How is Business and your anticipation for the future?

[alebrewer]

There are a lot of troubling statistics with retirement savings. If you follow Dave Ramsey, you may be a bit starry eyed. I used one of the vendor's he recommends and have averaged slightly less the 5% year over year average for the last 25 years. 2010-2020 ruined my averages. A lot of people are recommending buying the S&P 500 indexes but Nvidia, Apple, Alphabet (Class A & C), Microsoft, Amazon, Broadcom, Meta Platforms, Tesla, Eli Lilly, and Berkshire Hathaway make up 38% of that mix so there is a lot of tech pushing that index. The other issue is growth. In the 90's, companies waited 5-7 years to go private, now it's more like 14-years. Most of the growth is occurring on the private equity side.

I'd like to think I'm in a fairly good position, but who knows. 20 years is a pretty long horizon given the recent rate of change in world happenings. Rohr just posted an article about municipal disregard for private property rights. It's not that difficult to imagine a world where the proletariat just starts taking - and the courts are impotent to stop it. Savings won't make a bit of difference in that scenario - other than possibly purchasing munitions for defense.

 

[WestMichiganCG]

I'd like to think I'm in a fairly good position, but who knows. 20 years is a pretty long horizon given the recent rate of change in world happenings. Rohr just posted an article about municipal disregard for private property rights. It's not that difficult to imagine a world where the proletariat just starts taking - and the courts are impotent to stop it. Savings won't make a bit of difference in that scenario - other than possibly purchasing munitions for defense.

I've had that thought. I can see a dystopia but not to the point where I'm buying munitions. I think I'd leave the States at that point. Elon can see a future where all the wealth is made and shared with everyone. All I've ever seen is trickle up economics. This idea that you feed enough oats to the horse, some will pass through to feed the sparrows doesn't seem to be working.

 

[alebrewer]

I've had that thought. I can see a dystopia but not to the point where I'm buying munitions. I think I'd leave the States at that point. Elon can see a future where all the wealth is made and shared with everyone. All I've ever seen is trickle up economics. This idea that you feed enough oats to the horse, some will pass through to feed the sparrows doesn't seem to be working.

There are just too many unknowns. RE the 'trickle up' idea, I don't think you'll find much support for that observation (other than short term demand growth). Of course, there's not a lot of evidence that trickle down economics work well either. There is a plethora of evidence, however, that market oriented economic systems fare MUCH better than do centrally planned systems over the long term.

 

[WestMichiganCG]

There are just too many unknowns. RE the 'trickle up' idea, I don't think you'll find much support for that observation (other than short term demand growth). Of course, there's not a lot of evidence that trickle down economics work well either. There is a plethora of evidence, however, that market oriented economic systems fare MUCH better than do centrally planned systems over the long term.

The trickle up economic theory is that the wealth is slowly accumulating in the hands of the few. There are a bunch of graphs showing this happening and the Reagan Era was the impetus.

 

[J Grant]

Maybe they don't have to be licensed in Florida? I'm sure I could have found someone that cheap as well. Not sure how using Hill & Billy's Plumbing would have worked, though.

They are licensed and all the licensed firms charge similar rates.
$125 an hour is typical for a firm here that employs several or more licensed plumbers. If the plumber splits that with the firm the plumber is making a good living but not getting wealthy

 

[alebrewer]

The trickle up economic theory is that the wealth is slowly accumulating in the hands of the few. There are a bunch of graphs showing this happening and the Reagan Era was the impetus.

Not sure how you're defining 'trickle up' economics (as that's not a formal system), but the typical view of that system is that purchasing power is expanded for the 'many' - through direct transfers, progressive tax structures, mandatory minimum wages, etc.). And again, most of the data associated with that structure would indicate that, yes - there is an increase in short term demand (and growth), but not sustained growth. Somebody's gotta pay for the grift...

 

[alebrewer]

They are licensed and all the licensed firms charge similar rates.
$125 an hour is typical for a firm here that employs several or more licensed plumbers. If the plumber splits that with the firm the plumber is making a good living but not getting wealthy

Your math isn't mathing.

 

[J Grant]

Your math isn't mathing.

It's not my math. It is the reality of what plumbers charge here.

 

[chad hampton]

I paid a plumber $300 to do about 30 minutes worth of irrigation work. I didn’t have the time or the interest in making three trips to Home Depot and by the time I bought the tools that I would need it was probably a better deal just paying them. I can’t imagine a profession like that not charging a minimum of fee of $200 just to show up at your house.

 

[WestMichiganCG]

Not sure how you're defining 'trickle up' economics (as that's not a formal system), but the typical view of that system is that purchasing power is expanded for the 'many' - through direct transfers, progressive tax structures, mandatory minimum wages, etc.). And again, most of the data associated with that structure would indicate that, yes - there is an increase in short term demand (and growth), but not sustained growth. Somebody's gotta pay for the grift...