Any appraisers buying these foreclosures?

[beowulf]

Buying foreclosures is a bit like investing in the stock market right now. You never know if your buying at the bottom. We are entering uncharted waters with the economy and there are as many experts out there forecasting the worst is yet to come as there are those saying that we have already hit the bottom. If you buy now and the market continues to decline into 2009, you will be very old before you see your investment make a return for you. When the housing market comes back, it will not be like it was before where you could expect a nice quick profit on a resale. Any long-term appreciation in housing will be modest at best and not be the investment product that it once was, but rather what it became after the last great depression, just a roof over one's head. Best advice - stay out of both housing and stock market until there has been a solid trend established that we are in a recovery period.

 

[Steve Metz]

BTW.. shorting the market is not investing it is speculation.

You are absolutely right Riick. I think anything to do with the stock market is gambling and I treat it as such. It is good to have a diversified portfolio of Tbills, Gold, Real Estate,Art and Angel startup investments. I am not into going to Vegas but using my knowledge of the oil,banking and real estate industries I can play the market in those sectors. I learned a long time ago not to have everything tied up in just stocks or real estate. Too bad I didn't learn that lesson about investing my time. I invested too much of it in this business LOL

 

[Mike Siegfried]

Buying foreclosures is a bit like investing in the stock market right now. You never know if your buying at the bottom. We are entering uncharted waters with the economy and there are as many experts out there forecasting the worst is yet to come as there are those saying that we have already hit the bottom. If you buy now and the market continues to decline into 2009, you will be very old before you see your investment make a return for you. When the housing market comes back, it will not be like it was before where you could expect a nice profit on a resale. Any long-term appreciation in housing will be modest at best and probably not be the investment product that it once was, but rather what it became after the last great depression, just a roof over one's head. Best advice - stay out of both housing and stock market until there has been a solid trend established that we are in a recovery period.

Sound advice, Lee. My thought as well. I'd rather miss the bottom and pay 10% more in a rising market than jump too soon and lose another 30%....or more.

Mike

 

[Last Jack]

Buying foreclosures is a bit like investing in the stock market right now. You never know if your buying at the bottom. We are entering uncharted waters with the economy and there are as many experts out there forecasting the worst is yet to come as there are those saying that we have already hit the bottom. If you buy now and the market continues to decline into 2009, you will be very old before you see your investment make a return for you. When the housing market comes back, it will not be like it was before where you could expect a nice quick profit on a resale. Any long-term appreciation in housing will be modest at best and not be the investment product that it once was, but rather what it became after the last great depression, just a roof over one's head. Best advice - stay out of both housing and stock market until there has been a solid trend established that we are in a recovery period.

The bold-faced statement is just flat-out wrong...in my opinion. And while I understand why you are apprehensive I will tell you that those who can buy now will within 5 years clean up big. Buy when there is blood in the streets. When everyone else is running out, you should be running in to see what you can pick up for yourself. Those w/ the buy & hold strategy will make a killing. This will be my second go 'round of buying during the panic and I have been waiting for this since about 2002. There is no reason for somebody with the insight of an appraiser to not be buying as much rental property as they can handle. Now is when positive cash-flow is attainable and if your rents cover your expenses you can't lose unless you do something really stupid along the way. You know the saying buy low, sell high? Well it's low, perhaps not at the bottom yet but you know that it's going to get higher again - it always does.

 

[Riick]

It's a rare person who can catch the Market Low - except by accident.

 

[Last Jack]

There is no such thing as an accident and luck is when preparation meets with opportunity. The opportunity is presenting itself and as an appraiser you should be prepared.

 

[Greg Bell]

Unless you are prepared for a 1930's style depression it's best to sit back and wait for the coming uber crash...Monetary that is...

 

[Riick]

There is no such thing as an accident and luck is when preparation meets with opportunity.

"There are no Accidents."
Thank You, Herr Doktor Freud.

 

[Greg Bell]

The bold-faced statement is just flat-out wrong...in my opinion. And while I understand why you are apprehensive I will tell you that those who can buy now will within 5 years clean up big. Buy when there is blood in the streets. When everyone else is running out, you should be running in to see what you can pick up for yourself. Those w/ the buy & hold strategy will make a killing. This will be my second go 'round of buying during the panic and I have been waiting for this since about 2002. There is no reason for somebody with the insight of an appraiser to not be buying as much rental property as they can handle. Now is when positive cash-flow is attainable and if your rents cover your expenses you can't lose unless you do something really stupid along the way. You know the saying buy low, sell high? Well it's low, perhaps not at the bottom yet but you know that it's going to get higher again - it always does.

Please...That's what Tommy Lamont preached in 1930.Everyone was even by 1954.....Now that's a time line.All of the so called "Long term" investors will need to be very young to get any appreciation out of this market.Just buy and hold for 25 years and maybe you eek out a profit....just buy beans and ammo..now that's safe..
:new_2gunsfiring_v1:

 

[TJSum]

Please...That's what Tommy Lamont preached in 1930.Everyone was even by 1954.....Now that's a time line.All of the so called "Long term" investors will need to be very young to get any appreciation out of this market.Just buy and hold for 25 years and maybe you eek out a profit....just buy beans and ammo..now that's safe..
:new_2gunsfiring_v1:

My red above, maybe those who bought at the peak in 1929 took until 1954 to break even. For those who bottom fed in the 1930's, a much different story.

Riick, is correct, the only way to buy at the exact bottom is by accident, how can one tell the bottom is here until values have already started moving up, you only will be able to see it in the rear view mirror.

No one knows what rate of appreciation will be seen in the future, it is all just a guess. But IMHO, when the bottom has passed, the largest gains will be seen in that first year when all those sitting on the sidelines insisting on waiting for the bottom rush in. Those who took the chance to buy before the bottom will see the biggest gains. One of the best indicators on how close the bottom is, is when rentals start producing a positive cash flow, the bottom could not be far off then IMHO.