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Sensitivity Analysis For GLA

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Wasatch

Freshman Member
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Feb 24, 2017
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Certified General Appraiser
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I've been using a sensitivity analysis Excel sheet that I have tweaked to my liking. Sometimes it seems reliable, other times the suggested adjustment goes through the roof (or the floor). In any case, my question is this: is it logical that the analysis would tend to return a higher adjustment for higher-valued properties, or is it possible they are independent (for example: comps for a $200k home could have a $35/sf adj for GLA, and comps for a $300k home could have only a $25/sf adj for GLA)? Intuitively it seems they should move together, but I'd like to hear from all of you. Thanks in advance!
 
Well I will be the first to take a stab at this and explain it in semi-layman type of terms. Its quite common for For Sale by Owners(they know everything) to think there is a direct relationship of Square footage to MV and/or Cost. They will often point out in their hood a neighbors house down the street recently sold for $100 per ft. The do this by dividing the sales price of the neighbors sale using the GLA. Example: Neighbor's house is 2,000 sf GLA sold for $200,000.= $100 per sf.. Meaning that his house is worth more than the neighbor because he has 2,300 sf. Hence his house is worth $230,000. WRONG!

Here is why its likely to be wrong. Lets remove actual age and physical condition for a moment. Lets say you have a 1200 sf 5 room 3 br, 2 bath ranch. This is a common house in the immediate hood of the subject. The home owner wants to add a family/den room on back of house. It is legally permissible. So the question is simple but more complex when you dig into this add-on improvement. How large should it be to maximize MV. Cost is just that cost. MV is another story. If he adds adds 12x20 room 240 sf) then the MV reaction is going to be most likely positive and a great idea. Most importantly the MV response will or should exceed cost considerably. 1 to 1/2 times comes to mind. Especially if the subject was the smallest in the Hood. Some home owners mistakenly think that if the above is true then a bonus room of 480 sft will equate to double the SF MV! We know from experience that this is not true. Its an over-improvement. The larger room has the same functional utility but it is excessive in relation to the total GLA. There is a point of diminishing returns.

I dont know if this makes any sense to you. I am winging it right now in my response. Bert the Regression Guy can demonstrate it with his model. Others will explain it similar to my way but more professionally(they will use bigger words).

Hope I was helpful.

Side Note: Google Analytics think they have me figured out! WRONG. They have only clues. Sometimes they get it right, most of the time they are wrong...really wrong!

i said this because Bert the Self Proclaimed Regression Expert on this forum is trying to convince all of us that his stuff is the end to end all. I don't agree with him on that, BUT I will say that what he says here is very useful. I see the advantages of what he is hawking. NP_MAI is very familiar and knowledgeable about Regression. His educational background is very high.

My thoughts are that Regression is very useful tool in RE Appraising. It will not replace the Boots on the ground Appraiser, IMHO.

The real threat to society is when 'Puters' are able to think! That takes imagination and I don't belive this is going to be possible for quite awhile.

Interesting comment by Bert! Read his post at this link! So i take back a little of what I said about him above.

https://appraisersforum.com/forums/...-survives-as-a-contest-judge-of-sorts.221482/
 
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My thoughts are that as you go up in price and GLA, minor GLA variances become less significant. A 300 sq. ft variance is a big deal on 1,500 sq ft house. 5K sq ft? Not so much. As you go up, the price drivers are typically things other than minimal GLA variances. Finish, features and privacy of the lot are bigger impact, IME.
 
I've been using a sensitivity analysis Excel sheet that I have tweaked to my liking. Sometimes it seems reliable, other times the suggested adjustment goes through the roof (or the floor). In any case, my question is this: is it logical that the analysis would tend to return a higher adjustment for higher-valued properties, or is it possible they are independent (for example: comps for a $200k home could have a $35/sf adj for GLA, and comps for a $300k home could have only a $25/sf adj for GLA)? Intuitively it seems they should move together, but I'd like to hear from all of you. Thanks in advance!

How much/What data are you feeding in and are you adjusting for everything else leaving on sf ? ( because that is what sensitivity analysis is ) Imo it is best done right there on the grid with your comps...throw in an extra comp or 2 so there are at least 4 comps, you can always remove one. Though fewer in number, your comps (hopefully ) are the most similar and qualified properties so the results are meaningful. Adjust for all other factors, then the sf will reveal itself. I typically dont adjust for small variances though some appraisers do.

Best prep for appraising with meaning ful results is shadow a RE agent for a few weeks. Pay them for the privilege or do some free appraisals for them in exchange. I sold RE for 5 plus years prior to appraising ( as have some other folks ) and the experience is invaluable. At one time in the past appraisers had to get a RE sales license first ////not that we should value houses the way agents do, ( we shouldn't ) but the experience seeing first hand what buyers want how they think and how prices are negotiated is amazing and about as far from spreadsheets and logic as it gets.

It stands to reason that typically price per sf would increase with the price range of the house...it costs more to build and costs more to buy, thus typically would retrieve more in the market ( unless home is an over built property then it becomes an over improvement with SF losing value )

Talk to RE agents as well and get a feel for it through doing the appraisals. Be mindful not to become one of the appraisers who produce charts and Statistics yet are tone deaf to the market. They usually end up not appraising much because their results one assumes are wonky ;while mathematically fitting some formula or spread sheet, dont jibe with the market.
 
At one time in the past appraisers had to get a RE sales license first ////not that we should value houses the way agents do, ( we shouldn't ) but the experience seeing first hand what buyers want how they think and how prices are negotiated is amazing and about as far from spreadsheets and logic as it gets.
:clapping::clapping:

And is the reason why AVMs and predictive statistics aren't as accurate, at the same micro-level, as appraisals.

.
 
Sensitivity analysis can be an excellent tool for supporting GLA adjustments. However, like all tools it has strengths and weaknesses. It tends to work very well when the comparable properties are more homogeneous with regard to the factors other than GLA. If one starts introducing comparbles that require significant adjustment for other factors that are difficult to quantify, then the results can be skewed.

Also, high land value ratios can result in GLA adjustments that seem counter intuitive. If the site value accounts for 80% of the total value, for example, GLA adjustments might appear to be small in comparison to the gross sale prices of the properties.
 
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the analysis would tend to return a higher adjustment for higher-valued properties

So, does that sound logical?
 
Sensitivity analysis can be an excellent tool for supporting GLA adjustments. However, like all tools it has strengths and weaknesses. It tends to work very well when the comparable properties are more homogeneous with regard to the factors other than GLA. If one starts introducing comparbles that require significant adjustment for other factors that are difficult to quantify, then the results can be skewed.

Also, high land value ratios can result in GLA adjustments that seem counter intuitive. If the site value accounts for 80% of the total value, for example, GLA adjustments might appear to be small in comparison to the gross sale prices of the properties.

I just want to add that if land value ratio is high then the GLA adjustment IS small in comparison to the gross sale prices of the properties.

Site characteristics like location, size, width, are dominant factors.
 
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