No. Not even close. Has nothing to do with it. When you analyze the motivation of buyer and seller, you consider whether both parties were well informed or advised, you analyze whether there was reasonable exposure to the open market or whether the price was influenced by special or creative financing, you typically find the reason why the price was over or under contract. You do the same with all your comps...well, you should.
There is nothing wrong with analyzing a contract. But that's different than letting the SC price determine the value.
What you say makes great PC, except that, we don't reconcile the point value to exactly that of one of our best comp 90% of the time, do we?
Yet we have appraisers who arrive at a point value that matches a SC price 90% or higher, some virtually 100%. That clearly shows a strong weight on the SC price, much more so than on any other comp, pending, or market indicator on the report.
Looking at the high percent of times appraisals come in exactly at SC price, how is it that a buyer and seller always manage, a few weeks or more prior, to arrive at the exact same amount in a SC price that later the appraiser will opine as their point value?
These folks are amazing!
Real world: when they negotiate price, the parties don't have an appraised MVO to work off, so they don't factor it in. They work off a CMA the realtor gave them, the asking price of the house, and their own personal finances and motivations.
So, how is it, that they managed to arrive exactly at our MVO three weeks earlier? (or whenever they signed contract)
Oh no they didn't....what happened is, a few weeks later, on the effective date, we have the knowledge of their negotiated price. They didn't have our MVO, but we have their negotiated price..drumroll... to match our MV to their SC price or not.? To be or not to be, that is the question.
Though a SC price many times can be equivalent to a MVO, there are far more times when it is only marginally supported, at best. But appraisers make it happen anyway. because of client or realtor epectation, and peer practice out there .
Thus, appraisers who actually do what the cert says, derive an independent MVO, are put on the defensive, and grilled about why their MVO and the SC are not twins.
Identical twins, separated at birth! A negotiated price hatched weeks earlier by strangers , happens to become the exact point value delivered by an appraiser weeks later!
Even nature can't accomplish that, real twins are born minutes from each other, and conceived at the same time.
Think about it for a moment...if instead of being deal faciliators, appraisers reclaimed their role as market experts and opined indpendent values, business opportunities would double. Realtors would recomend that parties get an appraisal done prior to negotiating, and sellers would hire an appraiser for a list price.
Right now, few bother working off an appraisal, because they figure that most times, an appaiser is going to match what they want anyway when it is time to get the loan.