Bringing this back to topic:
1) Talked to a staff appraiser of a large bank today (had to talk about a mixed use property). Asked about the new form, and he said there is only one small company that has a complete form. The 3 big ones (ACI, Total, Bradford) don’t have anything workable yet. And he doubts they will be ready in time for much work.
No, it is NOT that bad. I am sure Alamode will follow their published plan and meet deadlines.
He frankly expects there to be a delay. The banks are just not ready to process this stuff.
That's a different story. I don't know the situation with banks, but have done plenty of work for them. And, they are not fast movers. Lots of software, lots of dependencies all over the US and the World. Most are a nightmare of bureacracy.
He also said he expects (as I do) these software companies at some point will go broke.
MISMO standard forms have to be addressed. You have to fit your report into MISMO. That's the central role of these software companies. That is there bread and butter. MISMO will keep changing. Who feeds MISMO will change ... and it will likely involve a lot of AI, MARS Regression, Prolog - because appraisal is political. You have to explain "Why?" for something really complex (in many cases) -
in understandable language.
As appraisers leave, there will be less buyers.
Well, it is not exactly about "appraisers" leaving. The functionality will always be there. It is a question of who or what will be doing the appraisals.
I predict that within the next 5-30 years, people will manage more detailed and accurate inspections, while others will manage AI, with AI handling the grunt work of valuation.
The cost of doing this entire revision has to be astronomical.
I've come across a certain number (not a lot) of really retarded appraisers who couldn't even do traditional appraisal. Most average residential appraisers have questionable futures in the field. Some of the better ones can learn and adapt. But, I don't have a good grasp on the numbers or the potential out of the current flock of residential appraisers.
And he stated the bugs are going to be on both ends of the network.
2) As to the old UAD. The change was a pain. It took at least an extra 30 minutes initially to sift through all nonsense. Thankfully, alamode had the UAD check. The only real complaint I had with the UAD is the inability to structure the report in a way that made sense because at the time I was doing lots of waterfront properties. I got so much push back from underwriters while doing waterfront when I didn’t make acreage adjustments; instead I made frontage adjustments on a different line. The other part was “living” with the ratings. I struggled for awhile deciding whether to rate properties a certain way since it wasn’t always cut and dry. And by the way appraisers still haven’t figured out the differences in quality ratings. I see properties marked Q3 and they are Q4. They see a Q3 and they mark it Q2. They have no idea. And it is clear they haven’t ever worked in an upscale area. Initially I think the ratings scenario added 15 to 30 minutes per report. Now I can whip through it pretty quickly. WHAT we are seeing now is the UAD on steroids. It will make the old UAD look like a picnic. I watched a video on Bradfords Nighthawk, and the grids are expandable to 140 spaces (did I hear that right)? Can’t imagine.
You should always determine the best approach for you to conduct the appraisal. Do your own with Excel, Word, and whatever other tools you think work best. Then transfer your work to the required forms as necessary. If you can't transfer it all, then put those parts in the Addenda. That has always been my strategy.
However, what has always been problematic is the enormous pressure to deliver the report within the promised N days. That can drive me nuts, I simply don't have the time to complete my protocols for inspection, floor plans, photography, MARS analysis, RCA completion, and then review everything for errors after umpteen modifications ... and so out it goes for better or worse, because in those cases, you never hear back. But maybe you review your own work somewhere down the road and go into shock because of the sometimes scrambled language and mispelled words that shout out at you. All you need is a little distance from your report, and you magically see all the imperfections. Haste makes waste.
The USPAP and guidelines we have now, are very imperfect. The system is full of inertia. But it will improve, very slowly.
3) So the bottom line is: I think (IMHO) implementation by the end of 2026 may well be a pipe dream.
I don't think so.
In fact the staff appraiser I talked to said he can’t imagine it working that soon; maybe 2027.
I could see a possible delay of one quarter. If Fannie Mae makes changes to UAD 3.6, different story.
Too many hiccups along the way. Second, if you can get out (close to retirement or have another occupation) think hard about doing it. All my dues come up in November, so I have to make a choice. I am about 50/50. If I can use the old form for another year…., but maybe I pull the plug sooner and just figure out something else to do with my time. Will happen at some point. Why not now? I don’t need the money. It’s just a way to keep my brain active and get out and about. Maybe (God forbid) I go and reup my real estate license. Unfortunately, when I moved to a different location I left a lot of private work on the table. Trying to rebuild the private work end of the business is more than I want to hassle with at 70.
Honestly, that is the future. You think this is bad? Just wait.
If I were you, just learn UAD 3.6. "Required usage" will likely be delayed, given all the problems appraisers are having with it. I wouldn't be too worried. Just realize, that of course it will be more work, and you need to charge more. You should be happy.
