• Welcome to AppraisersForum.com, the premier online  community for the discussion of real estate appraisal. Register a free account to be able to post and unlock additional forums and features.

Sensitivity Analysis For GLA

Status
Not open for further replies.
I get what you are saying. But then that raises the question of if site value is always the value at which new construction or redevelopment is feasible.
 
I dunno if I've mentioned this yet or not, but when I got involved with this assignment I initially expected the site values to be higher in this area given the pricing of the existing homes. I started out thinking one thing and ended up thinking something else. Which as I understand it, speaks to the value of deferring more to the appraisal process and less to my own opinions and biases.

Imo, this is due to the gap between valuing land as vacant lots, and valuing contributory value of the land to dwelling of a finished house.

Can it be the value might be different , depending n which question is asked ? Te question is what is the value of a vacant lot? ( a land appraisal) has one answer. The comps would be vacant lots or lots with depreciated homes bought for land value /torn down to rebuild ) The typical buyers would be spec builders/investors...looking to buy at a lower price because of the risk and using their own cash.

But the question of what is the contributory value of the lot to the dwelling once built might have a different answer ( it is a different question) The same lot can have greater contributory value to the whole once the house is built...where the typical buyer is the owner occupant willing to pay more ...and often using financing. .

Builders are great at getting added value to the land they buy...from rezoning, economy of scale etc. For example, we have some villas here that sell for $ on postage size lots . There is only so much $ to build it cost for a 1200 sf villa with one car garage. Where is the rest of the value then? High land value...but the lot is only 2000 sf. Wow. There are NO, as in zero sales of tiny 2000 sf lots. These lots were created by the builder from a 6 acre (for example ) tract they bought and had rezoned. The land to value ratio has to be extracted, nobody ( typically) is selling 2000 sf lots to build on . The high $ contributory value was achieved by the builder's vision in getting the land rezoned, cutting it up into tiny lots, and throwing in some amenities, a community pool and gate ..but one example of why the CA is of limited value in many res property assignments, though it does have a purpose in getting an idea of cost to build, depreciated cost, land to value ratio.
 
I think I will throw in a curveball.

WRT my market area, for appraisals of existing homes, the CA is simply meant as a check on the validity of the SCA. If the CA is $1.3M and the SCA opinion is $1.5 that is usually considered reasonable. The older the home, the less reliable and less useful the comparison of course.

But in such cases, the CA is meant to answer the question, why should you pay such and such for an existing SFR, when you can go out and build one for less money? Well, the answer for most would be that they either don't have the time to deal with it, or the knowledge to be their own developer. So, the assumption is that most would have to hire a developer to deal with the issues. However, that is really not necessary as most General Contractors can take care of everything just fine. They have a ready buyer and are pretty much ensured of payment - depending on the details of the contract.

The point is, in using the CA for existing homes, I am not sure that introducing the EP, especially the standard EP, is even appropriate. The Contractors Profit is all the General Contractor typically deals with. He is quite capable of locking all estimated funds in advance of construction; ....

Of course, no one wants to talk about this sort of thing, and would rather just sidestep the discussion, - because, for one thing, you need EP to bridge the gap to SCA and for another thing, everybody just does it. However, point being, all such discussion is kind of fruitless, the approach is seriously incapacitated to begin with.

My point is consistently, on this forum, - yea, there is a hell of a lot of BS in appraisal. This is of course another example. I would keep going back to Eratosthenes fairly exact and simple calculation of the circumference of the earth around 200BC. You really have to ask yourself how it is that people, smart people, could not figure this out for another 2000 years. Columbus was off by 25% compared to Eratosthenes 3%. Having an IQ doesn't mean much without the right kind of motivation and focus.


A very good book I can recommend is "Superhuman: Life at the Extremes of Our Capacity". I like this from the section on focus:

"One day we were visited by a highly respected master from another club. He was an old man, and we were given the honor of facing him in combat practice. He held his shinai carelessly, drooping almost, so it grazed the floor. When it was my turn he seemed to be looking away, lost in thought. I was facing him in the usual pose, shinai raised and poised. Yet when I went to attack him—it would require only a small, fast movement to strike his head with my sword—he moved in a way I couldn’t afterward adequately describe. With insane rapidity yet somehow also with apparent casualness, he raised his weapon and struck my helmet before I could complete my strike. Immediately afterward he took on once more the appearance of a distracted old man. For the merest instant he had revealed his true self. Okay, the anecdote may say more about my poor technique than it does about the old man’s Yoda-like ability, but when he had left, my kendo sensei said the old master had extraordinary powers of concentration and reaction, honed over many decades of practice. He lived in the now. The old man encapsulates what we’re going to explore in this chapter: the ability to focus, to concentrate, and to react. Attention is a quality like the flame of a candle. It is ungraspable yet needs tending; it is always moving; it changes as you look at it. It is the “now” we live in. This is going to sound like a Zen koan, but those who can master the now will be able to perform at a higher level. Those who can focus their minds can achieve great things. …. (Hooper, Rowan. Superhuman: Life at the Extremes of Our Capacity (Kindle Locations 1239-1250). Simon & Schuster. Kindle Edition. )


Getting back to the CA. No one replied. Sensing I suppose a trap.

Yea, the EI and EP are BS for the CA, residential appraisal of existing construction.

It's "CONVENIENCE". Yea. People don't go out and build their own homes because they don't want to deal with it. You can add all kinds of ifs, and buts. But it comes down to CONVENIENCE. The gap between the true cost and market value is convenience. You could measure it. You could make some tables. EP is effectively the same as Convenience. Only Convenience has absolutely nothing to do with profit.

EI? What good is EI? Whatever the contractor makes it, if it is too high, it will sell for MV and EP wins, - simple as that. If it is too low, of course it gets raised to MV and EP wins. EI is for the CA NONSENSE.


And EP is a misnomer. It is what the home buyer is willing to pay for an existing home, new or used, above the cost of construction, and, well, the consumer doesn't know a thing about the costs. It is for the convenience of not building his own home.


+
 
Last edited:
I get what you are saying. But then that raises the question of if site value is always the value at which new construction or redevelopment is feasible.

I've never seen it bench marked that the site value is only that at which new construction or redevelopment is feasible ( feasible for who? ) But one can ask a question and have it answered, if the question is identified as the purpose of the assignment.

Normally the OMV for a site is the most probable price the site would bring in an open market, at X estimate time of market exposure. Whether that price is also "feasible" aka profitable for development? Who knows...but if sites are being bought for tear down of old houses at high prices, it is feasible for somebody to be developing it, or it would not be happening in the market. Whether it makes sense or is profitable is another matter, but if it is being done by market it would be reflected in prices.
 
I get what you are saying. But then that raises the question of if site value is always the value at which new construction or redevelopment is feasible.

One thing that some people might not necessarily relate to is that our weather patterns only consist of 2 seasons; cooler and warmer. We don't get snow, we don't get the constant freezing/roasting cycle or even the high humidity. Our cars generally don't rust out. Foundations don't decay. The point of no return here isn't the same as it would be in other regions that actually have seasons. Nearly all beaters can be brought back into servicable condition. Parts is parts. With sites where a single SFR is still the HBU the factor that most commonly leads to redevelopment is usually related to whether or not the size of the existing home is nominally adequate in the current market. Not whether it's too old.

Rehab is big business here. The property on Willalee that the broker mischaracterized as brand new construction is an example of that.
 
Its not like residential rehab or redevelopment is not big business outside of California. Visit any city between Washington and Boston and tell me that market Dynamics are not similar.

Redevelopment is not caused by the size of the existing house being inadequate or the house being too old. Redevelopment is caused by one thing which is profit incentive to do so.
 
Last edited:
Cheaper to rehab than to build new due to fees and permits. That's how the house on Willalee went from $630k to $950k. Had that parcel been used for new construction it would have been a 2800sf house and sold in excess of $1.2m. Which wouldn't have been as profitable as the house that was built on New York and sold for $1.13m - due to the difference in site acquisition cost.

You make your money when you buy. Speaking of which, this is what the site on New York looked like in 2015 prior to the sale at $320k.
 

Attachments

  • 2015.JPG
    2015.JPG
    132.8 KB · Views: 2
Last edited:
The developer did not build new because it was not feasible.
 
The developer did not build new because it was not feasible.

Not at $630k, anyway. The project on New York apparently was feasible at it's acquisition price.
 
Status
Not open for further replies.
Find a Real Estate Appraiser - Enter Zip Code

Copyright © 2000-, AppraisersForum.com, All Rights Reserved
AppraisersForum.com is proudly hosted by the folks at
AppraiserSites.com
Back
Top