Am I crazy for trying to enter the appraisal industry at this time?

[IlliniApp]

Mine is mineral rights and I do mostly non-residential property - none of which is secondary market. I just took my first "residential property" assignment Monday. It's a new 6,300 SF dwelling on 230 acres. 6 parcels, lake view on one side, lake front on the other... not a $500 appraisal.

Must be for Hillary and Bill

 

[Joe Flacco]

Depends on what your expectations are. Short term and long term.

 

[chad hampton]

It's pretty much a part time side job at this point. It's a good side gig, make some extra money, but there are a lot of forces trying to steal the business away from small business and put it into the hands of nationwide AMC/appraisal mills. And even though laws and rules prohibit much of what they do, there is no enforcement. Large companies don't worry about things like laws, rules, or licensing boards. Best of luck, but I'd think twice before spending too much to get into this. I'd take my time and wait it out then decide before things expire.

 

[David S]

Hello, all, my name is Rory. I'm new to the forum. I live in Lubbock, Tx and am in the process of completing my trainee classes online. I know real estate is slow right now. Is there much of a chance someone is hiring, even part time? If not I guess I'll wait for the market to improve, and while I wait I'll continue taking classes towards either my certified general or licensed residential.

Can people share their opinions on the market and if they can recommend an appraiser or appraisal company in Lubbock, I might contact?

Many Thanks

Seems lots of senior appraiser quit the license from this year. I got lots of quote recently, but only with $200~$300 fee for the full appraisal. I also got lots of AMC invitation to join in the panel. But all are low, low fee AMC. Get the pictures?

 

[Fernando]

Real estate has cycles with its good times and bad times. Right now is worst I'd experience.
Mortgage rates are too high and many investors' rate of return has to be higher than 7%.
I got a call from a real estate agent regarding his listing. I felt sorry for him. Few investor buyers right now.
You can still make money if one is shrewd and more risk taker. Too many government regulations and interference have deterred me in investing.
Also not many want to refinance. Thus, few appraisals to do.
I have overheard expense to pay and will lose money this year.
Hopefully, mortgage rates will get lower later this year and our appraisal business will get busy again.

 

[David S]

Real estate has cycles with its good times and bad times. Right now is worst I'd experience.
Mortgage rates are too high and many investors' rate of return has to be higher than 7%.
I got a call from a real estate agent regarding his listing. I felt sorry for him. Few investor buyers right now.
You can still make money if one is shrewd and more risk taker. Too many government regulations and interference have deterred me in investing.
Also not many want to refinance. Thus, few appraisals to do.
I have overheard expense to pay and will lose money this year.
Hopefully, mortgage rates will get lower later this year and our appraisal business will get busy again.

Appraisal volume follows loan volume. No loan, no appraisal. Right now more than 80% loan agent is idle. They said more than 70% appraiser is idle as well.

 

[Fernando]

Appraisal volume follows loan volume. No loan, no appraisal. Right now more than 80% loan agent is idle. They said more than 70% appraiser is idle as well.

Like in most fields, top 10% makes most of the money. The good real estate agents I see with their for sale signs show they are still working.

 

[Sandra Koutsopoulos]

The confusion now with the NAR lawsuit re: co-broke compensations has even caused potential sellers to be confused. A potential listing has fallen into my lap this week, and Seller asked me about that, then I find NAR thinks they are getting Realtors prepped for the "new" system, then suddenly the DOJ has put off any final decision until November I hear. That will throw a few pebbles on the path, but it will be worked out. I'm hearing the Fed is planning to reduce the rate soon (30-45 days????), and that should goose the market. Lots of pent-up demand. But of course that doesn't solve the initial poster's dilemma.

With Core Logic having access at our expense to everything in ala Mode, they are destroying the residential appraisers' livelihood. I'm sure they would like all lenders to pay them tribute fee and provide 'The Number' at the push of a button for 80%-90% of the loans out there. Like any parasite, they are killing their host, plus we pay $500-$2500/year to use their software on top of it, as they absorb the data in our reports.

Would I recommend someone to start on the road to become an appraiser? Nope. Hard to get a mentor even after all the classes, mortgage loan appraising is scarce and pays the same as it did 25 years ago but requires more than double the work... You might as well go to work for McDonalds... probably pays better and is consistent income. Need for Appraisers General will likely continue, but much of that is highly specialized and takes many years to become an authority, such as for appraising land for minerals, shopping centers, imminent domain, subdivision development... you don't learn those skills overnight; mentors in those areas are extremely rare. You're likely not to be offered that kind of work until you show years of proficiency.

Overall, IMO from Dodd/Frank going forward, the system has been twisted into eliminating appraisers as much as possible, and I suspect the economy is going to find itself up against some very bad housing loans in the end with these push-of-a-button valuation systems. By then most of us appraisers will be dead, retired, or moved on into actual income-producing line of work. Even with Google Earth, a valuations program can't see inside a property to evaluate condition, upgrades, view etc. Zillow thought they had the key to seeing trends and values and offered push-of-a-button values... but it didn't work for them either, and they suffered financially for it.

For now and the immediate future, appraising offers a shrinking clientele. I would recommend looking into an area which has growing demand. What will society's needs be tomorrow? As always, "Find a need, and fill it".

 

[Zoe]

The confusion now with the NAR lawsuit re: co-broke compensations has even caused potential sellers to be confused. A potential listing has fallen into my lap this week, and Seller asked me about that, then I find NAR thinks they are getting Realtors prepped for the "new" system, then suddenly the DOJ has put off any final decision until November I hear. That will throw a few pebbles on the path, but it will be worked out. I'm hearing the Fed is planning to reduce the rate soon (30-45 days????), and that should goose the market. Lots of pent-up demand. But of course that doesn't solve the initial poster's dilemma.

With Core Logic having access at our expense to everything in ala Mode, they are destroying the residential appraisers' livelihood. I'm sure they would like all lenders to pay them tribute fee and provide 'The Number' at the push of a button for 80%-90% of the loans out there. Like any parasite, they are killing their host, plus we pay $500-$2500/year to use their software on top of it, as they absorb the data in our reports.

Would I recommend someone to start on the road to become an appraiser? Nope. Hard to get a mentor even after all the classes, mortgage loan appraising is scarce and pays the same as it did 25 years ago but requires more than double the work... You might as well go to work for McDonalds... probably pays better and is consistent income. Need for Appraisers General will likely continue, but much of that is highly specialized and takes many years to become an authority, such as for appraising land for minerals, shopping centers, imminent domain, subdivision development... you don't learn those skills overnight; mentors in those areas are extremely rare. You're likely not to be offered that kind of work until you show years of proficiency.

Overall, IMO from Dodd/Frank going forward, the system has been twisted into eliminating appraisers as much as possible, and I suspect the economy is going to find itself up against some very bad housing loans in the end with these push-of-a-button valuation systems. By then most of us appraisers will be dead, retired, or moved on into actual income-producing line of work. Even with Google Earth, a valuations program can't see inside a property to evaluate condition, upgrades, view etc. Zillow thought they had the key to seeing trends and values and offered push-of-a-button values... but it didn't work for them either, and they suffered financially for it.

For now and the immediate future, appraising offers a shrinking clientele. I would recommend looking into an area which has growing demand. What will society's needs be tomorrow? As always, "Find a need, and fill it".

When the market falls (and it will), is when people will get in trouble including the gses, AMCs, appraisers. A mentor I worked with a long time told me he had seen many drops in the market and that is when appraisers get in trouble. This time, it won't be all appraisers that get in trouble.

 

[Zoe]

OTOH, there are many residential assignments out there where there is no way an AVM can get even get remotely close to MV opinion. If you live in cookie cutterville, your assignments are already dwindling. Do I believe gses are doing waivers on assignments that will get them in trouble? Absolutely.

AMCs will be in trouble too.