Free UAD 3.6 Examples

[NC Appraising]

Meanwhile residential appraiser numbers continue to tank while the GSE promote PDCs and 3.6 (numbers posted in a FB group):

View attachment 106851

The question is why?

Currently, the decline is due to the lack of work:
-decreased demand for mortgages. Appraisers leaving due to the lack of work.
-older appraisers retiring
-increased usage of avms and hybrids. Per the latest numbers by the AMI, 1 in 4 gse loans used a waiver. That doesn't account for hybrids, which are being mostly done by large firms or by a selected few.
-AMC staff appraisers and large appraisal firms taking a larger foot hold in the market.

Couple the above with the UAD 3.6 becoming mandatory later this year, its going to be a bleak.

The question is, will they return when the mortgage demand picks up in 2-4 years. Most likely not. The UAD 3.6 will probably keep most from coming back and the overall declining of the appraisal profession.

Either way you look at it, there are multiple issues that needs to be addressed. None are in the favor of the IFA appraisers.

As I said before, we are just an interim use for the next 5-10 years. Based on the above factors and due to the decreased number of appraisers:

-the gses will increase the levels of waivers.
-the large firms will perform more hybrids
-the large firms will incorporate more AI and push button software to allow for more appraisals to be done per day, per appraiser.

The above will allow for more of a equilibrium in the valuation side.

 

[Non Sequitur]

The question is, will they return when the mortgage demand picks up in 2-4 years. Most likely not.

Even if they want too they would have to start from scratch, which is ridiculous. While TAF's Harmonization Tak Force is championing alternate experience, any former appraiser who walked away is out of luck if they want to jump back in.

As I said before, we are just an interim use for the next 5-10 years. Based on the above factors and due to the decreased number of appraisers:

-the gses will increase the levels of waivers.
-the large firms will perform more hybrids
-the large firms will incorporate more AI and push button software to allow for more appraisals to be done per day, per appraiser.

The above will allow for more of a equilibrium in the valuation side.

I agree.

 

[NC Appraising]

Even if they want too they would have to start from scratch, which is ridiculous. While TAF's Harmonization Tak Force is championing alternate experience, any former appraiser who walked away is out of luck if they want to jump back in.


I agree.

The only caveat is if the lowering of the barrier to entry works...

They get a bunch of newbie appraisers with no experience and only a high school education that will work for 40k a year and produce 10 push button appraisals a day.

If the large firms and AMCs win at this, it is only a short term fix. I still believe we have only 10 years left.

Push button appraisers cannot compete with waivers or avms with a PCR.

 

[Surf Cat]

Currently, the decline is due to the lack of work:
-decreased demand for mortgages. Appraisers leaving due to the lack of work.
-older appraisers retiring
-increased usage of avms and hybrids. Per the latest numbers by the AMI, 1 in 4 gse loans used a waiver.

You left out the A, number one reason.... compensation. The pay from AMC's is pathetic.

 

[NC Appraising]

You left out the A, number one reason.... compensation. The pay from AMC's is pathetic.

I thought about that and left it out.

For some, I agree. But for most....

They complain about the fees, but most are secretly working for AMCs for cheap? How many of the large AMCs have went out of business? None. Someone is keeping them in business...all while mortgage demand is at historical lows.

Lastly, the newbies will not know any better.....

 

[Tom4value]

You can hijack it. Don't mind. It just gets bump back to the top.

I agree with you. I was really surprised we lasted this long. I think most behind closed doors will agree that we have around 10 years left.

In my area, most of all of the local hvac, electrical and plumbing companies are being purchased by private equity firms.

Most do not even realize it...they think they are supporting a local business.

I hope you are right about the “10 years left”. I figure I have 5-7 years, tops, before I quit and chase butterflies until my dirt nap.

Back to the GSEs mining our appraisals, I think it will be a disaster for the GSEs and therefore, the mortgage industry. Mining raw data is one thing. Using raw data to build their automation software can be controlled. However, appraisals are mainly opinions based on that raw data. Mining opinions to run their automation is a recipe for disaster; “garbage in/garbage out” on a grand scale.

 

[Essexfenwick]

I hope you are right about the “10 years left”. I figure I have 5-7 years, tops, before I quit and chase butterflies until my dirt nap.

Back to the GSEs mining our appraisals, I think it will be a disaster for the GSEs and therefore, the mortgage industry. Mining raw data is one thing. Using raw data to build their automation software can be controlled. However, appraisals are mainly opinions based on that raw data. Mining opinions to run their automation is a recipe for disaster; “garbage in/garbage out” on a grand scale.

Way faster
2027 will be the end of anything resembling the current GSE appraisal work.

 

[Tom4value]

Way faster
2027 will be the end of anything resembling the current GSE appraisal work.

May be in the market for a butterfly net sooner, then! LOL

 

[Surf Cat]

There's no way that an active, practicing appraiser was in on the design of this format. Splitting up the sales comparison grid amongst three pages it's just asinine. No net and gross adjustment indicators easily showing which competitive sale is least comparable...... the people working on this must have been booking travels to Epstein Island and weren't focused.

 

[Tom D]

You are about to enter the outer limits
they control the vertical
they control the horizontal
do not touch your keyboard

Pretty much like reading about an alien invasion, but in this case we do lose.