How Long Do You Think It Will Be?

[Randolph Kinney]

Aren't these almost always wrong though?

Until they are right.

 

[Terrel L. Shields]

Until they are right.

The popular press is rarely right. Remember how they were pushing RE in 2005-07? And listening now you'd think the whole Hawaiian island chain is about to go up in smoke....not just a few square miles of one corner of one island.

 

[Randolph Kinney]

“When debt is this steep and default rates are low, something’s gotta give,” wrote the firm’s Terry Chan. “A material repricing in bond markets or faster-than-expected normalization in money market rates could impact credit profiles.”


https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...rporate-debt-could-trigger-next-default-cycle

Interest rates are moving up quickly. That is going to impact both the interest on the national debt as well as corporations than have been buying back stock with borrowed money.

 

[Rlong]

A correction is in order, this does not necessary mean it is a 'Crash". Crash has certain connotations "Stock Market CRASH" that looks good in headlines, but is not significantly useful for rational economic discussion. It SHOULD correct as many point out. It only hurts if you have to sell that week/month/year, other than that you can just sit and wait it out. (and appraisers the foreclosed homes of those that suffered other financial losses) It's not like ARM's are rampant like they were.

 

[TRESinc]

A correction is in order, this does not necessary mean it is a 'Crash". Crash has certain connotations "Stock Market CRASH" that looks good in headlines, but is not significantly useful for rational economic discussion. It SHOULD correct as many point out. It only hurts if you have to sell that week/month/year, other than that you can just sit and wait it out. (and appraisers the foreclosed homes of those that suffered other financial losses) It's not like ARM's are rampant like they were.

that's a pretty easy thing to say, not to do.


just ran across this article:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...ting-homes-decline-as-inventory-woes-continue

National home values have increased 8.7 percent since last April to a median value of $215,600, according to Zillow.

Newly released data from the Federal Housing Finance Agency confirm the widespread gains seen by Zillow as home prices rose in all 50 states and the District of Columbia in the first quarter of 2018 compared to a year earlier. The FHFA report shows first-quarter home prices rose 6.9 percent from a year earlier. Annual appreciation surpassed 10 percent in Nevada (13.7 percent), Washington (13.1 percent), Idaho (11.1 percent), Colorado (10.6 percent).

The rise in home prices has allowed more people to take cash-out of the homes when they refinance. Refinancing, where the home owner took additional cash out, rose to 61 percent in the first quarter -- the highest rate seen since the third quarter of 2008, according to FHFA data.



The pace of appreciation seen by Zillow is the fastest since June 2006, when home values were rising nine percent annually.

San Jose home values appreciated 26 percent year-over-year. Las Vegas, Seattle, Dallas-Fort Worth, San Francisco, Tampa, Atlanta, Charlotte and Orlando all saw double digit a growth.

“The spring home shopping season has been a perfect storm of strong demand and tight supply,” said Zillow senior economist Aaron Terrazas. “Sluggish new construction has exacerbated the supply situation and homes that are hitting the market, are moving very quickly once they do. Americans are also in a spending mood, boosted by recent tax cuts and rising wages.”

In 21 of the 35 largest housing markets, home values have surpassed levels reached during the height of the housing boom over a decade ago.

California Dreamin'
In San Jose, annual home values rose 26 percent to a median of $1,263,900

which was followed by this one:

U.S. Sales of Existing Homes Decline With Inventory Problems Continuing

Sales of U.S. previously owned homes fell in April to a three-month low as lean inventory continued to stand in the way of further progress while driving up prices, National Association of Realtors data showed Thursday.

A limited number of properties on the market helped contribute to the year-over-year gain in prices and dissuaded potential buyers. The lack of supply has been persistent even as job gains and a general improvement in the economy keeps demand elevated.

The market now has to contend with rising interest rates. The average fixed rate on a 30-year mortgage stands at 4.61 percent, the highest in seven years, according to Freddie Mac data.


In a sign of resilient demand, properties typically stayed on the market for 26 days in April, down from 29 days a year ago. Fifty-seven percent of homes sold were on the market for less than a month.

Existing-home sales account for 90 percent of the market and are calculated when a contract closes. New-home sales, considered a timelier indicator though their share is only about 10 percent, are tabulated when contracts get signed.

“We are seeing no breakout in home sales,” Lawrence Yun, NAR’s chief economist, said at a press briefing accompanying the report. “We are stuck in this narrow range at a time when the economy is doing well."

“However, inventory shortages are even worse than in recent years, and home prices keep climbing above what many home shoppers can afford,” Yun said in a statement.

 

[Joe Flacco]

Does there really have to be a new crash thread every week?

 

[Joe Flacco]

You guys need to stop reading the news.

 

[Pittsburgh Pete]

You guys need to stop reading the news.

Much better to put head in the sand?

 

[Joe Flacco]

Much better to put head in the sand?

When does shortage ever indicate a price crash is coming? Unbelievable.

 

[Joe Flacco]

Shortage!