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3.6 Crunch Time

I see REO work skyrocketing again. I already seen a nice uptick. The only thing that will save it is the GSEs continued use of pumping the market with loan officers appraisals/waivers. It should already be here.

You guys should get some hard money clients. They actually still do appraisals on most every loan and they actually read them, they pull them up in credit meetings when they’re discussing loans and look at it.

Pretty bad when loan sharks act more responsibly than government sponsored Enterprises.
So lemme ask you (and everyone else):

Do you think a significant percentage of the foreclosures can be attributed to those properties being grossly overvalued at the time of purchase?

Because if [gross overvaluations] isn't among the primary reasons for a subsequent loan failure then that undermines any talk about the lenders taking undue risks with their appraisal policies. OTOH, if those properties commonly were grossly overencumbered then that very much speaks to lenders operating with undue risks.
 
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We can all check the sales histories on these REOs, and can (usually) also look into any subsequent loans. We have the means to analyze the reasonableness of that prior purchase price or refi transaction relative to the market conditions in effect at that time.

There's no reason to take anyone else's opinions on the matter. We can all develop our own date-supported opinions.
 
Allegedly....

Rocket Companies (the parent company of Rocket Mortgage) reported a GAAP net income of $297 million and an adjusted net income of $422 million for the first quarter of 2026, marking its most profitable quarter in four years. This performance represents a dramatic turnaround from the $212 million net loss recorded during the same period in 2025

Again, making huge profits in one of the slowest mortgage markets in history....all while appraisal waivers increased...
 
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I think lenders should have an accurate opinion of value when making their loan decisions with regards to risk management.

I can’t say waivers give them that. I know for my private money clients, they don’t let their loan officers give their estimates of value.

But when you’re allowed to privatize gains and socialize losses, I have no doubt waivers are the preferred method. They better hope there isn’t a crash.
Their practices will be questioned if there’s a significant crash. Now no one went to prison during the last crash, the public may have an all out revolt if it doesn’t happen this time.

Everybody’s having fun when times are good. maybe the good times will roll on forever. It would be the first time in history that they do, but maybe.
 
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A foreclosure isn't a 100 % loss it's often less than 10% or in strong markets zero.

Appraisers are thinking in terms of gross loan amounts not what's recovered. Appraisals are only good the day there done but few were ever over valued by even 5% and it's the market conditions at time of the foreclosure that matters not what the property appraised for often 3 to 7 years earlier.
 
I think lenders should have an accurate opinion of value when making their loan decisions with regards to risk management.

I can’t say waivers give them that. I know for my private money clients, they don’t let their loan officers give their estimates of value.

But when you’re allowed to privatize gains and socialize losses, I have no doubt waivers are the preferred method.

Everybody’s having a good time when times are good. maybe the good times will roll on forever. It would be the first time in history that they do, but maybe.
Not responsive to the question I asked. You have the means to perform your own analyses and come to your own conclusions.

Do you think a significant percentage of the foreclosures can be attributed to those properties being grossly overvalued at the time of purchase or refi?

If you have an opinion about the prevalence of grossly overencumbered properties in the data then that's great. Respect for an opinion fairly developed.

But if you don't have an opinion of its prevalence then how can you commit to that talking point?

And before anyone asks, I don't have an opinion of the prevalence of grossly overvalued properties at the time of purchase. I don't know what the answer is. Our regional trends are still showing stable or close to stable. I know I have seen outliers all along but no moreso than what I've seen in the past. Of course, I'm not knee deep in the research of those markets every day the way SFR appraisers are so that's even more reason to not have an opinion at this point.

The current pricing stability in this region will eventually change but I wouldn't guess at to the timing.
 
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So if you know the difference then why do you keep referencing "what should be"? By definition, what should be...isn't. And never will be.
Human history consists of aspirations on the positive side of change from something bad ( what is ) to a better future (what should be or could be )

On the negative side, things degrade from what is , when things are good or stable, to bad (what shouldn't be)

The Bible describes what should be - the Ten Commandments.
 
Allegedly per AI

Rocket Mortgage (historically Quicken Loans) played a dominant, industry-defining role in getting appraisal waivers normalized by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. Rather than relying on backdoor political lobbying, Rocket achieved this by becoming the primary operational testing ground and largest institutional user of the GSEs’ automated valuation technologies. [1, 2, 3, 4]


Driving the Data Sandbox (The Tech Catalyst)
The GSEs cannot grant automated appraisal waivers without massive, standardized property data pools. Rocket Mortgage normalized this by: [1]
  • Feeding the Automated Underwriting Systems: As the nation's largest or second-largest overall retail mortgage lender over the past decade, Rocket funneled millions of digital loan applications through Fannie Mae’s Desktop Underwriter (DU) and Freddie Mac’s Loan Product Advisor (LPA). [1, 2, 3]
  • Building the Valuation Datasets: This massive volume effectively trained the GSEs' algorithms, giving them the statistical confidence needed to waive physical appraisals based on historical sales data.


    [1, 2]

2. Dominating "Inspection-Based" Hybrid Waivers
When Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac launched next-generation alternatives—such as Value Acceptance + Property Data (where a trained third-party data collector visits the home instead of a licensed appraiser)—Rocket aggressively normalized the product. [1, 2, 3, 4]
  • 40%+ Market Share: Industry delivery data shows Rocket Mortgage capturing over 40% of the entire national market share for inspection-based hybrid waivers. [1]
  • Driving Record GSE Numbers: Rocket’s systemic integration of these programs pushed combined GSE waiver utilization to historic monthly highs, establishing proof of concept for the rest of the industry. [1, 2]

3. Forcing Broad Policy Shifts
Because Rocket proved that non-appraisal valuation methods significantly dropped loan cycle times and closing costs without increasing collateral defaults, the federal government formalized and expanded the programs. [1, 2, 3, 4]
Following Rocket’s successful pilot frameworks, the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) codified permanent programmatic expansions: [1]
  • LTV Threshold Hikes: The standard appraisal waiver limit on purchase loans was raised from an 80% Loan-to-Value (LTV) cap to 90% LTV.
  • Hybrid Limits to 97%: Inspection-based hybrid waivers were expanded all the way up to 97% LTV, effectively opening the door for low-down-payment, first-time homebuyers to skip traditional appraisals entirely. [1, 2, 3]


If
 
So if you know the difference then why do you keep referencing "what should be"? By definition, what should be...isn't. And never will be.
That's really funny, considering that the market value opinion is based on what "should be." The MV definition states the $ amount the subject property SHOULD bring under the HC terms of sale in the MV definition.

Nothing personal -I enjoy debating with you. (most of the time )
 
I'm confident that everyone here understands that...

The market conditions which will come to pass in the next 5 years will be even tougher for fee appraisers than they are now.
What, specifically, do you foresee happening in the next 5 years that will make it so?

Overall, unfortunately, I tend to agree, which is why I warn newbies not to go into the field, which I dislike doing, as appraising used to be a terrific field, even if hard, and the upcoming years will need good appraisers more than ever.
 
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