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Adapt or Die?

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I'll agree to the extent that residential appraisal business means residential lending appraisal business.

And many (you included David) have been saying for several years that people needed to work at getting away from lending only business models. The problem was that there was too much work for most to see a reason to get out, and now many are in trouble because they relied on the lending industry for all (or nearly all) of their income.

Adapt or die? Possibly. But, instead of working hard to de-value appraisals further by "allowing" appraisers to compete with the agents, adapt should mean find better clients. Preferably, non-lending clients. It is harder now that the competition is looking, but there are still other avnues besides LOs, MBs and AMCs.

I think Mike Kennedy has posted some good links on how to get attorney work. That is one possibility. There are others if you look.
 
What follows 'fast and cheap' and 'giving clients what they want'?
I guess it would be 'always hit value' and 'don't be a problem' and
'free comp checks'. So after we get to that level, what comes next?

I don't think much will improve until it gets worse and the over supply of
appraisers ends. I don't think lifting our skirts will improve our reputation.
 
Adapt or die? Possibly. But, instead of working hard to de-value appraisals further by "allowing" appraisers to compete with the agents, adapt should mean find better clients. Preferably, non-lending clients. It is harder now that the competition is looking, but there are still other avnues besides LOs, MBs and AMCs.

It's may be harder than in years past, but it is certainly possible to pick up clients in the current market, even with "competition." As with any business, one has to have the skills that are geared toward the client, though. For example, if one wants to break into the legal segment, form-filling skills that are well suited to residential-lending clients will not suffice.
 
Sandy -

Read Post #13 by Hatch. And read the follow-up posts that address # 13. The sentiment expressed in those comments reflects the thinking of some individuals who have been in the business long enough to actually know what they are talking about.

I'm curious, how does you Supervisor feel about the business? Personally, I don't have enough business to support a trainee. Quite frankly, I wonder how others manage to do so.

You live in Florida, same as I do. Our state no longer issues the Licensed category license. The AA/21-hour requirement WILL take its toll at some point in the future on the supply of Certified Residential appraisers in Florida. That is, IF the state doesn't back down. Just FYI, Florida is ranked #1 in mortgage fraud for the second year in a row - did you know that?

But MANY other states have a huge problem; they still issue the Licensed category and the 2008 requirements do not affect them. California and Michigan are two of those states, in particular, that have huge numbers of Licensed appraisers. Getting in the business in those states will remain a cake-walk.

Here is what I like to see:

FL RD0005004 PAGAN JOSE Suspension 01/24/2008 01/24/2009
FL RD0000627 PENA ANTHONY Suspension 03/18/2008 09/18/2009
FL RD0001347 PRENDERGAS KORRI Suspension 05/21/2008 --
FL RD0005215 SPENTHOFF JAMIE Suspension 03/18/2008 03/18/2009
FL RD0004910 EASTMAN JONATHAN Revocation 03/21/2008 --
FL RD0003340 GAUTHIER TERRY Revocation 03/21/2008 --
FL RD0003471 OLIVERIO BENNETT Revocation 03/18/2008 --
FL RD0005314 SCOTT BENJAMIN Revocation 12/24/2007 --
FL RD0001568 SULLINS STEPHEN Revocation 01/15/2008 --
FL RD0004683 HUBBARD JOSHUA Voluntary S 12/24/2007 --
FL RD0000214 LATHAM TOBIAS Voluntary S 12/28/2007 --
FL RD0003560 LOGAN RICK Voluntary S 12/24/2007 --

That is from this morning's ASC e-mail. Unfortunately, I haven't seen similar data for FL appraisers in a long time. In sharp contrast I see expirations from CA every day, 80%+ Licensed appraisers.

At least until 11/30/08 (license renewal) hope like hell things get much worse in Florida. Maybe about 40% of the appraisers we have here will go back to waiting tables and changing tires at Sears, whatever they were doing before they found appraising.

In a year or so IRS will be going after the appraisers who failed to make estimated payments, failed to file returns and pay taxes for '06 and '07 and consequently, will be facing heavy penalties and interest. MLS dues are due early 6/08, annual board dues 12/08. Expenses for annual software, E&O, CE, license renewal and on and on are starting to come due for the second year in a row since the downturn began. Oh…don’t forget gas prices. You'll see some real fall-out in FL by 11/30.

Cheers -
MP
 
What follows 'fast and cheap' and 'giving clients what they want'?
I guess it would be 'always hit value' and 'don't be a problem' and
'free comp checks'. So after we get to that level, what comes next?

I don't think much will improve until it gets worse and the over supply of
appraisers ends. I don't think lifting our skirts will improve our reputation.

Hey Elliot -

I've been reading posts and responding with the same comments about the oversupply of appraisers since I joined in '04. Seems to me a lot of appraisers (veterans included) have been slow to accept/acknowledge the notion that an oversupply exists. The usual debate about low AMC fees, in particular, bores me to death.

EVERYBODY NEEDS TO READ POST #13 BY HATCH FIVE TIMES.

So..."what comes next", you ask. Heck, I don't know. The ASB appears to have forgotten what they meant by "sole personal control of affixing the signature." And I hate to tell you but appraisers have already over-ruled AO-19; comp checks are the norm. Furthermore, many appraisers can and will make the case for why they should be allowed.

IMO the OP might not be far off; my bet is the ASB is more inclined to make "lifting our skirts" more acceptable long before the will make it less acceptable.

The ASB hasn't demonstrated much in the way of backbone to me. I'm still waiting for one of the "movers and shakers" in our field to write the great expose detailing why the public trust in appraising has been strengthened by TAF.

However, I do see the phrase "public trust in appraising" being mentioned more and more. Perhaps one day appraisers will grasp the concept that if we make the public trust our master instead of the mortgage industry and start to encourage and take pride in the public actually relying on our work as a basis for making financial decisions we can turn this VOCATION around.

Cheers -
MP
 
Quality Threshold

The current price equilibrium for lender work is set by supply and demand. As long as appraisers are willing to produce reports at lower and lower prices to meet the demand, the price will keep sliding downward.

If an appraiser's productivity rises in a greater proportion to the decrease in price, revenues can be preserved. What price productivity? Streamlining the steps to increase productivity are limited. The Disto, dual monitors, Auto GPS, mapping software all contribute to saving time but these savings quickly run out the ability to produce more reports in less time.

Most appraisers have come to terms with USPAP and working through Scope of Work to do only what is necessary to meet lender requirements. The same is true for the Fannie Mae guidelines that only require the exterior dimensions for a sketch, for instance, where some appraisers labor through taking the time to sketch the interior.

What is left? There is such a low threshold of lender expectations, that a solution is not possible. Appraisers are rightfully asking how can the product I produce be worth so little? The answer is that there is no demand for the product produced by an appraiser attempting to produce a quality product.

In the last three reviews of appraisal reports I have completed, the request was the same. Furnish more comparables and more listings. Each of the three reports have commonality. Each used MLS pictures for comparables. Each had no discussion of current market conditions and one had no comments at all in the space provided for market conditions. None supported the land value other than as one said, "land value has been abstracted from the market." In no case were adjustments supported or explained. "A lick and a promise," my grandmother would say.

The last review was on a log house in a remote area. There were many adjustments, some very large. The opinion of value was $350,000 and gross adjustments were between $40,000 to $50,000. Yet there was no explanation or support for adjustment at all.

Here is the sum total of the summary of the sales comparison approach.

All three sales are considered in my final estimate of value. Based on my analysis and in my opinion Sale #2 is most influential and most like the subject. Sales #1 and #3 are also influential and in my opinion reflective of the upper and lower end of the market, as it relates to the subject

Ok. I got this to report to review it but the lender makes it clear they only want to come up with some comps and listings, the issue of quality is completely missed. I am sure the company will continue to use this appraiser.

There is no hope. The market for most residential appraisals is largely made up of lenders who neither recognize nor expect quality work. If appraisers are trying to meet the demand for a fully USPAP compliant and supported opinion of value, they are on the wrong supply curve. Appraisers keep blaming Skippy. Skippy is only producing the reports that meet the expectations of the market.

Comments in the reviews I do are taking the form of boiler plate.."MLS photographs used in this report are taken from MLS sources without attribution or explanation." I doubt anything I point out in a review is taken very seriously, however. That is the problem.
 
To claim that "trainees" are the problem is never an unpopular comment here.

Sandy's title is true in any profession. The idea of a productive work ethic is what is never really questioned here, or anywhere anymore. I was instilled with a strong work ethic as a child. This has been my saving grace, yet also has led to much frustration. Ex. I went to the Marines because I thought that everyone there would give 100%, wow was I wrong! I became a teacher, because I wanted to instil a work ethic into budding citizens. I've been losing that battle for the past ten years. Everything taught during the day is quickly untaught during the night. The examples go on and on. In appraising, I have noticed that those who have been around for a long time and created good clients, are surviving. However, those who haven't been around for a long time are having a real eye-opener. I am happy about the new "weeding out" requirements that have been implemented into the licensing structure. If this career is going to be a good career, then those who make it will have to develop a very strong work ethic.
 
Even working for AMC's at reduced fees is better than what this poster envision. We need to encourage full fee or close to it pay etc, not try to "compete" with BPO's etc. Like someone else said, if that is what you wish to do, give up appraisal license and go do it. There is room and a need for both products, just like there are fast food restaurants and fine dining establishments. If the fine restuarants thought gee, we better start serving $2 burgers to compete with MCdonalds, they'd be suicidal. They could never compete on that level, and they don't need to, they offer a better dining experience that a smaller group of people is willing to pay more for.
 
Heck, we don't have to adapt at all. The lenders could just decide they don't need appraisers anymore. Then what would you do? Hopefully, we will have a chance to adapt, but the answer is not BPO's and comp checks.


Here is something to think about. If they want it fast and cheap. Learn what you can do to accomodate. You may not be fast enough or cheap enough, then you need to decide whether it is worth it for you to stay in the business. My experience tells me that most appraisers are cranky and purposely slow just because they think they can. That is not so anymore. If you prove you can work harder and faster and find a price within your means, it may be the only path to survival in this business.

The good news is that not everybody wants faster and cheaper. Typically it is the AMC's that want that. They are charging the lenders more than we charge the lenders. We need a way to break the AMC's control over our business. In actuality, we can deliver faster than the AMC if we tried. Since the AMC's have proven their need to the lenders, shouldn't it be our job to prove the lenders don't need the AMC's?

Frankly, faster should not be an issue for appraisers. Pricing should be an issue.
 
You cannot compete with free or near free. If you cannot provide a value added service, you are just competing for the bottom.

Thank you. If one thinks supplying a cheap and fast product and sees that as their future thats ok. I wish you luck.
 
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