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Appraisals are psychology

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It seems like the goal is to continue to make appraisers more like AVMs, to eliminate our strengths and capacity to reason, and then make us compete on their terms. Every appraiser, if given the tools and training to do so, should always be able to provide a more credible OMV than even the strongest AVM. We have everything it has, plus more. There should be more available to allow us to augment our processes to make us stronger. This is the way of the future (i.e. brain-compiter interface). Instead the GSEs are more focused on winning the man vs. machine competition, which they set the rules to.
 
If so, what if the subject was on the west side of Main but it was constructed in 1995? The question in that scenrio becomes, will buyers consider both areas part of the same market area? Properties that are directly adjacent to each other can have different market areas.
Definitely a more challenging scenario to model, but you know it's coming. Model the easy scenarios first - homogeneous neighborhoods are MUCH easier to model than heterogeneous neighborhoods. Doesn't mean someone's not going to be able to eventually figure it out - and they will. Same with functional and external obsolescence. Those are difficult to model without access to stuff like traffic flow/room layout (for functional) and being able to identify, say, busy arterials (external). The technology of today doesn't allow for AI modeling of functional issues - but it will soon with the advent of Lidar wall mapping.
 
We don't need AI to "objectively" define neighborhood boundaries, and perhaps this question should not be asked, given the current climate of bias.

If an appraiser can not think it through enough or be area faimilar enough to define the applicable neighborhood boundaries, they are not competent for the job. All this will mean is that lazy, incompetent, or out-of-geo area appraisers ( or tech folks outsourced in India) can plug in AI and have it spit out "objective " boundaries, which may or may not be relevant.
All questions should be asked - ALL the time. Only a fool says to not ask the question, pretending it will go away if we just don't pay attention to it.

The fact that you and I might choose a different set of neighborhood boundaries doesn't mean one of us is lazy or incompetent - it means it's a subjective analysis.

FTR - the comment was not about neighborhood boundaries. It was about the inevitable 'model creep' (if you want to call it that).
 
When it came to appraising....
One of the things I was most happy about was it required only elementary school level math....
Now folks want appraisers to be mind and/or heart readers.... :)
 
For me, its the reconciliation part that sets us apart from the AI modeling. Folks will be able to model anything that can be quantified. Quantify bath count - and someone will be able to model market behavior based on the data gathered. Not so much with reconciliation, though. Point values truly do exist with models - in fact that's the whole point - estimate a point value and then build confidence intervals around that point value. IRL, point values don't exist - at least WRT real property appraisal (IMO). That's where the art comes in - contract price is within the adjusted range, has a reasonable exposure time, no atypical terms, etc. Reconcile to the contract price. The model can't do that - it might give a point value $1.3k below the contract price and now the loan is dead - even though the contract price is - objectively speaking - a supportable opinion of value.
 
Properties that are directly adjacent to each other can have different market areas.
The whole construct of "neighborhood" is a canard of the worst order. What do buyers start with? Well, if they have any sense, they will start with looking for something they can afford and qualify for. That's number one. That, in turn, determines how big, how old, and where the area lays. As pointed out, that isn't some monolithic area. The buyer is looking in a specific range completely divorced from a coherent "neighborhood."

A buyer may focus upon a single town, a single part of a town, and consider proximity to work above all. Some buyers want outside of a city limit, others want inside a city limit. Some are looking to get a condo and not have to mow their own lawn, etc. But do they have to have that specific condo? Probably not.

To me, proximity is the least important aspect of comparison. One should focus upon the dollar amount - something that is the very antithesis of what we've been told where price isn't to be factored in. Well, buyers are forced by their economics to focus on cost. And many a buyer rejected a home they like better because it was too far above their budget. Once we've found a price range, then we can dissect the area that the buyers want to live, and within that context determine the factors that are driving prices. Condition. No one wants to have to deal with a fixer upper unless you are simply someone with that bend or you are a flipper. Age and condition go hand in hand. Next you have to deal with size. Bigger is more expensive. Some buyers are looking for ordinary. Some have large families. Again, these different demographics cannot be pigeon-holed into one area, one "neighborhood".

The gist is that these are imprecise hence very subjective determinations and as appraisers we are second-guessing the mythical "typical" buyer. No one really knows. But no computer program, call it "AI or not", provides real heuristic judgments we make every day. Experience counts.
 
If the AVMs mid-point value is only under by $1,300, I assume the waiver will hit. I don't know if it is an over-under decision, I would suspect not.

I think the most value we have that can't be replicated is contacting market participants and asking them questions that help us build our understanding of the market.
 
The whole construct of "neighborhood" is a canard of the worst order. What do buyers start with? Well, if they have any sense, they will start with looking for something they can afford and qualify for. That's number one. That, in turn, determines how big, how old, and where the area lays. As pointed out, that isn't some monolithic area. The buyer is looking in a specific range completely divorced from a coherent "neighborhood."

A buyer may focus upon a single town, a single part of a town, and consider proximity to work above all. Some buyers want outside of a city limit, others want inside a city limit. Some are looking to get a condo and not have to mow their own lawn, etc. But do they have to have that specific condo? Probably not.

To me, proximity is the least important aspect of comparison. One should focus upon the dollar amount - something that is the very antithesis of what we've been told where price isn't to be factored in. Well, buyers are forced by their economics to focus on cost. And many a buyer rejected a home they like better because it was too far above their budget. Once we've found a price range, then we can dissect the area that the buyers want to live, and within that context determine the factors that are driving prices. Condition. No one wants to have to deal with a fixer upper unless you are simply someone with that bend or you are a flipper. Age and condition go hand in hand. Next you have to deal with size. Bigger is more expensive. Some buyers are looking for ordinary. Some have large families. Again, these different demographics cannot be pigeon-holed into one area, one "neighborhood".

The gist is that these are imprecise hence very subjective determinations and as appraisers we are second-guessing the mythical "typical" buyer. No one really knows. But no computer program, call it "AI or not", provides real heuristic judgments we make every day. Experience counts.
Don't disagree at all - always thought it was counterintuitive that appraisers couldn't distill comps using price as an element of comparison - and yet that's exactly what the market does. That said, seems to me it would be even easier to build a model based off price point than off geographic boundaries, no?
 
If the AVMs mid-point value is only under by $1,300, I assume the waiver will hit. I don't know if it is an over-under decision, I would suspect not.

I think the most value we have that can't be replicated is contacting market participants and asking them questions that help us build our understanding of the market.
It was an example. I imagine you're correct in that, if the estimated value falls within a particular confidence interval, then they'll receive value acceptance. Which just confirms the silliness of having appraisers estimate point values over the past forever.
 
Which just confirms the silliness of having appraisers estimate point values over the past forever.
Banks focus on such point values by regulation, so it will be hard to break that spell. But we all know that the value varies. And within data points we can make a rough estimate of the range of adjusted values or do a standard deviation and offer a Point Value plus or minus X%...if the lenders would allow it.
 
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