Appraisal Volume

[soucat]

Crickets in So Cal.

 

[J Grant]

Waivers are due to expand for loans over 97% LTV starting in 01/2025

The only things slowing the rollout of WAivers is that some properties or borrowers do not qualify for them, and the borrowers who want to retain the appraisal contingency clause in their sales contract.

-and perhaps some lenders have more stringent investors who want an appraisal idk -

But clearly this expansion will further erode the order volume

 

[Essexfenwick]

3 sales… direct clients not AMCs
3 estates
1 trust ordering 3 lot appraisals
2 local bank commercial division residence value
From now till thanksgiving for 2 appraisers

 

[Alsie35]

Crickets in So Cal.

Bummer. Between 80% of CA appraisers being in SoCal, the plethora of existing sub-3% mortgages discouraging moving, uber-high costs/regulations of building and high home prices (let's not even mention the traffic), I can understand.

If you want to live in an appraising Mecca in CA, move to Solano County. If you develop a good system, and get geographically competent, you can expand your practice to neighboring Sacramento, Yolo and Napa Counties. You'll do much better than you ever did in SoCal and be much, much happier.

Call me "been there, done that" (and so well as a matter of fact that we were able to escape back to TX and take the business with us). I suspect the local realtors still miss us up there. There's room - few appraisers, booming, growing area. That's your CA "Tip for the Day". Solano County.

 

[ZZGAMAZZ]

I have been as busy as ever. I do think there was a general slowdown. The appraiser who kept working are those that did what they agreed to do. That is... delivered reports that rarely or never needed revision and delivered them on time.

Serious question regarding AMC-issued assignment: Do you think that an appraiser's tendency to meet or exceed client/contract expectations affect the volume of assignments?

 

[ZZGAMAZZ]

AMC work decreased by 90% suddenly about 9 days ago here in 4 SoCal counties where i labor sway..

Absence of AMC assignments after being busy busy busy for several years has continued, with about 2 assignments in two months. The wolf is knocking at the door....although fortunately I'm focusing on R.E. sales with two recent llistings and several in the pipeline...

 

[Non Sequitur]

I'm guessing you won't see that happen. Mechanisms are in place to prevent most from knowing what is going on in the shadows. If you buy loans cheap enough, very attractive returns can be harvested even from deep principal discounts in restructuring. There was a businessman/investor around here who purchased a large portfolio of farm loans from North Dakota banks at deep discounts, restructured them individually, and realized returns probably 3 times what were readily available elsewhere.

GSEs will sell their delinquent loans, buyers will have to offer restructuring, and some (Blackrock, etc) might foreclose and keep them as rentals. Then, borrowers who repay their loans as agreed will subsidize those losses through higher loan fees paid to the GSEs. This is the new way of US Government. In the 90s, we had welfare and could see what it cost us. Then, we "reformed" welfare and now have tax credits that cannot be discovered because IRS records are "confidential" (unless you are Trump). Now, we will not see foreclosures...political cronies and protectees will be approved to profit from buying delinquent mortgages while the rest of us foot the bill without a line item charge ever being seen or known. This system in the shadows will not generate the attention that "student loan forgiveness" does, so will go largely unchallenged by taxpayers.

Yet another reason to abolish the GSEs and let the private sector fund mortgages.

"Fannie Mae's sales of non-performing loans, which are part of the Federal Housing Finance Agency's (FHFA) Conservatorship Scorecard, are intended to reduce the number of deeply delinquent loans that Fannie Mae owns, to help stabilize neighborhoods and to help meet the portfolio reduction targets required under the Senior Preferred Stock Purchase Agreement with the United States Treasury.

FHFA has enhanced guidelines over time for these sales to encourage broad buyer participation and provide safeguards for borrowers. These guidelines require the buyers of non-performing loans to offer loan modifications to borrowers and provide foreclosure alternatives whenever possible. If foreclosure cannot be prevented, property sales to owner-occupants and non-profit agencies must be prioritized.

Fannie Mae offers these loans for sale to eligible investors, nonprofits and public sector organizations. The company anticipates bringing pools of loans to the market from time to time. Fannie Mae intends to offer a mix of both larger and smaller pools that may be more attractive to nonprofits, smaller investors and minority- and women-owned businesses."

Whole Loan Sales | Fannie Mae

capitalmarkets.fanniemae.com

100% correct and an accurate breakdown on the state of the REO side right now.

And the behind the scenes manipulation of delinquencies and foreclosures is happening on the banking side too. Extend and pretend is the marching orders on the portfolio side of banking. I've spoken to more than a few community bank asset managers, about the only time they pursue a foreclosure is when the borrower disappears. Mods are the name of the game, and I have personally completed drive by assignments on borrowers who are on their 3rd and 4th modification agreements.

I'm hopeful the new administration will finish what they started and privatize the GSEs, and I hope some common sense returns to banking regulations. Suppressing REO activity through policy is one of the reasons the real estate market will not correct, and that hurts the economy in the long run. The market can't properly function without those checks in place.

 

[sputnam]

Serious question regarding AMC-issued assignment: Do you think that an appraiser's tendency to meet or exceed client/contract expectations affect the volume of assignments?

I think that AMCs have Lender Clients who have Borrower Customers who often have deadlines. If the appraiser regularly delivers appraisal reports later than promised... or frequently delivers reports that require revision... many of the people who order appraisals will find another appraiser to do the work. That's not a slowdown in the industry. It's a slowdown for the individual appraiser. And individual appraisers are who post in forums.

 

[Essexfenwick]

I think that AMCs have Lender Clients who have Borrower Customers who often have deadlines. If the appraiser regularly delivers appraisal reports later than promised... or frequently delivers reports that require revision... many of the people who order appraisals will find another appraiser to do the work. That's not a slowdown in the industry. It's a slowdown for the individual appraiser. And individual appraisers are who post in forums.

2024 was the lowest volume home sales year since 1996.

32 percent of sales are cash financed. Highest since 2014.

There are like zero refi’s

Waivers are taking a huge chunk of the remaining crumbs


The appraisal volume is a basket case.

 

[Terrel L. Shields]

32 percent of sales are cash financed. Highest since 2014.

This is what baffles me and I am convinced that such cash sales are propping up the market