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Appraisal Institute Controversy Part 2

RCA said:
The Fannie Mae forms are just spreadsheets. Full of numbers. Commercial appraisals are almost entirely focused on producing elaborate and complex spreadsheets with hundreds of calculations. Words are descriptions that are general in nature, very capable of deceiving and misleading.

I would be careful, if I were you, and you really believed what you say.


But, you know, I don't believe a word of it.
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I've read many of your posts carefully. You seem to believe you have found the best way of extracting adjustments using MARS statistical regression methodologies. That's fantastic. I commend and applaud the novel use of any methodology which assists the appraiser in developing a credible opinion of value. But I'm confused. Are you also saying that the use of other methods that are out side of statistically significant analysis are nothing more than unsupported nonsense?

If so, what is your proposed methodology for developing opinions of market value where the subject property is of a type where the universe of comparable sales is either not sufficient in number, or does not exhibit characteristics that derive statistically significant confident predictions?

It's perfectly reasonable to utilize regression or MARS modeling to derive adjustments when there is sufficient relevant data in the market to generate results at a significant confidence level. Since you have dismissed other methods as inaccurate, and used only by over the hill, pompous appraisers who believe they are god, like paired sales for example, what is your solution if data collection presents observations with high degrees of variability?

How does MARS work with conservation easement donation value opinions for IRS documentation? How about market values per ton for in ground green slate versus in ground red slate? I'm curious as to what variables would be in your model in the estimation of contributory values per acre of hydroelectric project associated flowage easements over tillable acreages versus pasturage. Though maybe something simpler, say the size adjustments for various categories of finished areas found within in-patient juvenile psychiatric hospitals? Would MARS help with impacts on value for mitigated landslide stigma, fuel oil contamination, post clean up, from the basement of a $2.5 mil. ski slope side vacation home?

Your own hubris reveals your inabilities. Sure mathematical consistency and solid statistical analytics is preferable. And the data is available with straightforward, commonly transferred property types with few and relatively invariant characteristics in markets with similar general price levels. But those are the assignments for beginners.

You've made the mistake of thinking that appraisers avoid using the tools you're an advocate of because they don't know their own tools are inaccurate and don't have proper education or experience with modern statistics. But that's not it at all. You just haven't received a tough assignment which is devoid of any applicability as to statistically significant analytics. You've made remarks which indicate a questionable grasp of the fundamental economic concepts that underlie the function of the appraiser.

You talk about attaining an accurate value. That's not even our job. Our assignments is provide a supported opinion of value. Not an accurate measure of it. And those words are not chosen arbitrarily. Value is not a fact to be found in the real estate market. Why? Because there is no way to measure it precisely; it is an imperfect market. Buyers and sellers have imperfect information about the property they are buying and selling; they have imperfect knowledge of the competition in regard to all of the potential alternative properties, the market inventory fluctuates, people have variable motivations and time frames, and on and on. The point is, the market participants themselves don't create an accurate value point.

That's why we have appraisers develop supportable opinions of value. Because that's the best you'll ever get. Use statistics if you can for sure. But if I'm reviewing an appraisal that simply uses statistic that aren't significant, and it's going to trial, I know country bumpkin attorney's who will make you look as smart as George's friend Lenny.

Of course those other tools have severe weaknesses. How effing stupid do you think we are? That's the job for crying out loud. To know how weak the data is, and come to conclusion that nevertheless are rational, reasonable, logical, and support the conclusions you reach. From what I've read in your comments, I don't believe you actually understand the process. I really question your competency frankly. I just hope to god one day you're on the other side of the a case I'm consulting for. Your over estimation of your own abilities talk volumes about your abilities to estimate at all.
 
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bsilver said:
I've read many of your posts carefully. You seem to believe you have found the best way of extracting adjustments using MARS statistical regression methodologies. That's fantastic. I commend and applaud the novel use of any methodology which assists the appraiser in developing a credible opinion of value. But I'm confused. Are you also saying that the use of other methods that are out side of statistically significant analysis are nothing more than unsupported nonsense?

If so, what is your proposed methodology for developing opinions of market value where the subject property is of a type where the universe of comparable sales is either not sufficient in number, or does not exhibit characteristics that derive statistically significant confident predictions?

It's perfectly reasonable to utilize regression or MARS modeling to derive adjustments when there is sufficient relevant data in the market to generate results at a significant confidence level. Since you have dismissed other methods as inaccurate, and used only by over the hill, pompous appraisers who believe they are god, like paired sales for example, what is your solution if data collection presents observations with high degrees of variability?

How does MARS work with conservation easement donation value opinions for IRS documentation? How about market values per ton for in ground green slate versus in ground red slate? I'm curious as to what variables would be in your model in the estimation of contributory values per acre of hydroelectric project associated flowage easements over tillable acreages versus pasturage. Though maybe something simpler, say the size adjustments for various categories of finished areas found within in-patient juvenile psychiatric hospitals? Would MARS help with impacts on value for mitigated landslide stigma, fuel oil contamination, post clean up, from the basement of a $2.5 mil. ski slope side vacation home?

Your own hubris reveals your inabilities. Sure mathematical consistency and solid statistical analytics is preferable. And the data is available with straightforward, commonly transferred property types with few and relatively invariant characteristics in markets with similar general price levels. But those are the assignments for beginners.

You've made the mistake of thinking that appraisers avoid using the tools you're an advocate of because they don't know their own tools are inaccurate and don't have proper education or experience with modern statistics. But that's not it at all. You just haven't received a tough assignment which is devoid of any applicability as to statistically significant analytics. You've made remarks which indicate a questionable grasp of the fundamental economic concepts that underlie the function of the appraiser.

You talk about attaining an accurate value. That's not even our job. Our assignments is provide a supported opinion of value. Not an accurate measure of it. And those words are not chosen arbitrarily. Value is not a fact to be found in the real estate market. Why? Because there is no way to measure it precisely; it is an imperfect market. Buyers and sellers have imperfect information about the property they are buying and selling; they have imperfect knowledge of the competition in regard to all of the potential alternative properties, the market inventory fluctuates, people have variable motivations and time frames, and on and on. The point is, the market participants themselves don't create an accurate value point.

That's why we have appraisers develop supportable opinions of value. Because that's the best you'll ever get. Use statistics if you can for sure. But if I'm reviewing an appraisal that simply uses statistic that aren't significant, and it's going to trial, I know country bumpkin attorney's who will make you look as smart as George's friend Lenny.

Of course those other tools have severe weaknesses. How effing stupid do you think we are? That's the job for crying out loud. To know how weak the data is, and come to conclusion that nevertheless are rational, reasonable, logical, and support the conclusions you reach. From what I've read in your comments, I don't believe you actually understand the process. I really question your competency frankly. I just hope to god one day you're on the other side of the a case I'm consulting for. Your over estimation of your own abilities talk volumes about your abilities to estimate at all.
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Oh no. Now you have done it. Prepare yourself to be called an idiot.
 
DWiley said:
I thought he already called us all that ??
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A Failed Software Engineer and Appraiser who contributed nothing but negativity and had nothing to sell but a goofy back from the future Flux Capacitor that he didn't even design or invent.

Silicon Valley was full of these old Carnudeons until about 15 years ago when the fired them all. Most retired or died but a few tried becoming appraisers but they failed at that to.
 
Bert just texted me, he said MARS subscriptions for everyone, and it's on him. What a guy.
 
Charles West said:
Bert just texted me, he said MARS subscriptions for everyone, and it's on him. What a guy.
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It was like $12,000 per year but our cheap
Wal Mart $150.00 Regression In A Box Program did everything and better.

He has no concept of marketing or sales and just couldn't understand that he's never finding anyone to ever pay that kind of money to do simple regression.
 
Now now...... the dude announced he was retiring.... cut him a little slack.
 
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