Another "paired" appraisal allegation, Seattle

[George Hatch]

Right now is end of 2022. Were prices lower in April 2022 than 2021?

You are trying really hard to make your case and being even borderline misleading. You know clearly that prices were higher in April 2022 than in 2021. At the last you can pretend that April 2022 is stable from mid-2021, and if you can agree to at least that then there is no reason to say that the sales on the street are not applicable.

I have shown several 1bd C4s in addition to the one on the subject block that you like so much. All of them more recent to a -04/2022 appraisal than the 3 from mid-2021. A couple of them have no onsite parking. A couple are even in inferior condition, so there's some bracketing. So if we list all of these C4s and borderline C3s your one sale will be all the way at the top and our subject will end up below the median. I would never ignore the sales history on that block, but neither do I see any reason to jump to the conclusion that this block is more special than any of the others. And since none of the listings mention this part of the neighborhood as being special that tells me the brokers didn't think to mention the pixie dust that would make it special.

So regardless if pricing in the macro were still going up in early 2022, the sales of similar attributes which are more recent to that date will be more current than the ones that are more dated. You know that. You also know that no one sale makes or breaks.

 

[Joe Flacco]

3526 S Bennett St, Seattle, WA 98118 | Zillow

3526 S Bennett St, Seattle WA, is a Single Family home that contains 1650 sq ft and was built in 1919.It contains 4 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms.This home last sold for $861,000 in August 2021. The Zestimate for this Single Family is $888,000, which has decreased by $17,240 in the last 30 days.The...

www.zillow.com

This one is on Bennett, what does it say to you?

View attachment 69999

That is one of the four homes on the street.

$861,000 - $40,000 (for finished basement with bathroom) - $50,000 for condition (Based on comparison with the house next door for $780,000)

Other considerations..

Change in market conditions
Finished space on upper level

 

[Joe Flacco]

Let's just look at these since you guys have problems with big condition adjustments.

Main level all same SF.
3541 has finished upper level other two do not
3537 has small portion of basement that has old finishes the other two are unfinished
3540 was updated in the past and the other two are in need of updating

Based on these two the value is around $780k-$800k as of mid-2021?

Why are these bad comps?

 

[George Hatch]

Whatever the hard costs are, the discounts for condition will be double the hard costs. Flippers never work for free.

 

[George Hatch]

View attachment 70002

Let's just look at these since you guys have problems with big condition adjustments.

Main level all same SF.
3541 has finished upper level other two do not
3537 has small portion of basement that has old finishes the other two are unfinished
3540 was updated in the past and the other two are in need of updating

Based on these two the value is around $780k-$800k as of mid-2021?

Why are these bad comps?

If they related to the other more recent C4 sales I might agree with you, but they don't. I will add the point that the other sales are located in all 4 directions from this block. The subject's own prior sale demonstrates that neither the location nor the design" was special to that seller.

Sometimes a cigar is just a cigar.

 

[Joe Flacco]

If they related to the other more recent C4 sales I might agree with you, but they don't. I will add the point that the other sales are located in all 4 directions from this block. The subject's own prior sale demonstrates the location wasn't special to that seller.

Sometimes a cigar is just a cigar.

The effective date we are working with is April 2022. Or according to Cgmin November 2021.

I don't know which 4 you are talking about but of the 2 I know you are talking about nearby one of them fronts a six lane street and the other is a cheap flip ugly house.

Why are those two around $700k better than the two above on the street for around $800k?

 

[George Hatch]

As far as a 3/1-C4-no parking subject goes there are a number of sales below $700k that could be cited in an SC. Not just 1 or two. Just on the list I posted there are 6 sales under $700k and none of them are smaller than $1000sf. I excluded a couple more that were actual beaters. I even found another beater that was marketed as land (It isn't land, it's flip-bait). And that's just using the sales being shown in Zillow. If I had direct access to the local MLS this whole comparo would be much faster/easier.

The point is, I think it's a mistake to consider $700k as the lower limit of value. Among the many it clearly isn't.

I haven't referred to either WRT the C4 properties. I only mention the "super ugly" in this later exchange because you were talking about location. That sale had not yet occurred as of 04/2022.

But since you're continuing on with the 10/2022 sale with the traffic location, there are non-traffic location sales which disprove the idea of a $200k location adjustment. We even have SFR lot sales in the area at $300k-$350k (I looked). So that ain't it. I think the 10/2022 sale might be the victim of the financing.

I really don't even know why we're talking about $800k because the 2nd appraisal was brought in at $929k, not $800k.

 

[Joe Flacco]

Ignoring the 2-3 between $780k and $860k on the street which are most similar home styles on the same lots and are all smaller above grade if including the finished attic level comes across as going out of the way to lower the value to me.

 

[George Hatch]

I keep saying this and you keep glossing over it: I never said, suggested or implied ignoring the 2 remodels and the 1 beater from mid-2021. But they still don't outweigh the TREND being demonstrated by the more recent C4 sales data.

We do most probable as evidenced by the many, not the extra special as demonstrated by the one beater.

Try this one on for size: $670k + minimum of $90k in hard costs + $90k in contingencies and profit margin + (at least) $15k for the lack of onsite parking = $865k. That's what would square the subject's "as is" with the $861k sale at 3526 Bennett.

 

[Joe Flacco]

Why are you talking about more recent data when the effective date is April 2022 or November 2021?

It makes no difference to me which appraisal value in the news is correct. Based on the sales on the street one is low and one is high.

For some reason you really want the low appraisal to be right. You are looking for reasons why the low one is right. Not being objective.