Lot size adjustments

[RCA]

Any big data solution including MARS sucks for this. The main issues with those methods is that changes in different locations in the same neighborhood are not the same. And what the adjustments were two years ago is different from what it is today. It's really complicated.

You are controlling the adjustments then, not the data. My, my. You are breaking the rules. And no, it doesn't suck.

The problem is that overfitting data is easy and that is EXACTLY what most appraisers do. They get adjustments that work for the comps - but not the subject. Your method has to force generalization into the process of creating adjustments - to make it robust at prediction.

I hate to say this, but most appraisers are VERY backward. And mostly because they won't take the time and put forth the effort to learn MARS.

And of course, I am wasting my time telling this audience.

Matched pairs sucks not only because it sucks, but because most of the appraisers on this forum don't even understand how to use it. ... "Well there are too many variables to use anything else but matched pair analysis." --- When indeed "too many variables" is poison for matched pairs analysis.

Yea. I know. That's what the Appraisal Institute teaches. Well, that's another story.

Just for your info.

 

[Joe Flacco]

You are controlling the adjustments then, not the data. My, my. You are breaking the rules. And no, it doesn't suck.

The problem is that overfitting data is easy and that is EXACTLY what most appraisers do. They get adjustments that work for the comps - but not the subject. Your method has to force generalization into the process of creating adjustments - to make it robust at prediction.

I hate to say this, but most appraisers are VERY backward. And mostly because they won't take the time and put forth the effort to learn MARS.

And of course, I am wasting my time telling this audience.

Matched pairs sucks not only because it sucks, but because most of the appraisers on this forum don't even understand how to use it. ... "Well there are too many variables to use anything else but matched pair analysis." --- When indeed "too many variables" is poison for matched pairs analysis.

Yea. I know. That's what the Appraisal Institute teaches. Well, that's another story.

Just for your info.

Yes, MARS ****ing sucks. Maybe decent for cookie cutter townhouses in a huge PUD.

 

[RCA]

Yes, MARS ****ing sucks. Maybe decent for cookie cutter townhouses in a huge PUD.

You haven't used MARS have you? You are in Maryland, densely populated - and it should work just fine there.

If you have, show me one of your models and share the parameters you used to run Earth. Of course, then, you know R as well.

I am not saying you can't do some basic code, but I highly doubt you have any competence using it.

I use MARS for every kind of community. From rich areas like Atherton and Hillsborough to vacation areas along the coast with very infrequent sales.

The reason I use it is because I discovered at a very early stage in my appraisal career that it is much better than traditional methods -- which are largely guesswork -- and can be proven so, and everybody with intelligence knows that already.

 

[RCA]

Early in my career, after using MARS (back then it was Salford Systems MARS) for a couple of years, I said on this forum that if I audited other appraisers using MARS, it would be a turkey shoot. I would destroy them, even the best. The problem I find is the realization that if I did get start doing appraisal review, people would complain for sure: "They can't do that! They were not taught that! It isn't fair to accuse them of not knowing how to do their job when the Appraisal Institute and others never taught them!" And yes, they would be correct. And I am not willing to step down to your level of ignorance.

Your innocence is ignorance. You don't want to lose that.

 

[RCA]

And by the way, all adjusted sales prices in the Sales Grid should be equal. In case you didn't know. But don't try to do it, if you don't know MARS and RCA methodology.

 

[Fernando]

Bert doesn't need to try. He's funny.

 

[Fernando]

You haven't used MARS have you? You are in Maryland, densely populated - and it should work just fine there.

If you have, show me one of your models and share the parameters you used to run Earth. Of course, then, you know R as well.

I am not saying you can't do some basic code, but I highly doubt you have any competence using it.

I use MARS for every kind of community. From rich areas like Atherton and Hillsborough to vacation areas along the coast with very infrequent sales.

The reason I use it is because I discovered at a very early stage in my appraisal career that it is much better than traditional methods -- which are largely guesswork -- and can be proven so, and everybody with intelligence knows that already.

The problems with MARS for typical appraisers are needing larger datasets to avoid overfitting, not as straightforward and easy to explain in reports, and less familiar to courts, lenders, and regulators. GSE appraisers need to use appraisal methods accepted and defensible in professional practice so most readers will understand the appraisal report.

 

[ZZGAMAZZ]

Nope.

View attachment 105073

On the one I delivered yesterday, I looked at these and adjusted -$300k for 1 acre lot vs half acre lot.

If possible please walk through the calculations, especially because they are improved properties. Also, all columns might not be dislayed here, bur the basis $/sqft of each isn't displayed.

 

[ZZGAMAZZ]

And by the way, all adjusted sales prices in the Sales Grid should be equal. In case you didn't know. But don't try to do it, if you don't know MARS and RCA methodology.

Lemme dumb it down for my personal benefit: if the adjusted values of all comps in the SCA are identical, would Reconciliation need to be addressed, or any specific comparable property. or any specific factor, prioritized ["weighted'} above others?

 

[ZZGAMAZZ]

The problems with MARS for typical appraisers are needing larger datasets to avoid overfitting, not as straightforward and easy to explain in reports, and less familiar to courts, lenders, and regulators. GSE appraisers need to use appraisal methods accepted and defensible in professional practice so most readers will understand the appraisal report.

This doesn't sound like Fernando IMO. If you live in the Bay area, did you hear about the pods?