Adjustment Software

[RCA]

She's sharp, very sharp.

Yea, but that's all relative. She is a run-of-the-mill, albeit, it appears, a somewhat "higher" caliber appraiser than most. She wouldn't get the positions she gets unless she were a system conformist and able to get the required throughput with the tools she is given.

----

Anyway, I ran through the new Fannie Mae video, "The Industries Guide to the URAR."

Focus somewhat on the "Sales Comparison Approach" section near the end. But you should of course, see the entire video.

1. The new focus will be collecting complex objective data, with less opportunity to make subjective comments. That is as it should be. It will slow the appraiser up considerably, and in the end, we will find that despite all the checkboxes, data integrity will be questionable in many cases. Just like Real Estate agents filling out their checkboxes for new listings in their MLS. Same 'ol, same 'ol. Time pressure and what have you.

2. Ahhh ... but look, where are the mechanics of the adjustment process? Yes, they are pretty much missing. They are moving the average appraiser AWAY from making those critical adjustments. Yes, you get to use the dumb Aloft adjustment software - or eventually Jeff's "Night Hawk," - he says, based on statistical models created by PhDs in Statistics. We will have to wait for that promise to materialize, - which is not likely to be fulfilled IMO.

What should I say here? Yes: There continues to be this assumption that appraisal values are nothing more than some appraiser's opinion. The industry thinks there is a safety factor in that. Don't worry about the details. But, get those "appraisers" to collect data for the computers better. There is no doubt in anyone's mind that that is a good thing to do, no matter what else.

- But it can be highly unproductive to collect data - as many facts you might think are essential for valuation ARE NOT. Someone is going to be wasting time and money. But so what - as long as you are not the one doing the work.

The Catcher is, that most appraisals can be proven to be incorrect. There are mathematical constraints and so on.

Someone is going to get sued for invalid appraisals. For appraisals biased by Fannie Mae/Freddie Mac stupidity. Yes, they are stupid. The whole system is. In fact, I suppose TAF and its partners are the most culpable, as appraisers are simply not trained correctly in valuation. --- And no one can do anything about it. Except maybe attorneys and lawsuits. Now, that is somewhat promising, one way or another.

But courts aren't like that, i.e., they don't allow justification for unfair acts because of some highfalutin subjective opinions - when logic and math dictate otherwise. Yea, I SAY those dumb valuations can be nailed in court. Beyond a shadow of a doubt.

And you are all wasting your time, lying to yourself.

 

[Surf Cat]

And don't forget, comps considered but NOT USED.

Oh what fun!

No other competitive sales were considered, the comparables utilized in this report were the best.

 

[shrubberyvaluation]

No other competitive sales were considered, the comparables utilized in this report were the best.

I considered 1600 Pennsylvania Ave NW but it wasn't as comparable.

 

[Surf Cat]

I considered 1600 Pennsylvania Ave NW but it wasn't as comparable.

The appraiser considered no other comparables as the appraiser knows the AMC client will choose sales for them... which the appraiser will not consider. Thank you

 

[RCA]

Yea, but that's all relative. She is a run-of-the-mill, albeit, it appears, a somewhat "higher" caliber appraiser than most. She wouldn't get the positions she gets unless she were a system conformist and able to get the required throughput with the tools she is given.

----

Anyway, I ran through the new Fannie Mae video, "The Industries Guide to the URAR."

Focus somewhat on the "Sales Comparison Approach" section near the end. But you should of course, see the entire video.

1. The new focus will be collecting complex objective data, with less opportunity to make subjective comments. That is as it should be. It will slow the appraiser up considerably, and in the end, we will find that despite all the checkboxes, data integrity will be questionable in many cases. Just like Real Estate agents filling out their checkboxes for new listings in their MLS. Same 'ol, same 'ol. Time pressure and what have you.

2. Ahhh ... but look, where are the mechanics of the adjustment process? Yes, they are pretty much missing. They are moving the average appraiser AWAY from making those critical adjustments. Yes, you get to use the dumb Aloft adjustment software - or eventually Jeff's "Night Hawk," - he says, based on statistical models created by PhDs in Statistics. We will have to wait for that promise to materialize, - which is not likely to be fulfilled IMO.

What should I say here? Yes: There continues to be this assumption that appraisal values are nothing more than some appraiser's opinion. The industry thinks there is a safety factor in that. Don't worry about the details. But, get those "appraisers" to collect data for the computers better. There is no doubt in anyone's mind that that is a good thing to do, no matter what else.

- But it can be highly unproductive to collect data - as many facts you might think are essential for valuation ARE NOT. Someone is going to be wasting time and money. But so what - as long as you are not the one doing the work.

The Catcher is, that most appraisals can be proven to be incorrect. There are mathematical constraints and so on.

Someone is going to get sued for invalid appraisals. For appraisals biased by Fannie Mae/Freddie Mac stupidity. Yes, they are stupid. The whole system is. In fact, I suppose TAF and its partners are the most culpable, as appraisers are simply not trained correctly in valuation. --- And no one can do anything about it. Except maybe attorneys and lawsuits. Now, that is somewhat promising, one way or another.

But courts aren't like that, i.e., they don't allow justification for unfair acts because of some highfalutin subjective opinions - when logic and math dictate otherwise. Yea, I SAY those dumb valuations can be nailed in court. Beyond a shadow of a doubt.

And you are all wasting your time, lying to yourself.

I can imagine someone creating a website named something like RealValue.com that displays mathematically consistent values for all homes, - and sells an extensive report for an extra charge. Homes for sale or just sold reports would go for $40 or so. If you want to sue TAF or someone you hold responsible for giving you a misleading report - we have a list of attorneys and appraisers ….

 

[RCA]

I can imagine someone creating a website named something like RealValue.com that displays mathematically consistent values for all homes, - and sells an extensive report for an extra charge. Homes for sale or just sold reports would go for $40 or so. If you want to sue TAF or someone you hold responsible for giving you a misleading report - we have a list of attorneys and appraisers ….

Now we enter a new world of appraisal - where appraisers will have to know their SH** inside and out: (1) They will have to have strict protocols, (2) They will have to have strict highly engineered and well-tested code, (3) They will need to understand advanced statistics and very importantly: (4) They will need to be able to create graphs and displays that can display sometimes complex models in a way that judges, juries and of course attorneys, can understand.

This sounds so appealing to me.

No, I do not want to do appraisals for Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac. Just the opposite, they are the real enemy, along with many other organizations.

 

[Sadie]

She's sharp, very sharp. Had a very long conversation with her, she's impressive and passionate about the software. Where I disagree, and strongly disagree, is the idea that if it can be measured it should be accounted for with an adjustment or an explanation as to why the adjustment is 0. And what I mean by "if it can be measured", think nearly every single feature UAD 2.0 wants reported; High speed internet, front door elevation which ties into flood zone, etc. If there are differences there will be questions. That's where we are headed with UAD 2.0 and baking photo recognition, scan to sketch software, and adjustment software into the process.

I am leery of firms like Aloft who billed themselves as technology companies that just happen to do appraisals. I agree with you on the if if can be measured comment. Just because it can be measured doesn't it has value, and how is measured determined? Everything can be measured, but does 3 extra SF on a patio matter?