CGinMN
Senior Member
- Joined
- May 20, 2011
- Professional Status
- Certified General Appraiser
- State
- Minnesota
*On-site observation by appraisers is going away. Floorplans and digital walkthroughs will be created by homeowners via smartphone. The majority of homes will not require any third-party observation AI might flag some properties for individual observation if it detects potential defects, but those will be completed by home inspectors, not appraisers.
*AI agents will be used in the remaining tasks including comp selection, data analysis, adjustment extraction, data input, and narrative writing. Each step can be done in a matter of minutes.
*Appraisers provide an oversight/review function. How many reports can the average reviewer complete in a day? Maybe 1 per hour?
*The process will get so efficient and cheap that GSE waivers might not even be necessary. Why waive any valuation when 24-hour turnaround and $150 cost becomes the norm?
*The profession will consolidate around a dozen or so national firms specializing in GSE work. Assume we need a capacity for 500,000 appraisals per month. That's ~17,000 per day, or ~2,100 per hour. With each assignment taking an hour, that's 2,100 appraisers needed. We might need closer to 5,000, assuming some inefficiencies. That works out to 100 appraisers per state for GSE work.
*I would say this could be less than 5 years away. All of this was probably unimaginable 5 years ago, so who knows what other advances will happen over the next 5 years.
*AI agents will be used in the remaining tasks including comp selection, data analysis, adjustment extraction, data input, and narrative writing. Each step can be done in a matter of minutes.
*Appraisers provide an oversight/review function. How many reports can the average reviewer complete in a day? Maybe 1 per hour?
*The process will get so efficient and cheap that GSE waivers might not even be necessary. Why waive any valuation when 24-hour turnaround and $150 cost becomes the norm?
*The profession will consolidate around a dozen or so national firms specializing in GSE work. Assume we need a capacity for 500,000 appraisals per month. That's ~17,000 per day, or ~2,100 per hour. With each assignment taking an hour, that's 2,100 appraisers needed. We might need closer to 5,000, assuming some inefficiencies. That works out to 100 appraisers per state for GSE work.
*I would say this could be less than 5 years away. All of this was probably unimaginable 5 years ago, so who knows what other advances will happen over the next 5 years.
