasking that many people have lost sight of the fact that data entry has little or nothing to do with the analyses, opinions and conclusions that comprise the guts of the appraisal. That's what distinguishes us from a calculator.