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Appraisals are psychology

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Been playing with a model that minimizes the adjusted range of a data set based on the appraiser's opinion of elements of comparison. Of course, this really only works on a relatively large data set where outliers are removed, but looking at a set of 20 sales of newer construction (2020-2024) homes in my market, I was able to reduce the adjusted range to < $27k with an SD of only $8,300 and both median and mean at $380k. IF my subject elements of comparison are equal to what I modeled - I could say with VERY strong confidence that the value would be $380k +/- a few $. Might someone pay less for a similar property? Sure. Might someone pay more? Of course. But that would be atypical market behavior based on the model results.

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The whole construct of "neighborhood" is a canard of the worst order. What do buyers start with? Well, if they have any sense, they will start with looking for something they can afford and qualify for. That's number one. That, in turn, determines how big, how old, and where the area lays. As pointed out, that isn't some monolithic area. The buyer is looking in a specific range completely divorced from a coherent "neighborhood."
As buyers have less available to choose from, their market area expands. Minneapolis has 83 different neighborhoods. It used to be that an entry-level buyer would be able to afford a home in half of the neighborhoods, but they would choose to shop in 2 or 3 based on their preferences. During covid, due to supply, they could afford homes in maybe 20 neighborhoods, and they were forced to shop in all 20. Now, due to less competition, they might be shopping in their top 10 neighborhoods. Sames goes for the suburbs. Market areas have changed drastically in a matter of 5 years.
 
The prior generation of appraisers (for the most part) had no idea how to quantify adjustments. Now we have a plethora of tools.
And, IMO, the appraised values today have little or no more reliability than those from 40 years ago. Sure, the reports today are 5-10X longer and some of the adjustments may be 'supported' by the data, but the market/buyers don't 'support' adjustments in their buying decisions and could care less what the data says, they "WANT THIS HOUSE" for various and typically obscure reasons. Reasons that defy 'support' but, nonetheless, are valid to many buyers and have some appraisers pulling out their hair trying to support an adjustment that, in all likelihood, has the same credibility as the old rectal extraction method.
 
And, IMO, the appraised values today have little or no more reliability than those from 40 years ago. Sure, the reports today are 5-10X longer and some of the adjustments may be 'supported' by the data, but the market/buyers don't 'support' adjustments in their buying decisions and could care less what the data says, they "WANT THIS HOUSE" for various and typically obscure reasons. Reasons that defy 'support' but, nonetheless, are valid to many buyers and have some appraisers pulling out their hair trying to support an adjustment that, in all likelihood, has the same credibility as the old rectal extraction method.
If what you're saying is correct, then you've built a very strong argument that appraisals are not needed.
 
If what you're saying is correct, then you've built a very strong argument that appraisals are not needed.
At any time during your years as an appraiser....
Have you not thought that....
I'm betting non-appraisers have often thought of that....
 
The level of subjectivity in the decision making in the SFR markets are unique to that property type. The only other common property type that sometimes operates more subjectively than normal are some of the small freestanding office properties.

More that any other property type, SFRs and condos meet the emotional needs of the market participants in addition to their utilitarian needs. Nobody gets emotionally invested in owning an industrial or a retail center or a 20ac parcel of rural scrublands and appraising those properties don't usually require much subjective judgement except sometimes being necessary to bridge a big gap in the quantity/quality of the comparable data.

When I appraise 5+ multi-family I don't even make line item adjustments for location, quality, condition, etc. I just let the rental income speak and adjust by income ratio - that's because the investors are buying the cash flow that the variables result in at the tenant level, not the variables themselves.
 
The whole construct of "neighborhood" is a canard of the worst order. What do buyers start with? Well, if they have any sense, they will start with looking for something they can afford and qualify for. That's number one. That, in turn, determines how big, how old, and where the area lays. As pointed out, that isn't some monolithic area. The buyer is looking in a specific range completely divorced from a coherent "neighborhood."

A buyer may focus upon a single town, a single part of a town, and consider proximity to work above all. Some buyers want outside of a city limit, others want inside a city limit. Some are looking to get a condo and not have to mow their own lawn, etc. But do they have to have that specific condo? Probably not.

To me, proximity is the least important aspect of comparison. One should focus upon the dollar amount - something that is the very antithesis of what we've been told where price isn't to be factored in. Well, buyers are forced by their economics to focus on cost. And many a buyer rejected a home they like better because it was too far above their budget. Once we've found a price range, then we can dissect the area that the buyers want to live, and within that context determine the factors that are driving prices. Condition. No one wants to have to deal with a fixer upper unless you are simply someone with that bend or you are a flipper. Age and condition go hand in hand. Next you have to deal with size. Bigger is more expensive. Some buyers are looking for ordinary. Some have large families. Again, these different demographics cannot be pigeon-holed into one area, one "neighborhood".

The gist is that these are imprecise hence very subjective determinations and as appraisers we are second-guessing the mythical "typical" buyer. No one really knows. But no computer program, call it "AI or not", provides real heuristic judgments we make every day. Experience counts.
I think the primary strength of the GSE valuation model is that it enables an appraiser to zero in on probable price using a very small number of datapoints. That there may be a directly comparable neighborhood that is less proximate to the subject neighborhood is fine, and it's fair game for analysis but at the same time it's arguably unnecessary to analyze 20 if the same outcome is possible by analyzing (to specs) only 3.

There exists a point of diminishing returns where doing more doesn't necessarily produce a more usable result. Additionally, there also exists a point where doing more doesn't earn a higher fee. Can I build an elaborate bigger-data model for this assignment? Of course I can. But I can't do it for a $200 appraisal fee.
 
At any time during your years as an appraiser....
Have you not thought that....
I'm betting non-appraisers have often thought of that....
I have a fairly pessimistic outlook in general, so I may not be representative of the typical market participant. Not to mention that I don't necessarily believe in what can be, unburdened by what has been.
 
I don't think repeating the slogan counts if you're not performing the hand gestures that go with it. With your permission I shall prefer to envision you doing exactly that when deploying the slogan.
 
I was half joking when I said perhaps stating neighborhood boundaries should be removed.

However, the market area of properties competitive to the sbuect can be within the neighobrood boundaries, or expand beyond it.

Often, the most competive sales a buyer would consider are in close proximity. Those sales , as comps, competed with other seller offerings in the area. Taht said, there are cases where the better sales are further way. That judgement That might be called "subjective" on the part of the appraiser, but it reallly is about what the buyer would consider as the altnerate choice to an indivudal subject property.

A beach front property 3 miles away has more in common with a beach front subject than an interior lot house 1/2 mile away. If an appraiser can not undersatnd that they need to pursue a different line of work. A problem with an AVM or staiscal regression or data is it can mix in close proximity sales , or far proxmity sales, neither of which are comps for the subject and thus skew results.
 
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