Up until now, the reduction in work for many has been the result of fewer transactions (especially refis) overall--that's the 'duh' part. But also because the large AMCs are getting more and more appraisers on staff, and they gobble up all the decent orders. I've mentioned that at my peak I had well over 2 dozen decent clients. One by one, they switched to one of the big AMCs, and instantly, when they did, my orders disappeared. I did lose a few due to not hitting the sales price every time, but I didn't mind losing them. As I close out my appraiser career, I am down to ONE client. I did not ask to be removed from ANY of the other panels or lists, they simply stopped sending me orders. Even the ones where I had a good relationship with the local folks. They just didn't need my quality and price point for a 1004 any longer.
But now, once the need for a full 1004 basically disappears, I predict an even further big decline in 1004 orders. Not because hybrids are cheaper or faster, but because the AMC can make more money off of them. Even if a lender orders a 1004--the AMC will be quick to remind them that it MAY be eligible for a hybrid, and suggest they go back and check. They will tout the greater efficiency and speed (which does not exist), all while paying the poor sap staff appraiser the equivalent of $75 or so, while paying the 'inspector' $50 or so to take some pics. They might even lower the total fee to the lender just to encourage them to order the hybrid instead. If they were charging the lender $600 and giving $450 to the appraiser, now they can charge $500, while paying the two parties $125 or $150. More profit to the AMC, less cost to the lender, meaning more profit for them as well.
Again, I hope I am wrong for those here who want to continue in the business and need a good income--but I would be remiss if I didn't point out that you better be working on plan B, if not C and D...