Order Volume

[Damienvball]

I have been a certified residential appraiser for over 20 years and work has never been this sparse. Order volume is at a crawl in recent weeks and I am just curious if anyone else is as worried as I am.

 

[WestMichiganCG]

Dude....just open up a brewery. Get a few IPA's on tap, some hotties to serve the beer and take credit cards, some picnic tables, 60" led tv's for sports, a couple of used pinball machines and you're rolling.

Speaking of rolling, you cut a deal with some food trucks to get a % of their cut to let them park and serve outside the warehouse doors.

I looked into buying one this year. My buddy who's a bartender talked me out of it. You're buying a job is basically the advice he gave me. I did like the idea a lot though.

 

[Fernando]

I looked into buying one this year. My buddy who's a bartender talked me out of it. You're buying a job is basically the advice he gave me. I did like the idea a lot though.

I knew of a bartender who became an appraiser. He's active in Appraisal Institute. Good for him.

 

[Deleted member 142783]

Do this every Wednesday search "mortgage applications" then hit the new tab. This will tell you if you are going to be busy or slow for the next week or so.

Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest MBA Weekly Survey

Mortgage applications decreased 6.0 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending September 29, 2023.

www.mba.org

The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, decreased 6.0 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index decreased 6 percent compared with the previous week. The Refinance Index decreased 7 percent from the previous week and was 11 percent lower than the same week one year ago. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index decreased 6 percent from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index decreased 6 percent compared with the previous week and was 22 percent lower than the same week one year ago.



I am pretty much out of the biz, but I still get request. 95% of my requests are for FHA...

I realize the volume is low and this is the main reason, but...

I have to wonder how much work are we REALLY losing to hybrids, desktops, waivers and AVMs with property inspections for Conventional orders? In my area, the big AMCs (the GSE picked) are controlling most of the market for non-traditional orders. This means most are staff or are the same small pool of appraisers doing most of the non-traditional work.

Many have posted data on just one part of the "new system". I would like to see data on all of the orders: 1004 traditional, hybrids, and avms with property inspections, AVMs and waivers.

Just do not given us the data on waivers.....

I know many appraisers in my market. Only one does hybrids, nobody else even sees them as orders. Fee is 180k and it as much work as a 1004, but he takes them because “what else am I going to do”

I think they find the suckers that will take the 150-200 and keep them slammed

 

[Deleted member 142783]

It’s the end of an era. fund rates from 0 to 5.5 and going up slowly to save the currency. By the next boom the clients/people/system will be different. This re-set of the monetary environment is the lowest volume I’ve had in 38 years (forever). It’s not just us. The entire economy has been supported by low rates and all investments were influenced by low rates. The dollar itself is incrementally losing its reserve power which allows the USA to be a cubicle working Starbucks drinking population and not a hard working pollution breathing, dying younger population. A 5.5 percent (normal) Fed funds rate will break the economy and the federal solvency so what’s going to happen? Many directions possible .. none good. Hyper inflation if they start up QE 6 and force rates down… depression if they allow the market to set rates.. decades long malaise stagflation …Global war to obfuscate and blur cause identity.

In the last 4 months 1.5 trillion in debt and during an economy the MSM keeps repeating is “strong”. Where is the tax revenue?

My bet is on global war.

They won’t leave rates high and be to “blame”. They may print to infinity, but that have become obvious to the public (inflation). It’s gunna be a major war

 

[Deleted member 142783]

I did a deep dive for my clients on this very question 6-9 months ago. What I found was that while refi volume was obviously down, normal sales volume was only down in my market around 15%...BUT my quote/order volume was down (just on purchases) about 60%. That tells me that a majority of MY decline was due to alternative products. Yes, my fees are not the lowest, but I am factoring in QUOTE requests as well. There is no reason an AMC will remove an appraiser from a bid list just because they typically bid higher than others. They want as many on those quote/bid lists as possible. So the marked decline in even bidding opps tells me what I need to know. I have also spoken to specific lenders and AMCs who have told me essentially the same--that more and more orders are going the waiver/hybrid/in house appraiser route than ever before. Part of that is since refi volume is down, fewer total orders are available, so the in house folks can better handle the volume, and there is no longer any overflow.

Pent up demand will lead to more activity, and there will be a normalization of people's acceptance of current rates, so refis will slowly come back, but how many of these will even make it to a 1004 (or similar bill-paying level of income orders)?

Again, best wishes to those staying in the biz.

Thanks for the info

 

[Non Sequitur]

Refi volume will be low for a loooong time. Even if rates drop, will the values be there for those who put little or nothing down? I don't think so.

Let's not forget that AMCs like Class and hybrid AMCs like True Footage are staffing up to take what little sales volume there is now. And whether it's waivers or desktops the numbers show our "traditional" work is going bye-bye. There's not much a boots on the ground appraiser can do right now. Even if the VC money behind Class and True Footage dries up, the GSEs are hell bent on turning what we do into a click and I don't believe they will stop until it's accomplished.

 

[Terrel L. Shields]

The gist of the refi problem is the FED screwed it up by ever allowing rates to go below 3%. Zero interest invited poor investment decisions and has made it nearly impossible to raise rates without killing the RE market, endangering the health of banks and freezing homeowners into their current mortgage.

 

[Fernando]

The gist of the refi problem is the FED screwed it up by ever allowing rates to go below 3%. Zero interest invited poor investment decisions and has made it nearly impossible to raise rates without killing the RE market, endangering the health of banks and freezing homeowners into their current mortgage.

You didn't think below 3% was going to stay forever. It was good while it lasted. Stop the complaining.

 

[Terrel L. Shields]

You didn't think below 3% was going to stay forever. It was good while it lasted. Stop the complaining.

There's nothing good about it to someone without a mortgage payment for 20 years. It means you have to invest in risky stocks at a time in your life you need less risk. In the dotcom bubble I heard of a lady who lost 60% of her money due to bad advice on mutual funds that turned out to contain mostly the same stocks. Not nearly as diversified as advertised. Do you expect elderly women to be financially savvy investors?