The Mega Economy

[Terrel L. Shields]

The biggest headwinds I see to a healthy recovery in this country is:

High fuel prices will plague the transportation industry and consumers. Electrical supply will remain strong and hopefully more renewables and nat gas plants will go on line. The price of nat gas needs to improve and oil prices need to drop somewhat. Nat gas is too cheap and it is getting many companies talking about compressing it and shipping it OVERSEAS. That's plain nuts but nothing prevents the U. S. from EXPORTING gas...whereas oil cannot be exported except is special cases.

Without some push from government nat gas cars will not be a significant dent in the driving public. Forget this stupid mass transit idea. It works in areas of concentrated population but the rest of the nation runs in autos and trucks.

China will continue to tie their currency to ours so long as it makes exporting cheap and thus benefits them at our expense.

The glut of housing has to diminish and it would help if the examiners get off the back of the small banks. They are being hammered while the big banks are getting unjustified support.

Regulations have to be revised to maximize incentives to hire, etc. One simple regulation revolves around the flood zone issue. The banks are now having to require ALL borrowers to have flood insurance even in areas where the flood maps are inconclusive or worthless. Two examples.

There is a car wash in a small town that is in a flood zone - concrete block and the equipment is basically unfloodable. There is nothing to hurt and the flood isn't going to be over a foot deep. Further, it is flooded only because of a coffer dam the city erected. When it flooded an adjacent store, the insurance was turned down because they claimed the flood was the result of the city and the city claimed they cannot be sued....catch 22.

The other situation was one where a building was not in the flood zone but a remapping resulted in a survey showing that ONE CORNER SIX INCHES UP on the foundation was in the flood zone. They had to buy flood insurance. It is a small branch creek, a backwater and there won't be enough current to even undermine that corner...go figure. The owner his out $2000 a year for insurance now.

That is bureacratic dumbness at its worst.

 

[Meandering]

T,

Are you seeing a contraction of the population back to the cities as we are? Of course our area was populated by people escaping the cities now they appear to be going back there vacating the rural areas.

News flash here, they are in the process at the moment to allow gas drilling in the Delaware River Basin here. Sad, so sad that we need the jobs more than we need to provide clean water to NY, NJ and others. If the price of gas is so low, why do they keep drilling and adding supply?

I would rather they not drill in or near the river, if something happens, it will ruin a very wild beautiful place. I trained my kids to swim the currents in the river, and would hate to think the grand kids can not learn the same way.

 

[Delta85]

Can't believe Obama blocked that pipeline deal. It would have created jobs and allowed us to be that much more energy independent.

 

[Restrain]

He did it at the bidding of the environs, that are a major part of his re-election campaign. Trying to shore up his base.

 

[Delta85]

He did it at the bidding of the environs, that are a major part of his re-election campaign. Trying to shore up his base.

So much for Hope and Change and doing what's right for the American people.

 

[SANDY]

No one needs flood insurance until it floods. Great example of how the tea party people operate. First thing that those uninsured people would do after a flood is apply for federal aide. We don't need no stinkin guvnmt until something happens then we need that stinkin guvnmt and it would be the stinkin guvnmt's fault because the maps were not right.

 

[Delta85]

No one needs flood insurance until it floods. Great example of how the tea party people operate. First thing that those uninsured people would do after a flood is apply for federal aide. We don't need no stinkin guvnmt until something happens then we need that stinkin guvnmt and it would be the stinkin guvnmt's fault because the maps were not right.

The Occupy protestors would simply seek to take over someone elses property if theirs was flooded out.

 

[Head Surfer]

Please leave the politics out of it and talk about the original topic.

 

[Terrel L. Shields]

Thank you....

back to the thread. The economy lags largely due to the lack of job creation and that issue is going to relate to having something for people to do. High fuel -especially gasoline prices - reduces the ability of transportation industries to expand. It affects the cost of agriculture, it affects the cost of anything produced here. Regulations slow the search for domestic energy that is affordable - no matter what renewables end up doing, they will not replace FUEL which drives our autos and trucks...and tractors and lawnmowers, weedeaters, and chain saws.

Housing by some measures, accounted for 40% of job growth in the first six years of this century. And the glut has accounted for much of the reduction of job growth since.

So what are the drivers that will get the economy moving again? I don't see them on the horizon. It appears we are on the road to a Japanese style "stagdeflation" where the economy stagnates, interest rates remain at zero nigh, and government simply remains powerless to make it better.

Tom Peters used to say that no one's motto was "We are no worse than our competitors"...and that seems to be the theme. The U. S. is not as bad off as Europe.