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Impact Of Pending Sales On Opinion Of Value ?

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ZZGAMAZZ

Elite Member
Joined
Jul 23, 2007
Professional Status
Certified Residential Appraiser
State
California
Would USPAP compliance be compromised if the sales comparison analysis failed to consider and to report upon the existence of similar properties under contract and pending sale on the effective date, especially if the pending sales would appear to have provided a preponderance of data that contradicts an opinion of value predicated exclusively on closed sales, regardless of how pertinent that the closed sales were on the effective date?

CAVEAT: I don't do appraisal reviews so the question of competence doesn't need to be addressed.
 
The Good Book says that "When a sales comparison approach is necessary for credible assignment results, an appraiser must analyze such comparable sales data as are available to indicate a value conclusion." So does it mention listings? Pendings? Or, do we assume that "sales data" includes listings and pendings... Inquiring minds want to know. Std 1-5 says we have to analyze info about the subject, but that isn't listing and pendings.

Listings and Pendings are "future" sales if they sell. As of the date of appraisal, they are a future event, and if the date of appraisal is a lead cinch cutoff...????

If comfortable with the sales I doubt I would jack up the value just because of a pending (Our MLS does not report pending PRICES and Realtors rarely disclose that to appraisers here) So?? Catch 22. Is it or is it not "sales" data? Donno, you be the judge. Frankly I doubt it is USPAP violating but might not be kosher with Fannie and FHA.
 
Agreed, also a Pending or Listing Value is an "Unknown" as of the effective date; I have seen deals go to a Closing table and get Adjusted for one reason or another, and if the Seller has a pair, the deal will remain as written (it's a Contract); if Not who knows what the bottom line IS.

IMO, (Listing) it does not set a ceiling; (a ceiling is an attempt to indicate a market condition, for the most part it is inaccurate & possibly misleading); we are now at a point of an, "affordability factor" that most participants have limited familiarity with. Taxes are being driven thru the roof in an attempt to make up for Continual Spending, on an occasion when attempting to balance a budget is impaired by the greatest depression of all time (date sensitive timing).
 
I don't see it as a USPAP compliance issue so much as a (possible) competency issue...(imo)...the appraiser decides the SOW, including how much consideration to give to pending sales.

I certainly don't think it bodes well on an appraiser to ignore pending sales, however not using the pending to determine the market value opinion is not the same as ignoring them...like anything else it is market specific and assignment specific. Pendings could have great relevance to one assignment and not in another.

Why is it asked in review section if you are not reviewing an appraisal where this is an issue?
 
IMO, (Listing) it does not set a ceiling; .
While 1 listing may not set a ceiling or even tell us all that much about the market, a bunch of listings may well establish a ceiling based on the principle of substitution (unless properties are selling over the listing price in that market)
 
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In a good appraisal, everything is integrated and supports the conclusions and opinions ....if appraiser says prices are increasing, typically that goes along with a shortage of inventory, short days on market, (under 30 days) and higher priced listings than closed sales ( unless it is a local area strategy to underprice listings to encourage competitive bidding )

Appraisers run into problems when their conclusions and opinions, including the value opinion, contradicts trends and data in the relevant market area. For example appraisers states in report, there is an inventory shortage, when there is an ample supply or over supply of active listings. Appraiser states 30-60 days marketing time, when 2/3 of the listings have been on the market 100 plus days and some are experiencing price reductions.
 
From a review appraiser perspective, I would not have docked you for it. Especially when the available sales say one thing even though the pendings may say another thing. I think it is prudent analysis to mention that there may be an abrupt market change due to this or that. I saw this happen in San Francisco when there were so few sales in a neighborhood. The review appraiser said the origination appraiser missed the value and then included sales just a day after-the-fact to prove their point and come up with a higher value. My review report of both sided with the origination appraiser because no one knows the future holds.
 
I posted in the App Review forum from the perspective of an objective appraisal reviewer, although to address JGrant's question, the thread just as well might have been posted in the General Appraisal forum.

Not that it should change the theme of the thread--in a roundabout response to Post# 3 that alludes to the "potential upper limit of value" established by adjusted active listings--but I was thinking more so about pendings that appear to presage an imminent decline rather than an increase in market value, which I think would be of greater concern to a potential lender, in a mortgage-related assignment, than current value--although that contradicts the implications of an "as is" assignment.

All of that having been said, I also disagree with Post# 7 that opines a perspective that contradicts USPAP, which goes out of its stodgy way carefully to explain why sales recorded after a date -- despite being published in the context of retrospective appraisals--can be used, and by inference, should . . . must be considered, if they would have been known under normal circumstances on the effective date. Retrospective to me is last week rather than merely a specific date in the past.

Viewed from a different perspective, because nothing that leads up to the "effective date" of a report has any bearing on the future--statistically or otherwise--the appraiser's market analysis has absolutely no bearing on anything after the effective date.

Methinks that a lot of appraisal theory taken for granted is meaningless, as a revisionist analysis of USPAP might reveal, there often being additions--and deletions--to concepts previously held inviolable.
 
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A reviewer likely would take note if the opinion of market value appeared divorced from the listing and pending sale trend. There is no USPAP requirement that an appraiser must consider pending sales in reconciling the value opinion. However, USPAP does measure competence in part by peer practice , and most competent peer practice is to consider listing and pending sales.

I believe analyzing listings and pendings yields tremendous information about market trends and not considering them is negligent . While one can say listings indicate a future price, and we are not appraising to find a future price, listing activity does illustrate the ongoing trends beyond today (see A below). Which could influence our reconciliation of the market value opinion, whether it is better supported to opine on a lower, higher, or mid range. It also factors into estimated market exposure. If estimated market exposure is 30-60 and similar listings are 150 DOM, that is a contradiction.

Market participants do not buy or sell in a vacuum. Though they are paying today's price, they buy with the idea of future benefits.What they pay today is influenced by some degree on their perception on where the market is going in near future.

A) Read for exactly what the URAR asks on page one about neighborhood values . It asks are values INCREASING?, (stable), or DECREASING? The ING is an active verb;, ongoing out beyond today.. Meaning it is not a past tense ( past question; have values INCREASED.)
 
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There is nothing in USPAP that says you can or cannot use listings for an opinion of value.

Last month ten homes sold for $200,000 in Smithville with the last one closing yesterday. Today's morning paper says that the Ford plant in town is closing and 5,000 jobs will be lost. The town of 20,000 will be devastated. Those closed sales are worthless.

300 miles away the local Ford plant is expanding its plant and adding 5,000 jobs in a town of 20,000. Pending sales are most likely a better indicator of value than those that sold before the announcement.
 
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