One woman's opinion.....and I agree

[Bob Ipock]

 

[Elliott]

She lost me after the third 'yu-know.' So I asked Perplexity to graph Case-Shiller Index with Houdehold Income, and here's the graph. Then asked it for a R2. Sky isn't falling, but it is lower. I have faith in the 'market' figuring it out. I had Wheaties for breakfast. I have a daughter who is always sending me listings of McMansions on acreage (so she can take care of the 'old man') and they are reasonably priced at about $300/SF. Maybe 4 or 5 of gendered fluid GenZers will combine their incomes and buy them.



"For the 50‑year period 1976–2025, the R² between the rebased Case‑Shiller index and median household income is about 0.896."

 

[Joe Flacco]

I completely disagree.

 

[Bob Ipock]

Housing prices continue to increase yet fewer people can afford to buy. We are in a war that may not end soon, oil is back up to $100 a barrel, we have a lunatic in the White House, we have pissed off nearly every country in the world, tariffs are up and down minute by minute, new home builders are making little if any profit. Seeing too many new sub-divisions with nothing but white pipes sticking out of the ground. Interest rates likely to go up but not down. The housing market has declined in listings and sales. Things are not looking great....but hey, I am no expert.

 

[OSU Beavers]

..........

 

[Joe Flacco]

If mortgage rates go to 8-10%, then that just locks in more people into their current property, not only the people with the pandemic rates.

 

[OSU Beavers]

New home builders are still offering 4.99% 30 year fixed loans.

 

[alebrewer]

New home builders are still offering 4.99% 30 year fixed loans.

problem is that they're having to buy down those rates for borrowers, which further erodes their margins.

 

[Bob Ipock]

She lost me after the third 'yu-know.' So I asked Perplexity to graph Case-Shiller Index with Houdehold Income, and here's the graph. Then asked it for a R2. Sky isn't falling, but it is lower. I have faith in the 'market' figuring it out. I had Wheaties for breakfast. I have a daughter who is always sending me listings of McMansions on acreage (so she can take care of the 'old man') and they are reasonably priced at about $300/SF. Maybe 4 or 5 of gendered fluid GenZers will combine their incomes and buy them.



"For the 50‑year period 1976–2025, the R² between the rebased Case‑Shiller index and median household income is about 0.896."

View attachment 111710

Things have vastly changed in 2026. War, highest diesel fuel prices in history, big changes in tariffs, new FED chairman signal rate increases, bond market gone crazy. Trump even crazier than last year. 2026 is nothing like 2025.

 

[Vermonter]

The housing market has declined in listings and sales. Things are not looking great....but hey, I am no expert.