YouTube MARS Appraiser Forum

[RCA]

I am creating a YouTube channel for using R earth for appraisal:

https://youtube.com/@PacificVistaNet,

I will:

1. Focus on MARS (Multivariate Adaptive Regression Splines) using the R earth package by Stephen Milborrow. I will probably start with my presentation at the Salford Systems Data Mining Conference in 2006 (see attachment).

2. Then, I will create videos on numerous topics such as:

a) Downloading and cleaning data from the MLS.
b) Generation of supporting graphs
c) Ancillary routines for analysis.
d) Processing MARS models to create estimates and residuals.
e) Handling of mass comparables.
f) Deciding on subject comparables and how to handle them.
g) Higher-order interactions.
h) Special problems (by feature) such as missing data, fireplaces, parking issues, GIS and so on. GIS is a good subject in itself.
i) Excursions into related and more advanced methods, such as BMARS (Bayesian MARS) which is based off of the earth package.
j) Full automation of processes up to and including loading into Alamode and possibly Clickforms (Jeff Bradford says Clickforms can handle automated uploaded from Excel - but I have to date never tried it).
.... and so on.

I will probably cover other issues such as:
a) Technical photography for appraisers (and other real estate professionals)
b) Photography & Mapping with Aerial Drones
c) QGIS (Quantum GIS)
d) Measurement & Floorplans with Chief Architect.

Bert Craytor

 

[Artemis Fowl]

Subscribed

 

[RCA]

OK. So I uploaded my first-ever online video. Imperfections and all. But, a start.

Appropriately, it is about "Why The Adjusted Sales Prices for Comparables Must Be Equal" - although more than that.

It includes the two relevant mathematical proofs:

Best to view as 4K (2160p) -- go to "Settings" -> "Quality" --> 2160p

Best to use Chrome to download this Excel spreadsheet:

https://pacificvista.net/valuationeng...

 

[RCA]

OK. So I uploaded my first-ever online video. Imperfections and all. But, a start.

Appropriately, it is about "Why The Adjusted Sales Prices for Comparables Must Be Equal" - although more than that.

It includes the two relevant mathematical proofs:

Best to view as 4K (2160p) -- go to "Settings" -> "Quality" --> 2160p

Best to use Chrome to download this Excel spreadsheet:

https://pacificvista.net/valuationeng...

Interesting though. I have just proven that nearly every residential appraisal done since the beginning of USPAP is in violation of USPAP, most likely 99.99%+. I have proven that all of the educational programs approved by TAF with respect to using the Sales Comparison Approach are in violation of USPAP, as well as those of the Appraisal Institute. Yet no comments? Interesting. But why exactly? What are the reasons for this?

Note: My presentation was unscripted so I did miss a few details:

1. If you want to make the Adjusted Sale Prices different, just make one different and that means you must change either the subject value contribution for that feature or the comparable value contribution or both. All value contributions must add up to the sale price minus concessions. So, if you deviate from the math, you implicitly alter the comparable sale price, the subject estimated sale price (value conclusion) - or both.

2. So, for example, someone on this forum just admitted to a $100K difference in the adjusted sale prices. Maintains he is right. Actually, he has made $100K in total errors .... Interesting?

3. Now you should know how SCREWED UP the entire appraisal system is and has been for the past several decades.

Who is to blame? - Oh, that is the nasty question. A bunch of old heavily experienced guys at the edge of retirement, plus just about everyone else.

Isn't this just the tip of the iceberg?

 

[alebrewer]

Interesting though. I have just proven that nearly every residential appraisal done since the beginning of USPAP is in violation of USPAP, most likely 99.99%+. I have proven that all of the educational programs approved by TAF with respect to using the Sales Comparison Approach are in violation of USPAP, as well as those of the Appraisal Institute. Yet no comments? Interesting. But why exactly? What are the reasons for this?

Kudos to you for giving back to your profession, Bert! I will subscribe for sure.

As an aside, though, why do you feel the need to poopoo everything and everyone? It's very off-putting. Seems this kind of unnecessary attack would discourage folks from subscribing, not enjoin them...

 

[RCA]

Kudos to you for giving back to your profession, Bert! I will subscribe for sure.

As an aside, though, why do you feel the need to poopoo everything and everyone? It's very off-putting. Seems this kind of unnecessary attack would discourage folks from subscribing, not enjoin them...

Change. I want to force change. I will continue to attack.

The attacks will become broader and deeper.

At least when I have time. I do have other work to do.

 

[Red Flint]

Implicitely is a spelling violation.

Implicitly

 

[alebrewer]

Change. I want to force change. I will continue to attack.

The attacks will become broader and deeper.

At least when I have time. I do have other work to do.

meh - at least your'e honest about being mean to people. Don't have much use for those kind of folks myself.

 

[RCA]

meh - at least your'e honest about being mean to people. Don't have much use for those kind of folks myself.

I don't consider "attack" synonymous with "mean". There are many definitions of "mean" - I think you mean making derogatory statements. Everybody on this forum pretty much is engaged in making derogatory statements about institutions and people in the industry, including you.

1. The Appraisal Institute and TAF in particular have heavily insulated themselves against criticism. They are immune from criticism. At one time, AI members could loose their membership by making derogatory statements about the AI or appraisal in general. It was in their bylaws. It was removed I think around the 2007 meltdown -- Yes, for some reason. Still, I have had MAIs warn me that I could have problems with my criticism. And I do believe that is the case. Critical letters to the editor of the Appraisal Journal, are just thrown in the trash can as if they didn't exist. Criticism on the outer flanks of the organization is covered up as a matter of procedure by their stoogies and surrogates.

2. TAF is highly insulated of course. Look at Jeremy Bagott --- how far has he gotten in all of these years with his writings?

3. I wonder whether the international community is different, for example in Europe. It is a bit different for sure. But you will see even more insulation there. Their governments are extremely bureaucratic and hierarchical.

I think progress with respect to appraisal will actually be done by software engineers. They are the modern Samurai. They are. The toughest people in the world. Brave.

Appraisal progress will happen outside of appraisal by non-idiots.

 

[RCA]

I and others will continue to increase our "attacks" - by further detailed and logical analyses of what is wrong with traditional appraisal institutions and regulations. Poignant attacks accompanied by hard-core mathematical proof and logic, will, with time, continue to weaken their foundations - until the public no longer acknowledges their authority.

At the same time, these said institutions will be gradually replaced by a new appraisal system - that has the respect of the public.

Another way of looking at this, is that there is not just ONE appraisal system, there is a growing set of alternatives. Systems die and arise with the people behind them.

Death to the old, in with the new.