How Long Do You Think It Will Be?

[George Hatch]

I am showing hard data to make my case and you are talking about been there and done that.

You are posting someone else's analyses. Not your own. I'm telling you of the numerous analyses we were running back in the day. It was a daily or weekly thing. if you think i'm lying then just say so, but don't pretend that you're doing any of your own analyses because you aren't. The party line you're parroting was most likely written by some soiboi broker.

 

[Joe Flacco]

You are posting someone else's analyses. Not your own. I'm telling you of the numerous analyses we were running back in the day. It was a daily or weekly thing. if you think i'm lying then just say so, but don't pretend that you're doing any of your own analyses because you aren't. The party line you're parroting was most likely written by some soiboi broker.

you are confusing gathering data with analysis. Why would I gather the data that somebody already gathers for me for free. If you don't see the relationship between active listings and price trend then you are not very good at analysis.

Daily weekly thing okay. Like how prices change on a daily or weekly basis right?

 

[George Hatch]

This is a screenshot from an MC I did in 02/2010. I forget how I got roped into appraising a tract home, but suffice it to say it's an unusual occurrence for me.

 

[Joe Flacco]

OOOOH WOW George!

 

[George Hatch]

you are confusing gathering data with analysis. Why would I gather the data that somebody already gathers for me for free. If you don't see the relationship between active listings and price trend then you are not very good at analysis.

Daily weekly thing okay. Like how prices change on a daily or weekly basis right?

LOL

I was already a CG (which you are not) before you even got out of the 1st grade. My HP12c has forgotten more about appraising than you'll ever learn - particularly at the rate you're going now.

Here are the closed sale volumes in my region during the run up

2003 - 39,929
2004 - 43,672
2005 - 43,303 (a few market segments started peaking in 06/2005)
2006 - 41,274
2007 - 31,334
2008 - 25,506


Etc, etc. Notice how the market was running hard right up until it started to quit.

 

[DTB]

[I haven't attached any timing to it. So on my end there is no "early" involved at this point. ] What I do know is that the extent of a correction is related to the extent of the excess that it corrects, so the longer and more distorted the bull run gets the harder the bear will bite back in response. So from that perspective we're all better off if that occurs sooner rather than later.

(It's not how much you make that counts, it's how much you're able to keep. The guy who leaves money on the table but has booked his 'lesser' profits ends up coming out ahead of the guy who tries to wait it out and gets burned when he's late.)

Try to bear in mind that we're not referring to you two wannabe property moguls who are now being warned - we're referring the masses who don't have access to the early warning signs until 6 months later when the news outlets finally run a story on it. After it's too late.

[What does being way out in front mean, if not before others, i.e. early since you didn't paint the top]

( So if you get out 20% below the top and I get out 20% after the top occurs, we are somehow different, money wise? Problem is you don't know when the top is, neither do I but I know when it's turned)

Wannabe property moguls? Triggered much? I'm 58 and have been moguling since my first multi-family, right out of High School, so give it a rest George. I think I have enough, investing, flipping and rehab experience to know what I'm doing.

edited to add: I've lost $$ on ONE property (35K), combinations of indecision and softening market. Had one listened to other prognosticators one would not have done the 3 deals leading up to that one.

 

[Joe Flacco]

LOL

I was already a CG (which you are not) before you even got out of the 1st grade. My HP12c has forgotten more about appraising than you'll ever learn - particularly at the rate you're going now.

Here are the closed sale volumes in my region during the run up

2003 - 39,929
2004 - 43,672
2005 - 43,303 (a few market segments started peaking in 06/2005)
2006 - 41,274
2007 - 31,334
2008 - 25,506


Etc, etc. Notice how the market was running hard right up until it started to quit.

I didn't ask about closed sales. So you track one side which is demand but never tracked active listings (Supply). That is my point. Nobody tracked active listings before and most still don't today.

I am not arguing that you are not a very skilled appraiser. You are taking things too personal. You are too funny George!

I am saying that when there is a SHORTAGE a crash is not the concern. The price risk is to the upside. Not a crash.

 

[Joe Flacco]

SHORTAGE !!!!!

 

[George Hatch]

Expireds and withdrawns (shows what didn't initially sell)

2003 - 12,469
2004 - 14,269

2005a - 9719
2005b - 15,933 (As I say, some markets started to peak midyear)
2005 - 25,574

2006a -19009
2006b -26,675
2006 - 45,419


2007 - 45,774
2008 - 38,858
2009 - 23100
2010 - 23,209
2011 - 23,489
2012 - 14,961
2013 - 13,705

See the pattern, 2003 through the first half of 2005 prices were still increasing rapidly, much more quickly than the number of failed listings, but then the early 2005 rate suddenly jumped by 61% for the 2nd half of the year and jumped jumped 17% higher than that in early 2006 and jumped another 29% higher than that during the last half of 2006.

And since I know you're going to complain about actives, we've already accounted for the closed sales, so adding the expireds and withdrawns will be double counting some of the actives because some properties were listed multiple times before selling.

The point is, you don't get the huge jump in standing inventory until *after* it sinks in that there is no more short-term upside to be gained. Which goes back to the point I was making earlier that the big gains in standing inventory are a lagging indicator to a declining trend, not a leading indicator.

The reduction in expireds/withdrawns drops prior to the recovery which started to poke up in 2012. I.e. *leading* that trend for increase.

 

[George Hatch]

And just FTR, we need to hope that this upcycle DOES NOT run as far as the previous one, because if it does we'll see more than a "typical" correction; we'll see another crash.