Appraisal Volume

[Essexfenwick]

This is what baffles me and I am convinced that such cash sales are propping up the market

Who wants a 7.3 percent mortgage (no points)?

 

[Terrel L. Shields]

Who wants a 7.3 percent mortgage (no points)?

That would have been a bargain when I built my house. I paid 11% plus on construction loan and over 10% for the permanent financing. I refi'd about 3 times and lowered it to just below 7% as my final few years played out. I've had a farm loan that was 5%, but 7% plus minus was the cheapest money I borrowed on home loan.

 

[Overimprovement]

Who wants a 7.3 percent mortgage (no points)?

No one may want that, but even fewer have the cash set aside to pay cash, so when the need (not want) to move or upsize or downsize materializes, only then does the mortgage broker get a call.

The other issue at play is prices keep increasing, so on top of the payments being a lot more, folks are getting less house. It is a wicked two-edged sword.

I personally plan on staying put til I retire from full time work (which stopped being appraising last year), selling and reaping the price increases since we bought in 2020 (will about be empty nesters by then anyway), and doing the travel thing.

 

[ZZGAMAZZ]

2024 was the lowest volume home sales year since 1996.

32 percent of sales are cash financed. Highest since 2014.

There are like zero refi’s

Waivers are taking a huge chunk of the remaining crumbs


The appraisal volume is a basket case.

Thanks for the hard data. I appreciate that. I'm wondering if perchance a database exists that documents the volume of residential appraisals, possibly sorted by purchase, refi, legal, etc.

 

[ZZGAMAZZ]

This is what baffles me and I am convinced that such cash sales are propping up the market

Possibly a silly question, but in your opinion how does that factor if true impact/describe/define/predict residential markets (obviously location-specific but just in general). Thanks as always.

 

[ZZGAMAZZ]

No one may want that, but even fewer have the cash set aside to pay cash, so when the need (not want) to move or upsize or downsize materializes, only then does the mortgage broker get a call.

The other issue at play is prices keep increasing, so on top of the payments being a lot more, folks are getting less house. It is a wicked two-edged sword.

I personally plan on staying put til I retire from full time work (which stopped being appraising last year), selling and reaping the price increases since we bought in 2020 (will about be empty nesters by then anyway), and doing the travel thing.

Very subjective question, but....do you think you'll miss working? [I ask because I semi-retired from a different industry and went back to full-time appraising although now that the volume mysteriously declined by about 80% in the past 2 months, I get up, go to the gym, get dressed....and then sit in my recliner the next 10 hours waiting for bedtime...3 milies from the Pacific Ocean never having seen the sand or the sea for like 20 years, because work got in the way...]

 

[Overimprovement]

Very subjective question, but....do you think you'll miss working? [I ask because I semi-retired from a different industry and went back to full-time appraising although now that the volume mysteriously declined by about 80% in the past 2 months, I get up, go to the gym, get dressed....and then sit in my recliner the next 10 hours waiting for bedtime...3 milies from the Pacific Ocean never having seen the sand or the sea for like 20 years, because work got in the way...]

If I didn't have to work, I wouldn't. I have so many likes and hobbies, I could easily fill the next few years. I stay up late every night because I am doing one of them. My latest stupid hobby is AM radio DXing, which is 'collecting' AM radio stations. For those not in the know, AM propagates many miles at night, I have personally logged 3 stations over 1000 miles away with a cheap handheld radio inside, with no exterior antenna. I got a loop antenna and have now run a cable into the house, and have what's called an SDR hooked up to my laptop. I can usually log at least 100 stations on a good night. I have 8 alone on one frequency. It can be pretty addicting. But once the equipment is bought, it is 100% free.

Of course travel is my biggest vice, which requires...money. Lots of it. So it's off to work to I go on Monday.

 

[Terrel L. Shields]

but in your opinion how does that factor if true impact/describe/define/predict residential markets

It is keeping the prices from falling. If one-third the houses are cash purchases, then unlike 2006 where much of the housing financed was underwater and secondary market, prices are not as likely to fall. But if they do not fall, a whole lot of people are unable to make a mortgage payment, especially at 7% plus rates although historically 6-7% wasn't all that 'high'. If rates fall to 3% again, then it will only drive prices even higher. And higher prices means a new cycle of people being able to sell out and arbitrage the profit from the cheap housing they bought 5-10 year ago...thus creating even more "cash" heavy consumers.

 

[Joe Flacco]

Making changes for 2025!

 

[LesPaul59]

If I didn't have to work, I wouldn't. I have so many likes and hobbies, I could easily fill the next few years. I stay up late every night because I am doing one of them. My latest stupid hobby is AM radio DXing, which is 'collecting' AM radio stations. For those not in the know, AM propagates many miles at night, I have personally logged 3 stations over 1000 miles away with a cheap handheld radio inside, with no exterior antenna. I got a loop antenna and have now run a cable into the house, and have what's called an SDR hooked up to my laptop. I can usually log at least 100 stations on a good night. I have 8 alone on one frequency. It can be pretty addicting. But once the equipment is bought, it is 100% free.

Of course travel is my biggest vice, which requires...money. Lots of it. So it's off to work to I go on Monday.

Do you ever mess around with shortwave radio?